Senbi, 8 Mamyr 2021
Ekonomika 6410 0 pikir 15 Tamyz, 2017 saghat 14:25

Reseyge AQSh salghan sanksiya Qazaqstangha әser ete me?

Ózining agressiyalyq syrtqy sayasatymen «jeksúryn» elge ainalghan Reseyge qarsy Amerika Qúrama Shtattary salghan songhy sanksiyadan tuyndaytyn «sauda soghysy» Qazaqstangha da qater tóndirui mýmkin. Qalyptasqan geosayasy jaghdaygha baylanysty, Reseymen ortaq sayasi-ekonomikalyq odaqta (EAEO) otyrghan Qazaqstannyng ekonomikasyna «sanksiya salqyny» qatty әser etu mýmkindigin el preziydenti Núrsúltan Nazarbaevtyng ózi de moyynday bastady. QR ýkimetining premier-ministrin qabyldaghan preziydent «mýmkin qaterden saqtanu» qajettigin eskertti.

Osy orayda bizding gazetting tilshileri «AQSh-Resey-Qazaqstan» qatynastaryna jiti kónil bólip jýrgen sarapshylar arasynda saualnama jýrgizgen edi. «Reseyding agressiyalyq sayasatyn auyzdyqtau ýshin salynghan AQSh sanksiyasy Qazaqstannyng ekonomikasyna auqymdy zardap keltirui mýmkin be jәne búl sanksiyanyng zalalynan saqtanu ýshin Qazaqstan biyligi qanday sayasi-ekonomikalyq sharalardy jedel týrde qolgha alghany dúrys dep oilaysyz?» degen saualdargha sarapshylar aitqan oi-joralghy tómendegidey boldy.

Múhtar TAYJAN, sayasatker:

Sanksiya salqyny sayasy rejimderdi kýiretedi

Amerika tarapynan engizilgen jana sanksiyalar, Reseydi Soltýstik Koreya jәne Iran sekildi memlekettermen bir qatargha qoydy. Búryn olay bolmaghan edi. Osyghan deyingi sanksiyalar preziydenttik búiryq retinde qabyldanyp kelse, qazir zang túrghysynan bekitildi. Qarjy jaghynan qarastyratyn bolsaq, endi Reseyge qaryz beruge jәne ýkimetting obligasiyalaryn satyp alugha bolmaytyn boldy. Búghan qosa reseylik bankterge beriletin qaryz 30 kýnnen 14 kýnge deyin qysqartyldy, ol degen týk emes.

Tehnologiyalyq túrghydan jasalghan shekteuler Reseyge kóp qiyndyqtar tughyzady. Sebebi, zamanauy tehnologiyasyz slanes, shelif jәne Arktika múnayyn óndiru mýmkin emes. Reseyding ózinde onday ozyq tehnologiyalar joq, ol tek Amerikada bar. Sondyqtan, ekonomikasy múnaygha tәueldi el ýshin, búl qosymsha qiyndyq bolatyny sózsiz.

Búghan qosa múnay-gaz qúbyrlaryn salugha qarajat (investisiya) bóluge shekteu qoyyldy. Býgingi tanda Reseyding 13 memleketke múnay-gaz tasymaldaytyn 90 qúbyry bar. Onyng ishinde Germaniyagha shiykizat tasymaldaytyn «Soltýstik aghyn» («Severnyy potok») qúbyryna qarjy bólinbeytin boldy. Biraq búghan Germaniya men Avstriya qarsylyq bildirip otyr. Búl qúbyrdy Resey óz aqshasyna salyp otyr desek te, onyng qajettigi ekitalay. Sebebi iske qosylghan qúbyrlardyng ózi tolyq quatpen júmys jasap jatqan joq. «Gazprom» ýshin qolda bar qúbyrlarynyng ózi de jetkilikti. Sondyqtan, «Severnyy potok-2» qúbyrynyng qajettigi kýmәn tughyzady. Mening oiymsha, búl qúbyrdy salu, jemqorlyq ýshin qajet bolyp túr.  Jana sanksiyalardyng taghy bir ereksheligi – bolashaqta AQSh preziydentteri – Tramp bolsyn, basqasy bolsyn, qabyldanghan sanksiyalardy óz búiryghymen toqtata almaydy. Ol óte manyzdy. Sol sebepti, qabyldanghan shekteuler Resey ekonomikasy ýshin keri әserin qatty tiygizetini jәne ony әlsiretetini sózsiz.

