Ázirge AQSh-tyng soghysty ayaqtaugha qatysty beybit jospary boyynsha týrli aqparat jariyalanyp jatyr. Batystyng BAQ-tary birinen keyin biri «insayderlik derek» degen negizde aqparattardy jariyalauda. 28 tarmaqtan túratyn jospardy kórdik. Ony ukraiyn/reseylik arnalar jariyalady.

Ukraina búl jospardy qabyl ala ma? Zelenskiy jospar boyynsha AQSh-pen júmys isteuge dayyn ekenin aitty. Yaghny birden qatang reaksiya tanytqan joq. Resey tarapy búl jospar jayly resmy negizde әli eshtene aitpady. Ukraina búl jospargha óz úsynystaryn engize otyryp, qabyl aluy tiyis dep sanaymyn (jeke pikir ghoy). Nege olay oilaytynymdy qysqasha jaza keteyin.

Birinshiden, maydan dalasy. Qazir maydan dalasynda jaghday Ukraina paydasyna sheshilip jatqan joq. Pokrovsk-Mirnograd, Kupyansk, Zaporoj, Harikov baghyttarynda Reseyding algha jyljuy bar. Tasbaqa jyldamdyghymen qozghaluda, biraq algha jylju bar. Reseyding shyghyny búl baghytta ukrain shyghynynan eselep kóp ekeni de ras. Ukraina da ýlken shyghyngha úshyrauda. Mәskeuding adamy resursy Ukrainadan birneshe ese kóp. Basty mәsele osy bolyp túr. Ukrainagha úrysty toqtatyp, әskery bólimshelerding әleuetin kýsheytip, jana bólimsheler jasaqtau kerek. Ol ýshin soghys toqtauy tiyis. Qazir maydan dalasyndaghy jaghdaydan bólek, shepten ketushiler (dezertiyr) sany artqan. Búnyng bәrin retteu ýshin, әlbette úrys toqtauy tiyis.

Ekinshiden, Ukraina әskerining sany 600 myng bolyp shektelui tiyis degen úsynys aitylypty. Key derekte 350-400 myng degendi aituda. Biraq búl kritikalyq shekteu emes. Nege? Sebebi әngime beybit kýndegi әsker jayly aitylyp otyr. Al Ukrainada soghysqa deyin (2022-ning aqpanyna deyin) 250 myng әsker boldy. Demek, qazirgi talap boyynsha Ukrainanyng әskeri shektelgen kýnning ózinde, 2022-ge deyingi kórsetkishpen salystyrghanda 2-2,5 ese kóp bolady degen sóz. Búny Reseyding key últshyldary bayqap qoyyp, baj ete qaldy. Biraq olargha asa mәn berilmegen siyaqty. Al soghys bolsa, әlbette әr memleket qansha әsker shygharatynyn ózi biledi ghoy. Qamtamasyz etu mýmkindigi men mobilizasiyalyq qabiletine say әsker jasaqtaydy da. Beybit kýnde 600 myng әskerdi qamtamasyz etu de ýlken shyghyn. Sol ýshin tipti Kiyev onyng sanyn úrys toqtasa 300 myng etui yqtimal.

Ýshinshiden, territoriya mәselesi. Búl endi Ukraina ýshin jandy taqyryp. Resey búl soghysta ne útty? Jenis retinde neni úsyna alady? Jaulap alghan aumaqtaryn. 2022-ge deyin Resey Donesk pen Lugansktyng biraz bóligin, Qyrymdy alghan edi. Al 4 jyldyq soghysta Resey Zaporoj ben Hersonnyng jartysyn, Donesk, Lugansktyng taghy biraz bóligin aldy. Biraq qanday qún tóledi? Millionnan astam әsker qyryldy (jaraly/qaza tapqan). Ekonomikalyq qún bólek әngime. Reseyding últshyldary qazirgi kelisimge kónbeytinin aituda. Sebebi Ukraina Donesk oblysynyng qalghan bóligin Reseyge berui tiyis deydi, qazir Ukraina oblystyng 16-18 payyzyn baqylauda ústauda. Al Resey Ukrainagha Harikov, Sum jәne Dnepropetrovsk oblystarynyng baqylaudaghy aimaqtaryn qaytarady (degen aqparat bar). Zaporoj ben Herson oblystarynda soghys maydan shebi boyynsha toqtaydy (qazirgi úsynys boyynsha). Biraq Reseyding konstitusiyasy boyynsha Mәskeu Donbassty jәne Zaporoj ben Hersondy tolyq óz aumaghy etip jariyalaghan. Álbette, búl zansyz. Biraq sóitip jariyalady ghoy. Endi reseylik últshyldar «Konstitusiya boyynsha bizding jerimiz sanalatyn aimaqtardy Ukraina qolynda qaldyramyz ba» deui mýmkin. Solay deydi de. Sonda Reseyding búl soghystan iyemdengeni Qyrymgha baratyn qúrlyq joly bolmaq.

