Beysenbi, 28 Nauryz 2024
Qogham 10757 0 pikir 30 Sәuir, 2014 saghat 17:40

QYTAY QYRYM SSENARIYIN QAYTALAY MA?

Curette: AQSh Qorghanys ministri Chak Heygl (ong jaqtan ekinshi) jәn QHR Qorghanys ministri general Chang Vanisuani (ortada).

 

Sәuirding 21-28 kýnderi aralyghynda AQSh Preziydenti Barak Obama Japoniya, Fillippin sekildi Shyghys Aziyadaghy biraz elderge resmy saparmen baryp qaytty. Reseyding Qyrymdy basyp aluy Qytaydyng kórshilerining týn úiqysyn tórt bóldi. Sebebi, Qytay songhy jyldary keybir eldermen shekaradaghy araldargha talasyp jýr. Tómendegi maqala Japoniya men AQSh sarapshylarynyng Qytaydyng әskery agressiyasy oyanuy mýmkin be degen saual tónireginde aitqan tújyrymdary jayynda.

 

Ótken aida Resey Qyrymdy bólip әketip, Ukrainanyng qalghan jerlerinde odan әri astyrtyn әreketterin jalghastyryp jatyr. Búl jaghday qarap, Qytay territoriyalyq talas aimaqtarynda Mәskeuding taktikasyn qoldanuy mýmkin degen AQSh odaqtastarynyng kýdigi kýsheye bastady.

Amerika Reseydi tizgindeude әskery kýsh qoldanugha qúlyqsyzdyq tanytqannan keyin, AQSh-tyng resmy kelisimdi odaqtastary Japoniya, Ontýstik Koreya, Filippin siyaqty elder eger Qytay Mәskeuding agressiyasyn janghyrtatyn bolsa, AQSh taghy da osy әuenin qaytalaydy ma dep mazalary qashuda.

«Búl elderding abyrjularyna týsinistikpen qaraugha bolady. Sebebi, Qytay kórshilerimen bolghan Ontýstik jәne Shyghys Qytay tenizderindegi territoriyalyq daularynda óktemdikpen qatqyl ýnder qatuda», - deydi sarapshylar.

2012 jyly negizinde Filippinnyng zandy basqaruynda bolghan Ontýstik tenizdegi dauly Skarboro qayranyn Qytay iyemdenip alghanda Manilamen ortaq qorghanystyq kelisimi bar bola túra, AQSh búl agressiyagha da qolyn bir-aq sermegen edi.

Bir jyldan son, Qytay Japonmen aradaghy dauly araldarda arnauly әue qorghanysy zonasyn jariyalaghanda AQSh B-52 bombylaushy úshaghyn jibergenimen, keyinnen Amerikandyq kommersiyalyq әuekompaniyalary Beyjiynning shúghyl әreketteri bayqalghan kezde ghana qoldau kórsetedi dep habarlady.

Amerikanyng búl «tәsilin» keybir sarapshylar Qytaymen jaqyndasu, yaghni, Aziyadaghy eng manyzdy odaqtasy Japoniyanyng ornyn Qytaymen auystyru dep týsindiredi.

Al, Qytay jaghy Dyaoydao, Japondar Senkaku dep ataghan Shyghys tenizdegi araldargha talasta Qytaydyng әskery kýsh qoldanu mýmkindigining kýsheyip bara jatqandyghy aiqyn bayqaldy. Sol kezde Qytay Qorghanys ministri General Chang Vanisuani: «Territoriya dauynda eshqashan kelisimge kelmeymiz»,- dep qatang eskertken. General Channyng óz sózi boyynsha aitqanda, búl jaghday jóninde Qytay taraby jaghynan: «Eshqanday bitimgershilik, kenesu, kelisim degen bolmaydy».

Qytay Qorghanys ministri General Chang Vanisuani jogharydaghy sózine qosa, «Qytay әskery kýshi kez kelgen uaqytta jedel jinala alady, kez-kelgen soghysqa saqaday saylanghan jәne jenedi»,- dep qadap aitqan edi.