Endi Mәskeu qazirgidey kýshti bola almaydy. Reseyding ishki ahualy ózgerip, oppozisiyasy kýsheyedi. Sol sebepti, Mәskeu, qazaqstandyq biylikke kóp kómek kórsete almas. Tipti Reseyding ózine shashylyp, ydyrap ketu qauipi tónip túr. Sondyqtan búl jaghdaylar, Qazaqstangha da әserin tiygizedi. Bizge qazirgi kerek dýnie – ashyq, adal saylau. Bәlkim búl dәl qazir bola qoymas, biraq aldaghy 2–3 jylda boluy әbden mýmkin. Resey bolsyn, Qazaqstan bolsyn, ekonomikasy әlsiz memlekette, kýshti sayasy rejim bola almaydy.

 

Quanysh EDILHANTEGI, bloger (Aqtau qalasy):

Euraziyalyq odaqtan shyghugha talpynys jasau kerek

Resey Federasiyasyna songhy salynghan sanksiyanyng egjey-tegjeyi AQSh Kongresi saytynda jariyalandy, onyng orysshagha audarylghan núsqasy da internette bar. Sanksiyanyng óte auyr jәne tynghylyqty ekendigin RF Federasiya Kenesi de moyyndaghan.

Men búl AQSh-tyng Reseyge qarsy «sauda soghysy» degen tezispen onsha keliskim kelmeydi. Nege? Eng aldymen RF shetelge negizinen shiykizat qana satyp otyrghan el. Onyng qaru-jaraq, auyl sharuashylyghy ónimderi, tekstili, jenil ónerkәsip nemese basqa da tauar týrleri saudasyna qarsy eshkim de shekteu qoyyp otyrghan joq. Shekteu – Resey budjetine qomaqty qarjy әkeletin, sóitip onyng agressivti sayasatyn odan әri jalghastyra beruge mýmkindik beretin múnay, gaz shiykizatyn óndiru jәne satugha shekteu qoyyp otyr. Ekinshiden, Reseyge qarsy sauda soghysyn ashatynday, Batys Reseyding qay tauary naryghymyzdy jaulap alady dep qorqady? Batys tauar óndirushilerin qanday da bir salada naryqtan yghystyryp shygharu mýmkindigi bar reseylik tauar týri bar ma? Jalpy, búl әngime qaydan shyqqan?

Meninshe, «sauda soghysy» degen sózdi alghash qoldanghan RF ýkimeti basshysy D. Medvedev. Ol sanksiyagha Tramp qol qoyghan kýni Tvitterde jazba qaldyryp, sonda osy sózdi qoldandy. Múny aldymen reseylik BAQ-tar ilip әketti. Meninshe, múnday pikir aitushylar – Reseyding qazirgi sayasatyna ish tartushylar toby, solardyng lobbisteri nemese tapsyryspen júmys jasaytyndar boluy mýmkin.

Nege? Óitkeni búl әngimening týbinde AQSh-tyng sanksiya saluynyng shyn sebebin býrkemeleu sayasaty jatyr. Resey: «AQSh Europa naryghyna óz slanestik gazyn satqysy keledi, oghan Reseyding arzan gazy kedergi keltiredi, sondyqtan «sauda soghysy» arqyly Reseydi Europa naryghynan yghystyryp shygharu sayasaty jatyr» degen oidy tyqpalaydy, soghan eldi sendirgisi keledi. Al shyn jaghday mýldem olay emes qoy.

Shyndyghynda, búl sanksiyanyng salynuyna, kirispesinde atap jazylghanynday, Reseyding Ukrainagha qarsy agressiyasy, Siriyadaghy soghysqa Asad jaghynda aralasuy, t.s.s. sebepshi bolyp otyr. AQSh bastaghan Batys elderi orasan zor qasiret әkeletin qantógis soghysqa barmay-aq, ekonomikalyq qysym jasau jolymen Reseydi agressivtik pighylynan bas tartqyzghysy keledi.

