«EURAZIYa - ÚLY ShAHMAT TAQTASY»: JENISKER BÝKIL ÁLEMGE IE BOLADY

Z. Bjezinskiyding osy bir boljamy rasqa ainalatynday. Múny Ukrainadaghy jaghday da dәleldey týsude. Álemdegi eng iri alpauyt memleket AQSh-tyng býgingi syrtqy sayasaty osyghan keledi. Búrynghy KSRO-nyng múrageri, astam derjavashyldyghynan aiyrylghysy kelmey jantalasyp jatqan Reseyding býgingi әreketi de osyghan iytermeleydi.

 Bjezinskiy – antikommunizmning jәne sosialistik jýie men Kenes Odaghynyng kýireuining basty iydeologtarynyng biri jәne «jana әlemdik tәrtip» iydeyasynyng avtory bolyp sanalady. «Úly shahmat taqtasy: Amerikanyng artyqshylyghy jәne onyng geostrategiyalyq imperativteri» (1997) kitaby osy zamanghy geosayasat jónindegi tanymal enbekterding qatarynan oryn alady. Osy enbekte aitylghanday amerikandyq artyqshylyq ózining qalyptasuynyng qaryshtylyghymen, jahandyq auqymdarymen jәne jýzege asyru tәsilderimen erekshelenedi

Jana túrpatty gegomaniyany sipattap jazghan Z.Bjezinskiyding aituynsha, Euraziya - «Úly shahmat taqtasy», ondaghy «birden-bir shynayy әri eng songhy astam derjava» - Amerika Qúrama Shtattary ózining әlemdik artyqshylyghyn saqtap qalu ýshin óz partiyasyn oinatugha tiyis. Búl atalmysh kitapqa ózek bolghan iydeyanyng temirqazyghy. Bjezinskiy kitabynyng tarihta oryn alyp, kontiynenttik jәne әlemdik ýstemdikten dәmetken búrynghy-songhy imperiyalardy taldaugha arnalghan tarihy bólimi ghylymiy-tarihtyq túrghydan onyng essesining eng sәtti bólimderining biri bolyp tabylady.

Kenes Odaghynyng ydyrau sebepterin taldaghan Z.Bjezinskiy kenestik әskery quat jәne ol Batys elderin titiretken ýrey úzaq uaqyt boyy baqtalastar arasyndaghy eleuli assiymetriyany jasyryp kelgendikten boldy deydi. Avtordyng aituynsha: «Amerika әldeqayda bay edi, tehnologiyalardy damytu salasynda әldeqayda ilgerilep ketken-di, әskery salada neghúrlym jasampaz da tartymdy bolatyn. IYdeologiyalyq sipattaghy shekteuler de Kenes Odaghynyng jasampazdyq әluetin әlsiretti, onyng jýiesin barghan sayyn kertartpa, al ekonomikasyn barghan sayyn berekesiz jәne ghylymiy-tehnikalyq túrghydan bәsekege qabiletsiz ete týsti. Beybit jarys barysynda tarazy basy Amerika paydasyna qaray auugha tiyis bolatyn».

Osylaysha, búryn bolghan kóptegen imperiyalar siyaqty Kenes Odaghy sayyp kelgende tikeley әskery jenilisting emes, ekonomikalyq jәne әleumettik problemalar jedeldetken ydyrau prosesining qúrbany bolyp ishten jaryldy da, bólshektenip ketti. Sosialistik jýie men KSRO-nyng bólshektenip ketuining nәtiyjesinde AQSh biregey jaghdayda bolyp shyqty. Olar birinshi jәne birden-bir shyn mәnindegi әlemdik derjavagha ainaldy.

KSRO-nyng ydyrap bitetinin boljay alghan Bjezinskiy AQSh-tyng kóshbasshylyq rólin joghary baghalady jәne onyng әlemdik ýstemdigining aldaghy edәuir uaqytqa deyin jalghasatyna sendi.  Bjezinskiyding aituynsha qazirgi uaqyttaghy әlemdik derjava retindegi Amerika Qúrama Shtattarynyng auqymy men yqpaly biregey. Ol әlemning múhittary men tenizderining barlyghyn baqylap qana otyrghan joq, teniz desanty kýshterimen jaghalaulyq baqylau ýshin kóz jetkizerlik әskery mýmkindikter jasady, múnyng ózi oghan qúrghaqtaghy óz biyligin eleuli sayasy saldarlarmen jýzege asyrugha mýmkindik beredi.

