Sanksiya qúdayy OFAC minezin bilgendikten, Reseydegi birjalargha tyqyr tayanatyny әu basta belgili bolghan edi. Sondyqtan Mәskeu birjasy (Mosbirja, MOEX) men Últtyq kliringtik ortalyqqa salynghan sanksiya asa janalyq bolmady. SPB dep atalatyn Sankt-Peterburg birjasy sanksiyagha úshyraghaly beri, basqalary da dayyndalyp jýrgen bolatyn.

Sarapshylargha sanksiyadan keyingi valuta qúnyn anyqtau men aiyrbastau arhiytekturasy, yaghny rubli kursynyng baghamy birjadan tys ortada qalay qúrylatyny qyzyq bolyp otyr. Áriyne, mәselege ýstinen qarasaq, qatty ózgergen eshtene joq. Rubli búghan deyin de erkin konverttelmeytin jәne syrtqy saudada dollar/evro tandemimen baylanysyn ýzgen. Biraq qansha degenimen Mәskeu birjasynda investorlar, bankter bar valutalyq saudany qyzdyryp, dollar-rubli-evro alys-berisi jýrip, sodan rubliding naryqtyq qúny anyqtalyp kelgen edi.

Endi rubli qúny eki faktor arqyly belgilenbek.

Faktor 1. Bankterdegi, valuta aiyrbastau beketinde bekitilgen satu men satyp alu baghasynyng ortasha mәni. Bir sózben aitqanda, Sberbank dollardy 100 rublige satsa, al VTB 95, ATB 96 rublige satsa, onda onyng ortasha dengeyi 97 dep alynatyn bolady.

Faktor 2. Yuani arqyly jasalatyn kross-kurs. Kross-kurs degenimiz tikeley kotirovkasy joq valuta qúnyn basqa valuta arqyly anyqtau. Mosbirjada dollar men evro endi saudalanbasa da, yuani erkin satylady. Yuanining Mosbirjadaghy rublige shaqqandaghy kursyn alamyz da, Forex-tegi yuani/dollar júbyna kóz tigemiz. Sol arqyly rubliding әdiletti qúnyn eseptep alamyz.

Qazaqstangha qatysy bar ma?

Shyn aitsaq, búl qúbylystardyng Qazaqstangha dәl qazir tikeley әseri shamaly. Tek erteng mulitiplikativti úruy mýmkin. Mysaly, bolashaqta rubli qúny naryqtyq mehanizmderden mýlde tys qalatyn bolsa, onda bizding Reseymen saudamyzda disbalanstar payda bolady. Resey rubli qúnyn qoldan týsirip tastasa, bizding tauar óndirushiler qiyn jaghdaygha úrynbaq. Biz qazir Tayau Shyghys pen Ortalyq Aziyanyng astyq naryghynda Reseymen óte qatty bәsekege týsip otyrmyz. Iya, aitarlyqtay pariytet saqtalyp otyr, biraq rubli qúlasa Resey astyghy syrtqy naryqtar ýshin әldeqayda tiyimdi bolyp shygha keledi. Dәl osynday jaghday uran jәne múnay ónimderine de qatysty.

Sanksiyagha úshyraghan Mosbirja bizdegi Qazaqstan qor birjasynyng (KASE) aksionerlerining biri. Biz óz birjamyzda osy Mosbirjanyng tehnologiyalyq platformasyn qoldanamyz. Kezinde satyp alghanbyz. Aksioner retinde Mosbirjanyng bizdegi ýlesi ýlken emes – 13,1%. Sondyqtan bizge janama sanksiya kelmeydi. Ol kelu ýshin Mosbirja bizding 51 payyzdan kem emes aksiyamyzdy ústap otyruy tiyis edi. Biraq sanksiya tiziminde túrghan mekemening sende aksioner bolyp otyruy naryqqa jaghymdy signal emesi anyq. Sondyqtan KASE kelissózder bastap, Mosbirjany basqa aksionerge almastyryp kóretin bolady. Tipti osy ýlesti Últtyq Bank uaqytsha satyp aluy mýmkin. Basty súraq – Qazaqstandaghy birjanyng ýlesin Mosbirja qanshagha satugha dayyn? Býgin KASE aksiyalarynyng kotirovkasy 88 999 tenge bolyp túrghanyn eskersek, olardyng qolyndaghy 140 myng jәy aksiya 12,45 milliard tengege ten.

Mosbirjanyng sanksiyagha úshyraghanyn algha tartyp, basqa investorlar ýshin onyng osy ýlesine saudalasyp, arzangha satyp alugha mýmkindik bar.

Tengege ne bolady?

Negizi, rubli endi qúlay ma, jata ma, tengening onda esh sharuasy joq. Qazir últtyq valutamyz tek qana múnay baghasy men syrtqy tólem balansyna qarap otyr. Múnaydyng barreline 80 dollar diapazonynan týspey jýrgendigin, jәne bolashaqta da týspeytinin eskersek, bizge bastysy importty tym kóbeytip almau kerek. Sol kezde tenge de túraqty bolady.

Kózi qaraqty oqyrmannyng yuani jaqqa da nazar sala bastaghany dúrys shyghar. Resey keshe ony ózining negizgi importtyq valutasy dep jariyalady. Osymen dollar men evro Reseyden resmy ketti dep aitugha bolady. Qazir Reseyde bar barlyq sheteldik valutanyng 54 payyzy yuani. Bolashaqta Qytay Resey ýshin Soltýstik Koreyadaghyday әlemdik naryqqa shyghar jalghyz esik retinde ornyghuy da ghajap emes.

Sondyqtan bizding aimaqta yuani pozisiyasy kýsheye bastaytyn bolady. Jәne Qytaydyng AQSh-ty tóley alu pariyteti boyynsha eseptelgen ekonomika reytinginde basyp ozghanyn eskersek, әlemde qazir AQSh emes, Qytay №1 ekonomika dep sanalady. Al nominaldy ishki jalpy ónim boyynsha Qytay 2030 jyldary AQSh-ty basyp ozatyny aidan anyq.

Búl rette, yuani dәl qazir 100% rezervti valuta. Al 10-15 jyldan keyin, eger Beyjing bar yntasymen birisse, onda әlemdegi basty valutagha ainalyp, dollardy yghystyratynyn joqqa shygharugha bolmaydy. BRIKS pen OSEAN yuanidi negizgi valuta dep qabyldasa bolghany.

Krylov mysalyndaghyday rubli sorgha qúlap, batyp bara jatyr. Al tenge jerde jorghalap jýr. Yuani bolsa qanat qaghyp úshyp barady.

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