Kýtpegen sebebimiz, biraz sarapshylar, sonyng ishinde men de: «Nazarbaev kózi tirisinde preziydenttikten ketpeydi» dep aityp keldik.

Ne bolsa da, formalidy týrde Nazarbaev preziydenttik ókilettigin toqtatty. Búl ózi Qazaqstan tarihynda búryn-sondy bop kórmegen jana jaghday.
Biraq ol Qazaqstan biyligining basty da birden-bir yqpaldy túlghasy retinde ókilettigin toqtatpady! Sol túrghydan alghanda «Nazarbaev biylikten óz erkimen bas tartty» dep baghalau artyqtau bolar.

Óitkeni, osyghan deyin qabyldanghan «Túnghysh preziydent – elbasy turaly» jәne «Qauipsizdik kenesi turaly» zandargha sәikes onyng elding ishki jәne syrtqy sayasatyna jýrgizer pәrmeni kóbeymese, azayghan joq!
Kerisinshe, ol endigi jerde atqarushy jәne zang shygharushy biylikten tys túryp, olardyng kýndelikti qyzmetine syny túrghyda bagha berip, qajet bolsa, búqaranyng sózin sóilep, sonyng arqasynda halyqtyng iltipatyna ie bola alady!

Osy túrghydan alghanda Nazarbaevtyng búl sheshimining astarynda biylik instituttary atqaryp jatqan qyzmetting nәtiyjeleri ýshin sayasy jauapkershilikten birjolata qútylu oiy jatqany bolsa kerek. Áytpese, songhy kezde halyqtyng biylik jýrgizip jatqan әleumettik-ekonomikalyq sayasatqa degen narazylyghy kýrt ósip, shydamnyng sharyqtau shegine jetkeni de ras emes pe? Jәne de uaqyt ótken sayyn synnyng negizgi baghyty ýkimetke emes, preziydentting jeke basyna qaray oiysyp jatty. Tipti osy kýnge deyin biylikti synaghanda preziydentting atyn atamay kelgen túlghalardyng ózi elde ornyqqan jaghday ýshin basty jauapkershilik kimge jýkteletinin ashyq aita bastady.

Endigi jerde júrt Toqaevty (nemese kelesi preziydent bolghan basqa adamdy), parlament jәne ýkimet basshylaryn synap, solargha qarsy qimyl-әreket jýrgizedi ghoy. Al formalidy týrde preziydent emes Nazarbaev sýtten aq, sudan taza bolyp qala beredi. Meninshe, osynau sayasy qadamnyng negizgi sebebining biri osy!

Biraq, shynyn aitu kerek, múnday sayasy manevrding bolashaghy búldyr, ótirik sekildi qúiryghy qysqa: ishki jәne syrtqy júrtshylyq mәselening nede ekenin týsinedi de, endigi jerde jana mәrtebege ie bolghan Nazarbaev elde qalyptasqan ahual ýshin jauapkershilikti biylikting basqa tarmaqtarymen qatar arqalaydy. Jәne de memlekettegi eng yqpaldy túlgha retinde onyng jeke jauapkershiligi odan sayyn artuy mýmkin. Sondyqtan da Nazarbaev qaytkende de jekebas jauapkershilik pen soghan qatysty ótkir synnan qútyla almaydy.

Sonymen birge ózinen keyingi biylikting konfigurasiyasyn qalyptastyryp ýlgermegen Týrkimenbasy men Kәrimovting mysaly Nazarbaevtyng kóz aldynda bolsa kerek. Sondyqtan da ol kózi tirisinde óz qolymen postnazarbaevtyq biylik modelin jasap, nyghaytyp ketkisi keletini әbden oryndy. Ol jýie tek qana onyng sayasatyn jalghastyrushy retinde emes, eng bastysy, preziydentting otbasy men onyng ainalasyndaghy yqpaldy oligarhtyq toptardyng kapitaly men menshigining saqtaluyna kepildik beretin boluy shart. Nazarbaev endigi jerde osy sharuamen naqty әri basybayly ainalysatyn bolady.

Biraq onday júmystyng bir talaby bar. Ol jýie Nazarbaevtyng jeke mýddesine say bop qala ma әlde 30 jyl boyyna demokratiyalyq degradasiyagha úshyrap, avtoritarizm men sayasy monarhiyagha jetip qalghan jýieni halyqtyng qalauyna say shynayy reformalau maqsatyna sәikes qúryla ma? Ony biz, ókinishke oray, bilmeymiz. Óitkeni Nazarbaev әli de sol ózine ghana baghynyshty komandalyq-әkimshilik jýieni saqtap qalghysy keletin siyaqty.

Nazarbaevtyng múnday asa sheshushi qadamgha baruyna onyng óz manayyndaghy yqpaldy toptardyng da әseri boluy mýmkin. Ózining milliardtarynyng basty kepili – bas biylik ekenin týsingen olar bolashaq sayasy jýieni Nazarbaev ketkennen keyin emes, dәl býgin әri onyng qolymen jasaqtap alghysy keletin bolar. Áytpese, erteng tym kesh bolyp ketui mýmkin.

Ne bolsa da, Qazaqstan óz damuynda jana kezenge qadam basyp jatyr. Jәne de búl mýldem ózgeshe jaghday bolky mýmkin. Kúlaq ta, kóz de elde eki ókimet – týnghysh preziydent pen ekinshi preziydent – bar ekenine ýirene bastaydy.

Mәselening halyqaralyq astary da bar siyaqty. Óitkeni, el ishindegi shynayy ahualdy bile bermeytin shetel basshylary men halyqaralyq demokratiyalyq instituttary ony shynymen de naqty sayasy biylikten óz erkimen bas tartty dep qabyldap, onyng osy qadamyn demokratiyalyq standarttargha say dep joghary baghalauy mýmkin emes pe?!

Alda – erte me, kesh pe – preziydent saylauy túr. Sózsiz, biylik, Nazarbaev әli de basqaratyn «Núrotan» partiyasy arqyly ózining negizgi ýmitkerin úsynady, onyng jeniske jetui ýshin bar kýshin salady. Áriyne, ol ýshin bir-birin andyp, ayaqtan shalyp, ayausyz tartysyp kele jatqan biylik manyndaghy klandardyng ózara kompromiske kelui shart. Onyng ózi óte-móte qiyn sharua. Sondyqtan «jer astynan jik shyghuy, eki qúlaghy tik shyghuy" әbden mýmkin. Onday qiyan-keski talas pen tartystyng ózi terendey týse, azamattyq soghysqa da úlasyp ketu qaupi taghy bar!

Biylik úsynatyn kandidatqa qarsy quyrshaq kandidattar da jasaqtalady. Ol jaghynan biylik birshama mashyqtanyp alghanyn bәrimiz de bilemiz.
Osy orayda ózderin oppozisiya sanaytyn kýshterding aldynda erekshe jauapty mindet túr. Ol – osy kýnge deyin birlikke núqsan keltirgen barlyq renish pen týsinbeushilikti ysyryp qoyyp, aldaghy saylaugha ortaq, biregey kandidat úsynu!

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