Aziya damu banki (ADB) Tәjikstan ýkimetine úzaq merzimdi perspektivada zeynetaqy reformasyn jýrgizip, zeynetke shyghu jasyn úlghaytudy úsyndy. Sarapshylar eki núsqany qarastyrudy úsynyp otyr:

Áyelderding zeynet jasyn qazirgi 58-den 63 jasqa deyin kóteru.

Erler men әielder ýshin birdey 65 jas dengeyindegi birynghay mejeni engizu (qazirgi tanda Tәjikstanda erler – 63, әielder – 58 jasta zeynetke shyghady).

Búl úsynys Ortalyq Aziya ónirindegi әleumettik-demografiyalyq ózgeristerding terendep bara jatqanyn aiqyn kórsetedi. Búl reformanyng syrtqy sebepteri qanday jәne onyng Qazaqstangha qanday tikeley әri janama әseri boluy mýmkin?

ADB úsynysynyng astarynda ne jatyr?

Tәjikstanda zeynet jasyn kóteru turaly mәselening kýn tәrtibine shyghuyna birneshe jýieli faktorlar әser etip otyr:

Ómir sýru úzaqtyghynyng artuy: ADB bayandamasy boyynsha, Tәjikstanda ortasha ómir sýru úzaqtyghy 2010 jylghy 68,4 jastan 2024 jyly 76,6 jasqa deyin ósken. Elding últtyq damu strategiyasy búl kórsetkishti 2030 jylgha qaray 80 jasqa jetkizudi kózdeydi.

Budjetke týsetin orasan salmaq: 2026 jyldyng 1 sәuirindegi mәlimet boyynsha, Tәjikstanda 838,9 myng zeynetker tirkelgen. Tek biylghy birinshi toqsannyng ózinde zeynetaqy men jәrdemaqylargha 1,21 mlrd somonidan astam qarjy júmsalghan.

Kólenkeli ekonomika jәne jarna tóleushilerding azdyghy: Eng basty mәsele — enbekke qabiletti halyqtyng tek ýshten bir bóligi (33%) ghana mindetti zeynetaqy jýiesimen qamtylghan. Azamattardyng basym bóligi beyresmy sektorda júmys isteydi nemese enbek migrasiyasynda jýr.

Búl jaghday Qazaqstangha qalay әser etedi?

Tәjikstandaghy zeynetaqy reformalary men әleumettik-ekonomikalyq ózgerister Qazaqstangha birneshe baghyt boyynsha әser etedi:

Enbek migrasiyasynyng aghyny artady

Tәjikstanda zeynet jasynyng úlghangy jәne zeynetaqy jýiesining qatandauy enbekke qabiletti jastar men orta jastaghy azamattardyng elde qalu motivasiyasyn tómendetedi.

Azamattar qartayghanda memlekettik әleumettik qamsyzdandyrugha senim artpaytyndyqtan, tabysy jogharyraq kórshiles elderge kóbirek aghylady.

Qazaqstan ýshin әseri: Qazaqstannyng qúrylys, auyl sharuashylyghy, ken óndirisi men qyzmet kórsetu salalaryna Tәjikstannan keletin zandy jәne zansyz enbek migranttarynyng aghyny kóbeyedi. Búl Qazaqstandaghy arzan jumys kýshine bolghan súranysty japqanymen, kóshi-qondy baqylau men legalizasiyalau jýktemesin arttyrady.

Áleumettik audarymdar men transshekaralyq mәseleler

Eger Tәjikstan azamattary Qazaqstanda úzaq merzim boyy júmys istep, múnda salyq nemese Zeynetaqy qoryna (BJZQ) audarym jasasa, bolashaqta eki el arasyndaghy zeynetaqylyq jinaqtardy tanu jәne tóleu kelisimsharttaryn qayta qarau qajettiligi tuyndaydy. Múnday migranttardyng zeynetke shyghu jasynyng aiyrmashylyghy zannamalyq kazustargha әkelui mýmkin.

Aymaqtyq trend: Qazaqstan ýshin sabaq

Ortalyq Aziya elderining ishinde Qazaqstan da demografiyalyq qartai men zeynetaqy jýiesining ornyqtylyghy mәselesine tap bolyp otyr:

• Tәjikstandaghy jaghday — býkil ónirdegi beyresmy júmyspen qamtu dengeyining әleumettik jýiege beretin zardabynyng aiqyn mysaly.
• Qazaqstan da BJZQ jýiesin reformalauda, beyresmy sektordy azaytuda jәne әielderding zeynet jasyn toqtata túru siyaqty sheshimderdi qabyldauda úqsas demografiyalyq qysymdy bastan keshirip jatyr. Tәjikstannyng búl qadamy Qazaqstan ýshin de bolashaqta zeynetaqy jýiesin qayta qaraugha týrtki bolatyn aimaqtyq signal bolyp tabylady.

Tәjikstan ýkimeti songhy ret 2026 jyldyng qyrkýieginde zeynetaqyny 15%-gha indekstegenimen jәne ADB-dan jýieni sifrlandyrugha 20,5 mln dollar grant alghanymen, búl uaqytsha sharalar ghana.

Zeynet jasyn 65 jasqa deyin kóteru — budjet defisiytin tejeuding jalghyz amaly. Al búl sheshimning aimaqtyq saldary retinde Qazaqstan jaqyn jyldary Tәjikstannan keletin enbek migranttarynyng jana tolqynyn qabyldaugha jәne kóshi-qon sayasatyn soghan say beyimdeuge mәjbýr bolady.

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