«Orta dәliz» logistika tamyry bola ala ma?

Kezinde – EAEO qúru barysynda – «Odaqtyng paydasy» turaly qanday madaq sózder aitylmady deseshi ‑ so kezde Qytay «Bir jol – bir beldeu» jobasyn úsyndy. Ol boyynsha «beldeu boyynda jatqan elder tranzittik mýmkindikteri arqasynda baylyqqa batyp qalatyn» bolghan‑dy: Qazaqstan‑Resey‑Belarus avtotransport joly, temir joldar, Qytay‑Qazaqstan‑Orta Aziya jolynyng ontýstik baghyty jәne t.t. Búl maqtanysh EAEO qúryluyn tezdetti. Nәtiyjesinde kóptegen asyghys sheshimder qabyldanyp, endi onyng zardabyn Qytay da, Qazaqstan da, Ortalyq Aziya da molynan tartuda.

Odaq Shartynda jiberilgen qatelikterding zardaby kóp úzamay‑aq    kórindi: Shart negizinen tek Reseyding mýddesine say ekendigin ózgeler seze bastady. Sonynda birneshe búrynghy odaqtyq respublikalar (Ózbekstan, Ukraina) búl odaqqa kiruden bas tartty. Nәtiyjesinde Resey men Ukraina arasy shiyelenisti jәne Ukraina territoriyalaryn Reseyding anneksiyalau qimyly bastaldy: RF Qyrymdy «qaytardy», DNR men LNR siyaqty kvazy respublikalardy qúrdy, sonynda ózine qosyp aldy. Osy shiyelenis 2022 j. 24‑aqpanda RF әskerining Ukrainagha basa‑kóktep kiruimen jalghasty. Sóitip, «Bir jol –bir beldeu» jobasynyng basty subektisi sanalatyn Resey әlemdik sanksiyalar qúshaghyna endi...

Orta dәlizge oiysu

Reseyding qarjy jýiesine qarsy salynghan sanksiyalardyng qatandatyluy, soghan baylanysty Qytay men Europalyq odaq arasyndaghy «Orta dәlizdi» iske asyrudyng jedeldeui ‑ Ortalyq Aziya elderi ýshin jana shyndyqty qalyptastyryp otyr.  Óitkeni,  EuroOdaq Qytaydyng eng iri sauda‑sattyq seriktesi bolyp otyrghandyqtan, eki aradaghy tranzittik tabystan ajyrau qay elding bolmasyn ekonomikasyna tiyimsiz. Sóitip, songhy ondaghan jylda alghash ret tranzit mәselesi tek geografiya men infraqúrylym shenberinen shyghyp, tikeley qarjy jýielerine, retteushilerge, sifrlyq platformalargha jәne komplaens (biznestegi ýilesimdilik) instituttaryna degen senimge tireldi.

RF-ting aqshany jylystatu men terrorizmdi qarjylandyru qaupi joghary yurisdiksiyalar tizimine engizilui ‑ europalyq bankterding  «reseylik iz» bar degen kez kelgen operasiyagha kózqarasyn týbegeyli ózgertti. Búnyng tek tikeley tranzaksiyalargha ghana emes, deldaldargha, tranzittik memleketterge jәne olardyng «ishki naryqtaryna» da qatysy bar ekeni anyqtaldy.

Eske salayyq, 28 qantar kýni Qarjylyq monitoring agenttiginde ótken alqa otyrysynda Preziydent Toqaev agenttik tóraghasy Janat Elimanovtyng bayandamasyna sýiene otyryp, 2025 jyly kórshi elderding birinen qazaqstandyq bankting kómegimen 7 trln tengeden (14 mlrd AQSh dollary shamasynda) astam qarjynyng ózge memleketterge shygharylghanyn aitqan bolatyn. Osyghan baylanysty Memleket basshysy Qarjylyq monitoring agenttigine, Qarjy naryghyn retteu jәne damytu agenttigine jәne Qazaqstan Últtyq bankine naqty tapsyrmalar jýktegen. Osy jaghdayda qarjylyq tranzitting kópmilliardtyq kólemi jýielik tәuekelderding aiqyn indikatory retinde kórinedi.

Endeshe, aliternativti baghyttar izdeu kerek pe?

IYә, izdeu kerek, әri, búl kezek kýttirmeytin mәselege ainaluda. «Orta dәliz» әskery qaqtyghys aimaqtary arqyly ótetin baghyttargha jәne shamadan tys jýktelgen teniz joldaryna balama retinde oilastyrylghan.  Alayda qatysushy elderding qarjylyq jәne sifrlyq infraqúrylymy syrtqy yqpalgha (mysaly, Reseyge) osal kýiinde qalsa, búl joba túraqty bola almaydy. EO investorlary men retteushileri ýshin jýkting jetkizilu jyldamdyghy ghana emes, esep aiyrysulardyng ashyqtyghy, kapitaldyng shyghu tegi jәne negizgi jýielerding tәuelsizdigi de asa manyzdy.

Qazaqstan Orta dәlizding qarjylyq әri logistikalyq torabyn atqarugha eng basty ýmitker retinde obektivti týrde qarastyryldy.

Ekonomikalyq auqym, damyghan bank jýiesi jәne tranzittik ornalasu Qazaqstangha eleuli artyqshylyq berdi. Alayda songhy jyldary birqatar «tәueldilikter» (әriyne, eng aldymen, Reseyge) jinaqtalyp, olar birtindep basqarylatyn tәuekelderden strategiyalyq shekteulerge ainala bastady.