«Beyjiynning búl minezi – asqynyp kele jatqan Qytay óktemdigining bir ghana mysaly»,- deydi Vashingtondyq American Enterprise Institute - AEI-tyng Aziya aimaghy jónindegi mamany Maykl Ausliyn.

Osydan song AQSh-pen odaqtas, dostastyq pen qauipsizdik kelisimine qol qoyghan elder qobaljuyn jasyra almady. Sonymen, búl turaly biraz mamandar týrli pikirleri men syn-saraptaryn bildire bastady. Mәskeuding Qyrymdy menshikteuine ekonomikalyq sanksiyadan ózge eshtene istey almauy jәne búlghaqtaghan AQSh sayasatynyng Qytaymen keybir sәtterde ymyragha beyimdigi AQSh-tyng resmy kelisimdi odaqtastaryn degbirsizdendirdi.

Osynday sәtte, búl jaghdaylardy mamandar basqa qyrynan, ózge ústanymdarmen týsindirip jatty.

«Aqsh pen Qyrym arasynda bir-birine «baylanarday», Filippiyn, Japoniya jәne Ontýstik Koreyadaghy siyaqty aradaghy qauipsizdik kelisimderi joq», - dey kele, Aq ýiding búrynghy Aziya jónindegi kenesshisi Mayk Griyn, - deytúrghanmen, múnday syn saghattar Amerikanyng qauipsizdik uәdelerining senimdiligine belgili dәrejede yqpalyn tiygizui mýmkin, әriyne, Barak Obama ýkimeti senmige selkeu týsuin qalamaydy, sondyqtan da senimin qayta tikteui kerek».

21 sәuirden bastalghan Barak Obamanyng Japoniya, Ontýstik Koreya, Malayziya jәne Filippinge segiz kýndik sapary qarsanynda Mayk Grin bylay degen edi: «Meninshe, Obama ýkimeti ghalamnyng ózge shetindegi jaghdayattardyng Aziyanyng qauipsizdik dinamikasyna da ýlken әseri baryn anghara bastady. Al búl elderding barlyghy Ontýstik jәne Shyghys Qytay tenizi aimaqtarynda Qytaymen territoriyalyq dauy bar memleketter. Sondyqtan da, Ukraina basyna ýiirilgen qara búlt pen Qytaydyng territoriyalyq talaptaryn oryndauda kýshke basu yqtimaldyghynan alandaghan AQSh odaqtastarynyng ýreyi saldarynan tuyndaghan senimsizdikti joy ýshin preziydent Barak Obamanyng osy joly Aziyalyq odaqtastaryna attanuy asa bir auyr sapar eseptelip otyr. 

Sonymen qatar, Reseyding Ukrainadaghy әreketterinen song boluy mýmkin dep sanalghan Qytaydyng Aziyadaghy әskery qimyldary jónindegi saualdar osy jolghy Barak Obama saparynyng mәnin tipti de terendete týsti».

Al, Aq ýilikter Obamanyng issapary jóninde ótken júmada ótkizgen brifingte, AQSh preziydentining últtyq qauipsizdik jónindegi kenesshi Siuzan Raysqa (surette) qoyylghan alghashyq saual Ukraina daghdarysy jóninde jәne daghdarystyng Aziya elderi liyderlerining talastaghy territoriyalar dauyndaghy ústanymdaryna qanshalyqty әser beretindigi sonymen qatar, Beyjing tarabynan keletin ýreyding qalay damityndyghy haqynda bolghan.

Rays óz jauabynda: «Sapar barysyndaghy әrbir ayaldaularda biz bәrin talqylaytyn bolamyz», - dep Vashingtonnyng odaqtastarymen tipti de jaqyndasatyndyghyn menzegen.

