Ukrainadaghy sayasy daghdarys ózining kelesi kezenine ótti. Donesk pen Luganskide ótkizilgen referendumdarda búl aimaqtardyng tәuelsizdigin jariyalau mәselesi qarastyryldy. Halyqtyng kópshilik bóligi aldyn ala kýtilgendey Ukrainadan bólinip shyghu iydeyasyn qoldap otyr. Ontýstik-Shyghys Ukrainanyng ózge aimaqtary da osynday referendum ótkizuge niyetti ekendigin jasyrmauda. Búl sayasy jaghdaydyng damuy qayda aparady degen saual kópshilikti mazalap otyrghandyghy anyq.

         Birinshiden, Ukrainadaghy referendumdy qanshalyqty dәrejede zandy dep moyyndaugha bolady? Ontýstik-Shyghys Ukrainadaghy búl ýderisting bastaluyna tikeley yqpal etken faktor: Qyrymnyng Resey qúramyna enui. Býgingi kýrdeli ekonomikalyq daghdarys jaghdayyndaghy Ukrainagha qaraghanda, Resey shyn mәninde halyqtyng kópshiligine ong bolyp kórinui mýmkin. Degenmen, referendum ótkizu kezinde Doneskide de, Luganskide de әskery qysym bolghandyghy belgili. Ónirding erekshelikteri men «demokratiyalyq qúndylyqtardyn» әli tolyq ornamaghandyghyn eskersek, avtomat aldyndaghy referendumnyng qanshalyqty «halyq qalauyn» kórsetetindigine kýmәn tuady.

         Ekinshiden, Ukrainanyng ózindegi últshyldyq, orys últy basym aimaqtarda «antiukraindyq últshyldyqpen» almastyryldy. Shyn mәninde halyq dauys bergende, «Ukrainanyng qúramynan shyghugha» dauys berdi me, joq әlde últtyq memlekettik pen Europalyq vektorgha arqa sýiegen Kiyevke qarsy dauys berdi me? Eger ekinshisi oryn alghan bolsa, doneskilik saylaushylar óz pikirin Preziydent saylauy kezinde aiqyndasa bolar edi. Degenmen, ishki mýddeli sayasy toptar osynday referendum arqyly Donesk júrtshylyghyn demokratiyalyq, zandy saylaugha qatysu arqyly Ukraina preziydentin tandau mýmkindiginen aiyryp otyr.

         Ýshinshiden, referendum oryn alu ýshin Konstitusiya boyynsha qoyylatyn talaptar bar. Búl jalpy ukrain halqynyng ýshten ekisining talaby boyynsha nemese Preziydent jәne Parlament sanksiyasy arqyly jýzege asyrylatyn prosedura bolyp tabylady. Yaghni, referendum ótkizuding eshqanday qúqyqtyq talaptary saqtalyp otyrghan joq. Múnda tipti Donesk oblysy halqynyng ózining 70 payyzdan astamy qatysyp, olardyng ishinde, kópshiligi memlekettik egemendik jariyalau iydeyasyn qoldady deuding ózi artyq aitylghan sóz.

         Tórtinshiden, referendum ótkizuding barysyndaghy saylau komissiyalary men dauys sanau ýderisining úiymdastyryluy. Stalin zamanynan qalghan laqap sózding biri «Saylauda manyzdysy dauystyng qalay berilgendigi emes, onyng qalay sanalghandyghynda». Yaghny saylau komissiyalaryn úiymdastyru tolyqtay separatistik biylikting qolynda boldy. Teoriyalyq túrghydan zandylyq kórinisi saqtalghanymen, is jýzinde dauys sanaugha beytarap túlghalar qatysty deuge negiz joq. Demek, referendum nәtiyjelerining ózi de ýlken kýmәn tudyrady.

         Besinshiden, dauys beruge kimder qatysty? Donesk oblysynyng túraqty azamattary ma, joq әlde dәl sol uaqytta Donesk aimaghynda bolghan uaqytsha túrghyndar da ma? Resmy mәlimetterge sәikes referendumgha Donesk aimaghyndaghy barlyq túrghyndardyng 70 payyzdan astamy qatysty. Yaghny búl qúramda Donesk aimaghynyng túrghyny bolyp eseptelmeytin, Ukrainanyng týrli aimaqtarynan Kiyevting sayasatyna qarsy toptasqan qauymdastyqtar da qatysty. Shyn mәninde Kiyev sayasatyna qarsy barlyq toptar Doneski men Luganskidegi referendum qorytyndylaryna әser etti. Búl aimaq túrghyndarynyng pikiri emes, «antikiyevshilderdin» pikiri ekendiginde kýmәn joq.

         Altynshydan, referendumdy baqylau mehanizmderi әskery jaghdayda qanshalyqty tiyimdi júmys istey aldy? Resey arnalarynan kórsetilgen resmy kórsetilimderding ózinde referendumdy úiymdastyruda birqatar mәselelerding bolghandyghy angharylady. Saylau uchaskelerining dúrys bólinbeui, bulletenderding jetispeushiligi, baqylaushylardyng azdyghy aiqyn sezildi. Yaghny saylau prosesining tiyimsiz úiymdastyrylghandyghy aiqyn.