Mәsele tek energetika men múnay tranziytinde ghana emes, múnda QR әli de reseylik marshruttar men janar-jagharmay jetkizilimderine tәueldi. Sifrlyq qúramdas bólik te manyzdy ról atqarady. Qazaqstannyng internet-trafiygining edәuir bóligi Resey aumaghy arqyly ótedi, búl ony sýzgileuge, bayaulatugha jәne tehnikalyq baqylaugha osal etedi. Is jýzinde el әli kýnge deyin soltýstik kórshini ainalyp ótetin jahandyq jelilerge balama tolyqqandy shyghu jolyna ie emes, al geosayasy túraqsyzdyq jaghdayynda búl últtyq qauipsizdik faktory bolyp otyr.

Qarjy salasy búghan taghy bir kýrdeli súraq qosady.

Tәrtip ornatu jәne kólenkeli ekonomikamen kýres úrandarymen Qazaqstanda birqatar salalarda, sonyng ishinde qúmar oiyndar men bәs tigu naryghynda, ortalyqtandyrylghan esepke alu tetikteri engizildi. Atap aitqanda, arhiytekturasy sarapshylar men deputattardyng aituynsha, reseylik ortalyqtandyrylghan esep jýiesi — SUPIS modelin kóp jaghynan qaytalaytyn Birynghay esepke alu jýiesi (BEJ) turaly sóz bolyp otyr.

Reseydegi SUPIS jýiesi 2016 jyldan beri bukmekerlik naryqtyng qarjy aghyndaryn shoghyrlandyryp keledi, al 2021 jyldan keyin Umar Kremlyovpen baylanysty qúrylymdardyng baqylauyna ótti. Búl ekojýiening qarjylyq seriktesi — halyqaralyq qatang sanksiyalar salynghan Reseyding iri bankterining biri VTB.

Mәjilis deputaty Baqytjan Bazarbek dәl osy tәuekelge nazar audaryp, BEJ-di jay ghana retteushi qúral emes, reseylik izi bar jekemenshik kompaniyanyng aqsha men derekter aghyndaryn baqylaugha alu yqtimal arnasy dep atady. 

Qazaqstanda «ekinshi sanksiyalar qaupi» turaly jariya eskertulerge qaramastan, búl jýie engizildi. Sonyng saldarynan tәuekelder tek naryq operatorlaryna ghana emes, esep aiyrysular ótetin bankterge de jýkteldi. Europalyq sanksiyalyq rejimning qatandauy jaghdayynda múnday baylanystardyng barlyghy avtomatty týrde halyqaralyq retteushilerding nazaryn audarady.

Súr import mәselesi de erekshe nazar audarudy talap etedi. Syrtqy sauda statistikasy Qazaqstan arqyly Reseyge eksporttyq shekteulerge jatatyn tauarlardyng — elektronika, komponentter, qosarly maqsattaghy jabdyqtardyng — jetkizilui jýzdegen payyzgha kýrt artqanyn kórsetedi. Formaldy týrde búl aghyndar qazaqstandyq eksport nemese tranzit retinde rәsimdelgenimen, is jýzinde eldi sanksiyalardy ainalyp ótuding buferine ainaldyrady. Búl qarjy jýiesine qysymdy kýsheytip qana qoymay, ashyqtyq negizgi talap bolyp tabylatyn jana logistikalyq bastamalargha QR-dyng qatysuyn da qauipke tigedi.

Qyrghyzstannyng tәjiriybesi 

Respublika da súr import, kedendik statistikadaghy alshaqtyqtar, reseylik qarjylyq jәne sifrlyq sheshimderdi engizu әreketteri siyaqty úqsas syn-qaterlerge tap boldy. Alayda birqatar jaghdayda anaghúrlym saq әri institusionaldyq túrghydan ólshengen sheshimder qabyldandy. Sanksiyagha úshyraghan banktermen baylanysty jekelegen tetikterdi integrasiyalaudan bas tartu, sonday-aq telekommunikasiyalyq operatordy últtyq menshikke alu aqparattyq jәne qarjylyq qauipsizdik mýddesinen tuyndaghan qadamdar boldy.

Qyrghyzstannyng jekelegen bankterine salynghan sanksiyalardyng ózi reformalardy iske qosqan stress-test rólin atqardy. Bank jýiesi EO, Úlybritaniya jәne AQSh talaptaryna say AML/CFT rәsimderin jedel engize bastady, týpkilikti benefisiarlardy taldau men transshekaralyq tólemderdi baqylau kýsheytildi. Qysqa merzimde búl auyr soqqy bolghanymen, dәl osynday qadamdar senim qalyptastyrady.

Jalpy Ortalyq Aziya ýshin jana shyndyq qalyptasyp keledi.

Orta dәliz — búl tek kólik baghyty ghana emes, qarjylyq jәne sifrlyq jetilgendikke jasalatyn emtihan. Sanksiyagha úshyraghan qúrylymdarmen shatysqan shemalardy «zandastyrudy» jalghastyrghan elder jana ekonomikalyq tәrtipting shetinde qalu qaupine úshyraydy.

Býgin  súr tranzitten týsetin qysqamerzimdi payda men úzaqmerzimdi túraqtylyq arasyndaghy tandau sheshushi mәnge iye.

Aymaqtyng bolashaq qúrlyqtyq logistika arhiytekturasyndaghy róli de dәl osy tandaugha baylanysty bolmaq.

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