Al mәselege taghy bir qyrynan kóz jýgirtken sarapshylar Putinning qara dýrsin agressiyasyn baqylauda Obamanyng qoldanghan strategiyasyn dúrys qadam dep esepteytindikterin aitady. Sebebi, búl Qytaydyng territoriyalyq daularynda kýsh qoldanu yqtimaldyghyn bәsendetedi deydi.

Barak Obama Reseyding Qyrym týbegin kýshpen qosyp aluyna sanksiyalar jariyalaghanyn jәne eger Mәskeu taghy da Ukraina haqynda halyqaralyq týitkilderdi órshiter bolsa nemese shyghys Ukrainagha әskery kýsh qoldanar bolsa, onda Vashington Mәskeuge tipti de auyr ekonomikalyq sanksiyalar jariyalaytyndyghyn esepke alghan Vashingtondyq Brukings institutynyng (Brookings Institution) sheteldik sayasatty zertteu bólimining diyrektory Maykl O'Henlon (Michael O'Hanlon) bylay  deydi: «Meninshe, Obamanyng Ukraina mәselesi jónindegi strategiyasynyng Shyghys Aziyadaghy territoriyalyq daugha ong әseri bolady. Shyghys jәne Ontýstik Qytay tenizderindegi talasty territoriya mәselesi tónireginde AQSh odaqtastarynyng da, Qytaydyng da mýddelerining tengerimimen sheshuge talpynu kerek. Eger Qytay tarapynan әldeqanday kýtpegen әreketter bolyp jatsa, әskery kýshpen emes, ekonomikalyq sanksiyalarmen baqylaugha kýsh salu kerek... Mәseleni sheshuding kóp núsqalary bar kezde Qytaygha soghys ashu qajet dep eseptemeymin. Mening payymdauymsha, eng ýilesimdisi, mәseleni barlyq mýddelerding tengerimimen sheshu qajet. Shyndyghynda, biz taghy da sol sanksiyalardy qoldanghanymyz dúrys. Biraq búl әriyne, barlyq Japondyq, Filippindik dostarymyzdy quanta qoymauy mýmkin. Biz búl daghdarystargha, qajet bolsyn nemese bolmasyn, әskery kýshpen jauap berer bolsaq, әriyne, nәtiyjesi qanshalyqty qaterli bolaryn shamalay alamyz. Tipti zamanaqyr jasap aluymyz da mýmkin», - deydi Maykl O'Henlon.

Al taghy biraz mamandar Qytay Reseyding Ukrain eline shapqynshylyghynan shabyt alady degenge kýmәnmen qaraytyndyqtaryn algha tartady.   

SIA-ding búrynghy Qytay boyynsha sarapshysy Kristofer Djonoson (Christopher Johnson) Qytaylyq diplomatiyanyng Mәskeudikindey ashyq-әshkere agressiyagha qúrylmaghandyghyn eskerte kelip, bylay deydi: «Áriyne, du jour teoriyasy boyynsha, Qyrym jaghdayynan Qytay shabyt aluy kerek edi. Meninshe, búl týbegeyli qate tújyrym. Sebebi, búl Qytaylyq strategiyalyq oilau men Qytaylyq strategiyalyq dәstýrdi týsinbegendik. Qyrym epizodynyng Qytay-Resey qatynasyna әseri bolsyn, Qytaydyng Resey әrketterine ústanymy bolsyn, búl jaghdaylar karta oiynynyng bir týri ispetti,  osynday kezde Qytay-AQSh-Resey ýsh jaqty qatynastary, әriyne, ishkerley saraptaudy qajet etedi».

Qytaydyng әskery óktemdigi órship túrghanymen, biraz mamandar AQSh-tyng Japoniya men Filippin sekildi odaqtastary aitqanday Qytay onaylyqpen territoriyalardy paydasyna sheshe almaydy, tipti Tayvan mәselesinde de qarsylyqsyz sheshilui neghaybyl degen pikirlerdi ortagha salady.