Onyng әskery legiondary Euraziyanyng batys jәne shyghys shetterinde senimdi bekinip aldy. Múnyng ýstine ol Parsy shyghanaghyn baqylauda ústap otyr. Amerikanyng vassaldary men tәueldi memleketteri (olardyng keybireuleri Vashingtonmen búdan da berik resmy baylanystar ornatugha tyrysady) býkil Euraziya kontiynentine taraldy.

KSRO-nyng ydyrauyna qaramastan әskeriy-kýsh quatyn joghalta qoymaghan jәne ýstemdikke úmtylu әreketinen bas tartpaghan Resey men jedel ekonomikalyq damu ýstindegi Qytay AQSh-tyng әlemdik kóshbasshylyghy men ýstemdigine jol bergisi joq. Múnyng ózin olar últtyq mýddege qayshy dep esepteydi. Jәne búl elderde AQSh-tyng ómirlik strategiyalyq manyzdy mýddelerine qater tóndire alatyn yadrolyq kýsh-quattary da bar. Desek te, Bjezinskiyding aituyna sensek osy sәtke jәne tayaudaghy bolashaqqa, búl elder ózin-ózi qúrtyp tynatyn yadrolyq soghysty bastay aluy mýmkin bolghanymen, olardyng eshqaysysy da onda jeniske jete almaydy. Ózining sayasy yrqyn kýshtep tanu ýshin әskerlerin alys jerlerge jetkize alu mýmkindigi joq jәne tehnologiyalyq túrghydan Amerikadan kóp artta qalghan olardyng býkil dýnie jýzinde túraqty sayasy yqpal jasaytyn qúraldary (nemese tayaudaghy uaqytta ózderin múnday qúraldarmen qamtamasyz ete almaydy) joq.

Bjezinskiyshe aitsaq, Amerika әlemdik biylikting sheshushi manyzy bar tórt salasynda basym pozisiyagha iye: 1) әskery salada onyng әskerdi jedel jetkizuge tendesi joq jahandyq mýmkindikteri bar; 2) ekonomika salasynda, tipti jekelegen baghyttarda Japoniya men Germaniya (búl elderding eshqaysysyna әlemdik qúdirettilikting basqa ózgeshelik belgileri tәn emes) tarapynan bolatyn bәsekege qaramastan әlemdik damudyng negizgi qozghaushy kýshi bolyp otyr; 3) tehnologiyalyq jaghynan ol ghylym men tehnikanyng jetekshi salalarynda absolutti kóshbasshylyqty saqtap otyr; 4) mәdeniyet salasynda, onyng birshama qarabayyrlyghyna qaramastan, Amerikanyn, әsirese dýnie jýzining jastary arasynda, tendesi joq tartymdylyghy bar, - múnyng bәri Qúrama Shtattargha әlemning eshbir memleketi manaylay almaytyn sayasy yqpaldy qamtamasyz etedi. Naq osynau tórt faktordyng úshtasuy Amerikany osy sózding tolyq maghynasynda birden-bir әlemdik astam derjava etedi.

Avtor Euraziyalyq shahmat taqtasy men ondaghy figuralardy (elderdi) jәne jasalatyn jýristerdi oinata otyryp Amerika ýshin basty sayasy jýlde bolatyn - Euraziyagha ýstemdik etuding yqtimaldyghyn kórsetedi. «Úly shahmat taqtasy» kitabyndaghy Bjezinskiyding aitqanyna sensek: «Mynjyldyqtyng jartysy boyynda dýniyejýzilik isterde euraziyalyq memleketter men halyqtardyng yqpaly basym boldy, olar aimaqtyq ýstemdik ýshin bir-birimen qyrqysyp, jahandyq biylikke ie bolugha tyrysty. Býginde Euraziyadaghy basshylyq róldi euraziyalyq emes memleket oinaydy jәne Amerikanyng jahandyq birinshiligi onyng Euraziya kontiynentindegi artyqshylyghy qanshalyqty úzaq әri tiyimdi saqtaluyna, tikeley baylanysty bolady.