Tórtinshiden, Resey Donbassty alu ýshin soghys ashty deu qatelik. Mәskeuding jospary tym ýlken edi. Ol shyn mәninde Odessany ala otyryp, Moldovanyng Pridnestrovie aimaghyna deyin jerdi iyemdenudi oilady. Osylaysha qúrlyq jolyn salyp, Moldovagha deyin yqpal aimaghyn arttyrudy qalady. Ukrainany Qara tenizge shyghatyn jolynan aiyrudy kózdedi. Al eng bastysy, Ukrainada biylikti auystyryp, reseyshil biylikti qoyyp, ne Ukrainany psevdoreferendum arqyly tolyq qosudy, ne Belarusi ispettes «odaqtas el» jobasyna kirgizudi qalady. Al Reseyding key propagandisteri Kiyevte jenis sheruin ótkizudi qalaytynyn aitty. Negizgi maqsat Ukrainany tolyq SUVERENIYTETten aiyru bolatyn. Maksimum jospar osynday edi.

Besinshiden, Ukrainagha beriletin qauipsizdik kepildigi. Kiyevting NATO-gha qosylmaytyny aityluda. Ol beseneden belgili dýniye. Ony soghys bastalghan kýni-aq jazghanbyz. Ony Ukraina ózi de jaqsy týsinedi. NATO-gha qosylu ýshin jer dauy bolmauy tiyis. Shart sonday. Al Ukrainada jer dauy bar. Ol ne Resey basyp alghan aimaqty kýshpen qaytarady, ne ol aimaqtardan zandy týrde bas tartady. Búnyng ekeuin de Ukraina qazirgi tanda jasay almaydy. Demek, NATO-gha kiruge jol jabyq. Tipti, kirem degen kýnning ózinde NATO-daghy 32 elding bәri ony maqúldauy qajet. Qazir ony NATO-gha qosqysy kelmeytin elder bar. Ary ketpey bir Vengriyany jaza salayyn. Sol ýshin Ukrainagha basqa qauipsizdik kepildigi beriletini aityluda. Ol NATO-nyng 5-shi jarghysyna úqsas bolady deydi. Bolashaqta Resey Ukrainagha qayta shabuyl jasasa, onda AQSh pen onyng odaqtastary Reseyge qarsy jauap beredi, onyng ishinde әskery әreket de qarastyrylady. Qauipsizdik kepildigi 10 jylgha beriledi. Osynday úsynys aitylyp jatyr. Biraq shynymdy aitsam, men múnday kepildikterge asa senim artpaymyn. Kez kelgen memleket ýshin basty kepildik – ózining әskeri!

Búdan basqa da tarmaqtar bar. Mysaly Resey basyp alghan aimaqty de-fakto moyyndau degen. Ol da týsinikti. Mәsele de-yre moyyndamaugha tireledi. Ukraina ony de-ire moyyndamaydy. EO da moyyndauy ekitalay. De-yre moyyndau «Pandora jәshigin» ashady jәne órkeniyetti әlemdegi asa qauipti presedent bolmaq.

Odan bólek Zaporoj AES-in qoldanu, Ukrainany qalpyna keltiruge qyruar qarjy bólu, investisiya qúi jәne basqa әngimeler bar. Bastysy EO-gha Ukrainany qabyldaudy jyldamdatu mәselesi talqy bolady.

Resey jenis retinde Qyrymgha baratyn qúrlyq joly men Donbassty auditoriyasyna úsynady. Al Ukraina jenis retinde tәuelsizdigin saqtap qalu men ekinshi armiyagha 4 jyl tótep berip, ýlken shyghyn jasaghanyn úsynady. Álbette, eger kelisimge kelse. Búl kelisim bolmay qaluy da mýmkin. Aldaghy aptalarda biraz aqparat estiymiz.

Ashat Qasenghaliy

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