         Referendum nәtiyjeleri Ontýstik-Shyghys Ukrainany qayda aparady degen saualgha toqtalar bolsaq, múnda ýsh baghyt arasyndaghy qaqtyghysty sezuge bolady. Bir top, Ontýstik-Shyghys Ukrainanyng әr oblysynyng tәuelsizdigin qalaydy. Ekinshi top, Ukrainadan «bólingisi keletin» aimaqtardyng ózara birigip federasiya bolghandyghyn qalaydy. Ýshinshi top, Resey qúramyna kiru iydeyasyn qoldap otyr. Qay baghyt basym týsse de búl oblystardyng aldynda birneshe iri mәsele bar. Birinshiden, búl oblystardyng tәuelsiz subekt retinde moyyndaluy. Europa odaghy men resmy Kiyevting búl elderdi moyyndamaytyndyghy turaly mәlimdemesi shyghyp ýlgerdi. TMD elderine keletin bolsaq, Reseyge qarsy sayasat ústanyp otyrghan, Gruziya bastaghan elder búl aimaqtardy moyyndauy ekitalay, tipti Euraziyalyq ekonomikalyq qauymdastyqqa mýshe elderding ózi Donesk halyq respublikasyn óz qúramyna qabylday almaytyndyghyn jariyalap ýlgerdi. Resmy Mәskeu, referendum nәtiyjelerine «týsinistikpen qaraytyndyghyn» aitumen shekteldi, yaghny tipti resmy Mәskeuding ózi búl aimaqtardaghy referendumgha degen pikirin ayaghyna deyin aiqyndamady deuge negiz bar.

         Resey búl aimaqtardy óz qúramyna qabyldamaq týgili, tәuelsizdigin moyyndaudyng ózi halyqaralyq sanksiyalardy kýsheytetin faktor ekendigin týsinedi. Resmy Kremli әriyne әu basta Qyrymdy óz qúramyna qosu ýshin jasaghan әreketterin Ontýstik-Shyghys Ukrainanyng jana subektilerine qatysty qoldanuy ekitalay. Óitkeni búl aimaqtardyng strategiyalyq manyzy Qyrymnan tómen, al AQSh pen Euroodaq tarapynan paydalanyluy mýmkin sanksiyalar men qauipting dengeyi joghary.

         Kelesi mәsele - Ukrainadaghy Preziydent saylauy mәselesi. Shyn mәninde ózin derbes dep jariyalaghan el azamattarynyng formalidy týrde ózge el Preziydent saylauyna qatysugha qúqyghy joq. Biraq Donesk halyq respublikasynyng biyligi túrghyndardy Ukraina Preziydenti saylauyna qatysugha ýgitteui qyzyq kórinedi. Nelikten degen saualgha toqtalar bolsaq, Resey Ukrainadaghy «orys últy» faktorynan airylghysy kelmeydi. Orys últynyng ókilderi Ukrainadaghy eng yqpaldy qauymdastyqtardyng biri. Búl faktor búghan deyin resmy Kiyevti tejeushi qúral retinde qoldanylyp keldi. Yanukovichting kezinde «Aymaqtar partiyasynyn» jenisine tikeley yqpal etken faktor da osy. Búghan «Reseydi qoldaushy ukraindardy» qossanyz Ukrainanyng ishki, syrtqy sayasatyn baqylau mýmkindigine ie bolarynyz anyq. Resey óz qúramyna Qyrymdy qosyp alu arqyly Reseydi qoldaushy saylaushylardyng sanyn azaytty. Al endi Shyghys Ukraina óz derbestigin jariyalasa, Ukrainada «Úly kórshini» qoldaytyn belsendiler qúrdymgha ketedi. Yaghny resmy Kiyevting sayasatyna yqpal etu mýmkindigi azayady.

Búl mәseleni bylay qoyghanda Ukrainanyng ózge aimaghyndaghy orys últynyng ókilderining jaghdayy qiyndaydy. Shyghystaghy separatister ne ghúrlym belsendi әreket etse, Ukrainadaghy últshyldardyng ózge aimaqtardaghy belsendiligi arta týsedi. Yaghni, Reseyding ózge aimaqtardaghy «otandastardy qorghau, qoldau» sayasaty týkke túrmaytyn lozung bolyp qalary sózsiz.

         Bir qyzyghy bolyp jatqan daghdarystaghy dialog alanynda Ukraina, AQSh, Resey jәne Europalyq odaq bar. AQSh pen Euroodaq Ukraina aldyndaghy әriptestik mindetkerlikterin oryndap otyr. Ukrainanyng yadrolyq qarudan bas tartuyna sebep bolghan Budapesht shartyna sәikes qatysushy taraptar Ukrainanyng territorlyq tútastyghyna kepildik beredi. Al Reseyding búl shiyeleniske qanday qatysy bar ekendigi týsiniksiz. Qúqyqtyq túrghydan Resey Qyrymgha óz әskerlerin kirgizbegende AQSh pen Euroodaq búl daghdarysqa qatyspas edi. Yaghny Reseyding syrtqy sayasaty halyqaralyq qúqyqqa qayshy әriptestik qaghidalaryn ayaqasty etetin sayasat bolyp otyr. Óitkeni Resey әskerlerining Qyrymda boluyna, al Resey Ýkimetining tәuelsiz elding ishki sayasatyna aralasugha qúqyghy joq. Reseyding búl әreketi alysqa aparatyn qorytyndylargha jol ashady.

Shynghys Ergóbek

Abai.kz