«Resey Qyrymdy esh qarsylyqsyz bólektep aldy. Al, Qytay Tayvan mәselesin esh qarsylyqsyz paydasyna sheshe almaydy»,-deydi prizdent Bill  Klinton kezindegi AQSh memlekettik hatshysynyng orynbasary Strob Telbott (Strobe Talbott) júma kýni ózining tvitterdegi paraqshasynda.

Al, AEI-dyq maman Maykl Auslin bolsa, «Aziya aimaghynda Resey-Ukraina daghdarysy qaytalansyn-qaytalanbasyn, túraqsyzdyq jaylauda. Mәsele, Qytay býgin óz maqsatyn jýzege asyruda Putindik stilidegi taktikany qaytalau-qaytalamauynda emes, qayta, Beyjing ertengi kýni solay isteuge doyby tasyn tizip jatqan-jatpaghanynda»,-deydi óz týiininde.

Al búl taqyryp haqynda Japoniya búqaralyq aqparat qúraldary tipti dýrlikken. Japoniyada shyghatyn aptalyq sayasi-ekonomikalyq «Shukan Bunshun» jurnalynda Japon sayasy sarapshysy Iidzima Isaodyng «Qyrym mәselesi jәne Sinkaku araly» degen atty maqalasy jariyalanghan. Maqala avtory Iidzima Isao Japoniyanyng búrynghy premier-ministri IIni Ichiro Koidzumiyding kezinde bes jyl Memlekettik hatshy bolghan, Japoniyagha tanymal sayasy sarapshy.

Maqalada Resey men Ukraina arasynda tartysqa týsken Qyrym men Qytay-Japon arasynda talasta qalghan Sinkaku araldary mәselesin salystyryp, «Eger Qytay memleketi Reseyding tәsilin qoldanyp, bolashaqta Sinkaku aralyn basyp alsa, Japoniya oghan qalay jauap qaytaruy kerek»,-degen mәsele tónireginde sayasy saraptama jasaghan.

Avtor Qyrym daghdarysynyng halyqaradaghy salmaghy zor mәselege ainalghandyghyn, ýlken jetilikting (G7) Reseyding Qyrym isindegi әreketterine narazylyqtary men qarsylyqtaryn bildirip, ekonomikalyq sanksiyalar jariyalaghanyn aityp kelip, jaqynda Niyderlandy koroldiginde ótken ýlken jetilikting otyrysynda Japoniya premieri Sindzo Abening túshymdy pikirlerine joghary bagha bergen, 

Sindzo Abening Ukraina mәselesi turaly: «Japoniya kýshtilerding әlimjettilik istep, dýniyeni ózgeriske saluyna qarsy. Qyrym mәselesi, aqiqatynda, býkil halyqaranyn, tipti, Aziya elderining jaghdayyna da әser etetin ýlken mәsele»,-degen sózi jinalysqa qatysqan eldering qoldauyna ie bolghanyna mәn bergen.

Sayasy sarapshy Iidzima Isaodyng oiynsha, Japon premieri Sindzo Abening búl sózderi Reseyge qaratylyp aitylghanymen, aqiqatynda, Qytay memleketining Sinkaku araldary jónindegi әlimjettiligine qarata aitqan sózi.

Sonday-aq, avtor maqalasynda Ukraina men Resey arasynda tuylghan Qyrym mәselesin keybir Japon azamattarynyng Japoniyamen eshqanday qatysy joq dep eseptep jýrgendigine qynjylatyndyghyn aityp, shyn mәninde, búl mәselening sayasy jәne ekonomikalyq jaqtardan Japoniyamen tyghyz baylanysy bar ekendigin ortagha qoyghan.