Búl sayasat kýtkendegidey nәtiyje bere me? Men beredi degen senimdemin. Áriyne, RF sayasy basshylyghy «Múnday sanksiya salu, RF-ny oqshaulau sayasaty onyng syrtqy sayasatyn ózgertuine esh әser ete almaydy» dep jar saludan tanbay keledi. Búl endi, ritorikalyq demagogiyagha kóbirek úqsaydy. Ózderining úrda-jyq, birbetkey, tonmoyyn sayasattarynyng eldi qanday kiriptar jaghdaygha deyin jetkizgenin kórmeuleri mýmkin emes, alayda sony ashyqtan-ashyq moyyndaugha erik-jigerleri jetetin emes. Búl basshylyq moyyndamaghanmen de, biylikke kelesi keletin buynnyng múny aqyry bәribir moyyndaularyna tura keledi, óitkeni sanksiyalar úzaq merzimge, birneshe ondaghan jyldargha salynghandyghy aiqyn bolyp otyr.

Endi múnyng (sanksiyanyn) Qazaqstangha әseri qanday desek... Áriyne, sanksiya tikeley Qazaqstangha salynyp otyrghan joq, biraq ol bizding jaqyn kórshimizge, strategiyalyq odaqtasymyzgha, EAEO, Kedendik odaqqa birikken әriptesimizge salynyp otyr, sondyqtan da sanksiyanyng bizge esh әseri bolmaydy degen taza aqymaqtyq. Onyng bizge sózsiz әseri bolady.

Endi sol әseri qanshalyqty bolady – tereng be әlde jenil-jelpi me degen súraqqa kelsek, ol bizding Reseymen qanshalyqty ózara ekonomikalyq qarym-qatynasymyzgha tikeley baylanysty. Mening oiymsha, tәuelsizdikting alghashqy jyldarynda Resey óz ishki problemalaryna kóbirek kónil bóldi de, bizderge onsha nazar audara qoymady: mýmkin, qoly tiymedi, mýmkindigi bolmady. Sol kezderde bizding sayasy basshylyq birshama reformalar jasap, tәuelsiz birqatar jetistikterge jetkendey boldy. Keyin búl prosess bayaulady. Ásirese songhy jyldary sayasy da, ekonomikalyq ta ómir toqtap qalghanday әser qaldyrady – biz barlyq sharuany EAES qúrghan komissiyagha artyp tastap, ekonomikany óz betimen jiberip, birynghay toy toylaumen shúghyldanyp ketkendeymiz. Múnday jaybaraqatshylyq iz-túzsyz ketpeydi degen oidamyn, saldary tym auyr boluy mýmkin.

Naqtyraq aitayyq. Mysaly, sanksiyanyng Resey ekonomikasyn tikeley toqyratugha baghyttalghany anyq. Al Resey biz ýshin ekonomikalyq lokomotiv rólin atqaryp otyrghan el – biz syrttan importtaytyn tauarymyzdyng jobamen 1/3-in Reseyden alamyz. Sanksiya saldarynan Resey búl tauarlaryn endi búrynghy baghamen bere almauy mýmkin. Valuta tapshylyghyna úrynatyndyqtan ol syrtqa shygharatyn tauarlaryna, әriyne, baghany kóteredi. Búl bizdi odan әri kedeylendire týspese, bayytpaytyny anyq. Ekinshi jaghynan, eksporttaytyn tauarlarymyz da Resey arqyly jýzege asuda. Mysaly, KTK múnay qúbyry, gaz qúbyry, temir jol qatynasy, t.s.s., Resey arqyly ótip jatyr. Olardyng tranzittik baghasynyng kýrt óspeytindigine esh kepildik joq.

Aldyn-ala boljauy qiyn «tosynsyilar» da boluy ghajap emes. Mysaly, júmyssyz qalghan migranttar tasqyny qalalarymyzdy topan suday basyp, ondaghy óz qazaqtarymyzdy enbek naryghynan yghystyryp shygharuy nemese jergilikti kompradorlyq biylik ókilderi tarapynan reseylik bizneske basymdyq berilui mýmkin.