Bjezinskiy aitqanday Amerikanyng Euraziyany qalay «basqaratyny» asa manyzdy bolyp tabylady. Euraziya jer sharyndaghy eng iri kontiynent jәne geosayasy túrghydan ózekti oryn alady. Euraziyada ýstemdik etetin memleket eng damyghan jәne ekonomikalyq jaghynan jemisti әlemdik aimaqtardyng ýshten ekisin baqylauda ústar edi. Tipti qartagha bir qaraghannyng ózi Euraziyagha baqylau ornatu Afrikanyng avtomatty derlik baghyndyryluyn ilestirip, Batys jarty shar men Okeaniyany dýnie jýzining basty kontiynentining geosayasy shet aimaghyna ainaldyrady dep topshylaugha mýmkindik beredi. Álem halqynyng 75 payyzy Euraziyada túrady, sonday-aq әlemdik tabighy baylyqtyng kóp bóligi de onyng kәsiporyndarynda jәne jerining qoynauynda jatyr. Euraziyanyng ýlesine dýniyejýzilik JÚÓ-ning 60 payyzy jәne belgili әlemdik energetika qorlarynyng tórtten ýshine juyghy tiyesili.

Sonday-aq Euraziyada әlemning sayasy jaghynan eng belsendi jәne serpindi memleketteri ornalasqan. Qúrama Shtattardan keyingi kelesi eng iri alty ekonomika jәne qarulanugha eng kóp qarjy júmsaytyn alty el Euraziyada jatyr. AQSh-tan basqa barlyq ashyq yadrolyq derjavalar da,  barlyq jasyryn yadrolyq derjavalar da Euraziyada. Aymaqtyq gegemoniyagha jәne jahandyq yqpalgha eng kóp halqy bar eki ýmitker Euraziyada. Bjezinskiyding aituynsha «Amerikanyng artyqshylyghyna barlyq yqtimal sayasy jәne nemese ekonomikalyq qyr kórsetu Euraziyadan shyghady. Jiyntyghynda euraziyalyq qúdyret amerikan qúdyretinen әldeqayda asyp týsedi. Amerikanyng baghyna qaray, sayasy túrghydan birtútas bolugha Euraziya tym úlan-ghayyr».

Osylaysha, Bjezinskiy sipattap kórsetken Euraziya jahandyq ýstemdik ýshin kýres jalghasyp jatqan shahmat taqtasy bolyp tabylady. Geostrategiyany - geosayasy mýddelerdi strategiyalyq basqarudy - shahmatpen salystyrugha bolsa da, birshama sopaqshalau bolyp keletin euraziyalyq shahmat taqtasynda eki emes, birneshe oiynshy oinauda, olardyng әrqaysysynyng әrtýrli biylik dәrejesi bar. Jetekshi oiynshylar shahmat taqtasynyng batys, shyghys, ortalyq jәne ontýstik bólikterinde ornalasqan. Shahmat taqtasynyng batys bóliginde de, shyghys bóliginde de adam tyghyz ornalasqan aimaqtar bar, olar salystyrmaly týrde halqy tym kóp kenistikte birneshe qúdyretti memleketti qúraydy. Al Euraziyanyng shaghyn batys shet aimaghyna kelsek Amerikanyng quaty tikeley sonda óristetilgen. Barghan sayyn quatty da tәuelsiz bolyp kele jatqan, orasan zor halyqty baqylauda ústaytyn oiynshynyng mekeni - Qiyr Shyghystyq materik - әlgi oiynshynyng birneshe jaqyn araldargha qamalghan jigerli qarsylasynyng aumaghy men shaghyn qiyrshyghystyq týbekting jartysy amerikandyq ýstemdikting enuine jol ashady.

Osynau orasan zor, jiyekteri tang qalarlyq, Lissabonnan Vladivostokqa deyin sozylyp jatqan euraziyalyq shahmat taqtasynda «oyyn» figuralary ornalasqan. Bjezinskiyding boljamynsha «eger ortalyq bólikti Amerika basym Batystyng kenip kele jatqan orbitasyna engizu mýmkin bolsa, eger ontýstik aimaqta bir oiynshy ýstem bolyp shyqpasa jәne eger Shyghys Amerikany ózining tenizding arghy betindegi bazalaryn tastap ketuge mәjbýr etetindey ghyp birikpese, onda Amerika jeniske jetedi deuge bolady. Biraq eger ortalyq bólik Batysqa toytarys berse, belsendi birtútasqa ainalsa, ne Ontýstikti baqylauda ústasa, ne iri shyghys memleketi qatysatyn odaq qúrsa, onda Amerikanyng Euraziyadaghy jetekshi róli kýrt tarylady. Eger eki iri shyghys oiynshysy әiteuir bir jolmen birige alsa da, solay bolyp shyghady.»