Resey iyelenip alghan Japoniyanyng teristiktegi tórt aralynyng mәselesin eske salghan avtor, 1885 jyly Japoniya-Resey arasynda bolghan kelisimderde Iturup, Urup siyaqty tórt aral Japoniyagha tәn dep anyq belgilengendigin jәne 1945 jylghy AQSh, Britaniya jәne Kenes odaghy arasynda ótkizilgen Yaltadaghy qúpiya kelisimde Kurilo, Kishima siyaqty tórt araldyng Kenes odaghynyng qosyp jiberilgendigin, múndaghy Japoniya araldarynyng Kenes odaghyna berilui qazirgi Qyrym týbegin basyp alugha úqsas jaghday ekendigin aita kelip: «Eger Resey territoriyasyndaghy Japon araldary mәselesinde Japoniya premieri Sindzo Abe Putinnan sol tórt araldy qaytryp berudi talap etse, kýrdeli jaghday tuyndaytyny anyq. Biraq, 1855 jyly kelisimdi negiz etip, dialogqa alyp barar bolsa, onda anaghúrlym ónimdi bolary sózsiz»,-degen pikir aitqan.

«Qyrym daghdarysy siyaqty jaghday Japoniyada boluy mýmkin emes dep kim aita alady,-dep saual tastaghan avtor maqalasynda, – Japon premieri Sindzo Abening Gollandiyadaghy otyrysta: «Qyrym mәselesi siyaqty jaghday Japoniyada da tuyluy jәne Qytay Sinkaku aralyna kóz tigip, Reseyden ýlgi aluy mýmkin. Sondyqtan, Qyrym mәselesinde Reseyge mýlde jol beruge bolmaydy,-degen sózin keltire otyryp: «Resey Qyrymdy iyelenip alghanynday, eger Qytay azattyq armiyasy shabuyl jasap, Sinkaku aralyn basyp alsa, Japoniya armiyasynyng Qytaymen úrys sala alatyn quaty bar, onyng ýstine Japoniyagha Amerika kómek kórsetedi»,-dep atap kórsetken.

Sonday-aq, maqalada eger Qytay resmy armiyasymen emes, bәlkim, balyqshylar keypine enip alghan әskery qosynymen araldy iyelenip alghan jaghdayda, Japoniya konstitusiyasyndaghy beybitshilik turaly zanynyng toghyzynsha babyna boyynsha, Japoniya qorghanys kýshterining әskery shabuyl jasauyna bolmaydy, tipti, Amerika әskerleri de eshtene istey almaydy eken. Qytay әskery kemelerimen úrys bastar bolsa ghana, Japondar óz qorghanysyn kýsheytu ýshin әsker qoldana alady. Eger Qytay balyqshylardyng kiyimderimen beyresmy shabuylgha óter bolsa, Japon armiyasy jogharydaghy zang boyynsha, ashyq soghys jýrgize almaytyny qazirgi jaghdaydan belgili bolyp otyr degen mәselede kóterilgen.

Iidzima Isao óz maqalasynda eger Japoniya beybitshilik zanynyng toghyzynshy taraushasyn ózgertpese, Japoniyanyng ózin qorghauda óte qiyn jaghdayda qalatyndyghyn aityp, Abe Ýkimetinen zangha ózgeris engizudi Japoniya parlamentinde kóp ret talap etken. Alayda, ol talaptary beybitshilikti jaqtaushy ózge partiyalar tarapynan toytarylyp kelgenin de jazghan.

Japon sayasy sarapshysy maqalasynyng sonynda ótken tarihta Qytaydyng birneshe ret balyqshylar keypindegi әskery qosyndaryn Japoniya teniz aimaqtaryna jiberip, Japoniya araldaryn basyp almaqshy bolghandyghyn eskertip, Japoniya Qytay balyqshylaryna qarsy túruda jaqsy oilanuy tiyis, Qyrym jaghdayynyng Sinkakuda qaytalanu mýmkindigining óte joghary ekendigin atap kórsetken.

 

Maqalanyng týpnúsqadaghy taqyryby: Qytay Aziyadaghy territoriyalyq talastaryn sheshude «Rashn-Stayl» qoldanuy mýmkin be?

http://indiandefence.com/threads/will-china-use-russian-style-tactics-to-settle-territorial-disputes-in-asia.45782/

«Shukan Bunshun» jurnaly, Japoniya.

Aghylshyn tilinen audarghan - Talghar DÁLELGhAZY.

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