Endeshe sanksiya salqynyna ilikpeu ýshin ne isteuge bolady? Meninshe, elimizge eshqanday da payda әkelmegen, qayta orynsyz shyghyndargha batyrghan Euraziyalyq Ekonomikalyq Odaqtan, Kedendik odaq (Reseymen aradaghy dep týsinu kerek – Red.) siyaqty paydasyz qúrylymdardan shyghugha talpynu kerek. Ózbekstanmen, AQSh, EO elderimen qarym-qatynasty kýsheytuge baghyt ústau kerek shyghar.

Toqtar ESIRKEPOV, ekonomist:

Kópvektorly sayasatqa ekonomikalyq basymdylyq qajet

Áriyne, sanksiyanyng zardaby bolatyny anyq. Óitkeni Euraziyalyq odaqqa mýshe bolghan Qazaqstan men Reseyding ekonomikasynda eki jaqty útylys boluy әbden mýmkin. Qarjy men energetika salasy, biyliktegi toptardyng biznesi kenestik kezennen bir-birimen baylanysy jalghasuda. Qazaqtyng múnayy Resey arqyly tasymaldanatynyn eskersek, Euraziyalyq odaqqa mýshelikke ótkennen beri atalmysh sektorlardyng arasyndaghy baylanys kýsheye týsti. 2025 jylgha deyin ortaq qarjy kenistigin jasaymyz degen sayasat jýrgizilip jatyr. Birynghay valutany engizu jóninde bastamalar kóterilude. Birtindep osy qarjy-ekonomikalyq, múnay-gaz sektorlary ortaq ekonomikagha qaray kóshirilude. Múnday ekonomika týbinde bir memlekettilikke әkelui yqtimal. Resey biyligining kózdegeni de osy. Múnay-gaz salasyndaghy sanksiyanyng әseri Resey kompaniyalarymen baylanystaghy ortaq jobalargha zalalyn tiygizeri anyq.

Reseyge salynghan AQSh sanksiyasynyng Qazaqstangha әser bolmaydy degen әngime auyzeki aityla salghan pikir. Ásirese Euraziyalyq odaqqa mýshe bolghan el kimmen odaqtasqanyn bilui tiyis. Álem elderining aldyndaghy memlekettik imidj mәselesinde Euraziyalyq odaqqa mýshe memleketterge kólenke týseri aiqyn. Sanksiyanyng salqyny býgin de, bolashaqta da kesirin tiygizedi. Múnay-gaz salasy boyynsha salynghan sanksiya jana tehnika men tehnologiyanyng bolashaghyna kedergi jasaydy. Býgingi kýnning payymymen bayyptasaq, 2014 jyly Qyrym aneksiyasy boyynsha salynghan sanksiya Reseyding múnay-gaz sektorynyng damuyn tejep otyr, onyng bolashaghy qanday bolaryn baghamdau asa qiyn emes.

Degenmen Qazaqstan memleketining ekonomikalyq qarym-qatynasy tek qana Reseyge tәueldi emestigi belgili. Órkeniyetti damu jolyndaghy Batys elderimen, Amerika, Týrkiya, Qytay, Ontýstik Koreya, Japoniya t.b. eldermen baylanysyna eshkim kedergi jasap otyrghan joq. Euraziyalyq odaq shenberinde Qazaqstan Reseyding yqpalynan shygha almaydy desek – qatelesemiz. Damyghan elder – Úlybritaniya, Amerika, Fransiya, Italiya Qazaqstannyng múnay-gaz salasyndaghy negizgi aksionerler qatarynda. Memleket aralyq baylanystarda Qazaqstan-Angliya, Qazaqstan-Amerika, Qazaqstan-Japoniyamen ekonomikalyq qarym-qatynasqa sanksiya salynghan joq, demek biylik osy mәseleni aldynghy oryngha qoyady.

Bizding eksportymyzdyng 9 payyzy ghana Reseyge tiyesili de, al Reseyding Qazaqstangha keletin eksporty 2 payyzgha әreng jetedi. Osynday jaghdayda Resey ýshin Qazaqstannyng orny qay dengeyde ekenin baghamday beriniz. Reseyge qauip tóngen kezende, qazaqstandyq biylikting jýrgizip otyrghan kóp vektorly sayasatynyng útatyn túsyna basymdyq beriledi dep senemiz.