Z.Bjezinskiy AQSh-ty býkil Euraziyagha qatysty keshendi, jan-jaqty әri úzaq merzimdi strategiyany taldap әzirleuge shaqyra otyryp, «Úly shahmat taqtasy» kitabyn bylaysha qorytyndylaydy: «Aldaghy uaqytta, Qúrama Shtattar teginde Amerikany Euraziyadan yghystyrugha tyrysatyn aimaqtyq koalisiyalardy qalay jónge salu kerektigin sheshuge tiyis bolady, óitkeni, búl әlemdik derjava retindegi Amerika mәrtebesine qater tóndiredi. Alayda múnday koalisiyalar amerikan ýstemdigi qyr kórsete me, joq pa, búl Qúrama Shtattar osynda nobaylanghan negizgi diylemmalardy qanshalyqty tiyimdi sheshe alatynyna is jýzinde óte ýlken dәrejede baylanysty bolmaq.

Bjezinskiyding «Úly shahmat taqtasy» kitabynyng basty qorytyndysy AQSh-tyng jәne onyng әlemdik ýstemdigining bolashaq taghdyry Euraziyadaghy geostrategiyasyna qatystylyghyn kórsetu edi. Álemning kindigi sanalatyn Euraziyany shahmat taqtasy retinde sipattaghan jәne búl oiynda jeniske jetkenning Euraziyada ghana emes, dýniyejýzilik imperiyanyng jәne geostrategiyanyng manyzdy yqpalyna ie bola alatyndyghyn kórsetken Bjezinskiy AQSh basshylyghyn Euraziyagha qatysty keshendi, jan-jaqty әri úzaq merzimdi strategiyany taldap әzirleuge shaqyrdy. Avtordyng atalghan kitaptaghy jәne basqa da enbekterine ózek bolyp otyrghan bir ghana iydeya Amerikanyng әlemdegi geosayasy basymdyghynyng qajettiligin dәleldeu bolyp tabylady.

Resey de búrynghy Kenes Odaghy kezindegi yqpal men bedeldi qaytarudy oilaydy. AQSh-tyn, atap aitqanda NATO-gha mýshe memleketterding Resey shekarasyna tym tayap kelui Resey biyligin alandatpay qoymauda. NATO-gha úqsas búrynghy Varshava Sharty Úiymy býginde joq. Sondyqtan da Reseyding búrynghy kenestik elderdi óz uysynda ústaugha jantalasuy da osydan. Ghasyrlar boyy Reseyding bauyrynday bolyp kelgen Ukrainanyng Batysqa qaray integasiyalanugha úmtyluy búl alandaushylyqty odan әri ýdete týsti. Orys memleketi ózining alghashqy memlekettik qúrylymyn sonau IX ghasyrda Kiyev Rusinen bastaghanyn da úmytugha bolmaydy. Ózining bauyrynday bolghan elding Batysqa bet búrghanyn Reseyding keshirgisi de joq. Diplomatiyalyq jolmen sheshe almaghanyn kýshpen sheshuge úmtyluy barlyq astam memleketterde bar.

Euraziya taqtasyndaghy oiynda Reseyding de jeniske jetkisi keledi. Kezinde Resey biyleushilerining biri «Orys soldattary Ýndi múhittarynda attaryn suaratyn bolady» dep aitqany da úmyt bola qoyghan joq. Býgingi kýni de Aughanstandaghy jaghdaydy syltauratqan Reseyding Ontýstik Aziyagha qaray úmtylu әreketi bayqalady. Alpauyt elderding búl әreketteri әlemdik beybitshilikke qauip tóndirude.

Sayasatty túlghalar jasaytyndyghy da ras eken. Memleket mýddesinen asyp týsetin olardyng jeke mýddeleri sayasatty shiyelenistirude. Putin de, Oboma da aitqandarynan qaytar emes. Olardyng bir-birinen kishireygisi joq. K. Klauzevisting «Ónerlerding ishinde soghysty tek saudamen ghana salystyrugha keler  edi, óitkeni , ol adam mýddeleri men is - әreketining kiykiljini, soghysqa sayasat anaghúrlym jaqyn, ony iri dengeydegi ózindik sauda dep qarastyrugha bolady» dep aitqanynday memleket basshylarynyng bir-birine doq kórsetui de әlemdik qauipsizdikke qater tóndiredi. Sol Klauzevis aitqanday «Sayasy niyet – maqsat, al soghys tek qúral, sondyqtan qúraldy eshqashan maqsattan bólip alugha bolmaydy».  Biraq әlemge beybitshilik kerek. Sondyqtan da sayasatkerlerge parasat pen sabyrlylyq tileymiz.

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