Marat TOQAShBAEV, publisist:

Ambisiyadan tughan aqymaqtyq

Sonymen Donalid Tramp Reseyge qarsy sanksiyalardy kýsheytetin zangha qol qoyypty! Aldynda ghana AQSh kongresining Ókilder palatasy ýsh dauys qarsy bolyp, 419 dauys qoldap ótkizgen joba Preziydentting qol qongyna jiberilgende orystar «Tramp búl zang jobasyna qol qoymaytyn shyghar» dep qatty ýmittengen. Ol bolsa oilanyp, tolghanyp bas qatyrghan joq. Signaturasyn sýikedi de saldy. Sóitip Resey Federasiyasyn Iran men KHDR qataryna aparyp qoyatyn qatang zang Mәskeu ýshin yadrolyq soqqydan kem bolghan joq. Grigoriy Yavlinskiy múny «Putin men Lavrovtyng býkil syrtqy sayasatynyng kýireui» dep otyr.

Qazir Resey ainalasyndaghy kýlli kórshilerimen qyrghiqabaq jaghdayda. Baltyq jaghalauy elderi bayaghyda-aq teris ainalyp ketken. Ukrainamen soghys jýrip jatyr. Moldovamen, Gýrjistanmen eges tausylar emes. Beloruspen til tabysu qiyndaghan. Momaqan Qazaqstan eshteme sheshe almaydy. Ortalyq Aziya elderimen baylanys Aughanstannan tóngen qauipti seyiltuge jarasa, sonyng ózi qúba qúp.

Reseyding ainalasynda senetin kýshti dosy joq. Qytay kómek qolyn sozbasy anyq. EO ýshin Reseyden góri, AQSh manyzdy seriktes. Al AQSh-tyng jana zany ondaghan jyldargha sozylatyn qyl búrau. Kenes Odaghyna salynghan sanksiya 38 jyldan song әzer alynghanyn úmytpayyq. Reseyding AQSh-qa qarsy salamyz degen sanksiyalary týkke túrmaytyn balanyng oiynynday nәrse. Resey úlyderjavalyq ambisiyasy men әsireúltshyl shovinizmi saldarynan ainalasyna shynayy dos jinaytyn mýmkindikten aiyrylyp qaldy. Resey Soltýstik Koreya siyaqty bәri týkiretin jiyirkenishti elge ainaldy.

Jaghdaydy qalay týzeuge bolady? Yavlinskiyding úsynysy: Qyrym týbegining halyqaralyq-qúqyqtyq jaghdayyn anyqtau ýshin halyqaralyq konferensiya úiymdastyru qajet әri legitimdi referendum ótkizu manyzdy. Ekinshiden, Donbasta soghysyp jatqan әskerin keri shaqyryp, Ukrainamen shekarasyn bekitip, shiyelenis nýktesine qaru-jaraq pen әskery tehnika jetkizudi toqtatqany jón. Ýshinshiden, Reseyding Siriyadaghy azamat soghysyna qatysuyn dogharuy qajet.

Eger osy ýsh qadam jasalmasa, Reseyding songhy imperiya retinde ómir sýruin toqtatatyn kezge kuә bolarymyz anyq.

Salynghan sanksiyalardan Iran tize býkpey-aq shyqqan joq pa, sondyqtan Reseyding qylshyghy qisaymaydy deydi Reseydi tәnir tútqandar. Ol ras. Iran ýkimet pen halyqtyng diny negizde biriguining arqasynda sanksiyalardan saqayyp shyqty. Al korrupsiya jaylaghan, halqy bólek, ýkimeti bólek ómir sýretin Resey beybit jaghdayda sanksiyalardan onay qútyla almaydy. Múndayda Reseyding halqyn biriktiretin jalghyz tәsili bar, ol – soghys. Sondyqtan Kremli «qyrghilary» qan tilep otyr. Alys-jaqyn kórshilerining birine tarpa bas salmasa bolghany...

Saualnamany dayyndaghandar –

Baqytgýl MÁKIMBAY,

Azamat ShORMANHANÚLY,

«D»

«Obshestvennaya pozisiya»

(proekt «DAT» №28 (392) ot 11 avgusta 2017 g.

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