Qazaq halqynyng Reseyge bodan bol­ghannan bergi etnodemografiyalyq tarihy jolyn negizinde iri-iri ýsh dәuirge bóluge bolady. Birinshisi HVIII ghasyrdyng 30-jyldarynan 1917 j. deyin; búl Qazaq­stannyng Reseyding otary, qazaqtardyng etno­demografiyalyq damuy otarlyq-migrasiya­lyq (sonyng ishinde qonystandyru) sayasa­tynyng yqpalynda bolghan dәuir. Syrttan kelgen kóshi-qonnyn, әsirese Stolypinning agrarlyq sayasaty óristegen, sonymen birge qazaqtardyng arasynda tabighy ósim tómen, әrtýrli epiydemiyalar, júqpaly aurular, júttar kóp bolghan kezen. Osynyng bәrining nәtiyjesinde qazaqtardyng sany týrli ózge­risterge úshyrap, Qazan revolusiyasyna deyin óz elinde ýlesi edәuir (90%) bolgha­ny­men, HH ghasyrdyng ekinshi onjyldyghy sonyn­da, aimaqtardyng túrghyndarynyng әli de jartysynan kóbi (58,7%) bolghan, yaghny Ontýstik, Batys jәne Ortalyq aimaqtarda qazaqtardyng basymdyghy saqtalghan, Sol­týstik jәne Shyghys aimaqtarda slavyan, basqa etnos ókilderi kópshilikke ainala bastaghan kezen.

Ekinshisi, 1917-1991 jyldar, yaghny Kenes zamany. Búl qazaqtardyng talay asharshy­lyq­ty (1918, 1921 jәne 1931-1933 jylda­ry), qughyn-sýrgindi, zorlyq-zombylyqty kórgen, últtyq dәstýrler men tilge núqsan kelgen, әlippening ýsh ret ózgergen, syrttan kóshi-qonnyng iri-iri tolqyndary eldegi demografiyalyq ahualdy kýrt ózgertken jәne taghy basqa da kelensiz jaghdaylardyng saldarynan qazaq últynyng ózi ata qony­synda azshylyqqa ainalghan tús. Búl dәuirdi eki ýlken kezenge bóluge bolady: 1-kezeng 1917-1959 jyldar - qazaqtardyng óz elinde 58,7%-dan,28,9%- gha týsken kezeni; 2-kezeng - 1959-1991 jyldar, qazaqtardyng birtindep ýlesi óskenimen (40%), әli de kelimsekterden góri az bolghan kezen.

Ýshinshi dәuir - 1991-2009 jyldar, qazaq­tardyng óz elinde birtindep, kópshi­likke ainaluy. Búl dәuirdi de eki kezenge bóluge bolady: 1-kezeng - 1991-1999 jyldar - qazaqtardyng ýlesi respublika halqynyng jartysynan asqan kezeng (40%-dan 53,4%-gha jetken kezen); 2-kezeng - 1999-2009 jyldar - qazaqtardyng óz elinde basym kópshilikke ainala bastaghan (53,4%-dan 63,7%-gha deyin ósken) kezeni. Búl kezeng endi ghana bastaldy, әri qaray jalghasa beredi.

Endi qazaq halqynyng etnodemogra­fiya­lyq damu belesterine say, elimizdegi bolghan kóshi-qon kezenderin baylanystyra oty­ryp, últymyzdyng sany men qúramyn, qys­qasha bolsa da, qarastyryp óteyik.

Egemen el bolghanymyzdan keyin, myng ólip, myng tirilgen qazaq halqy derbes damugha mýmkindik alyp, alys-jaqynyn tý­gendep, Otan tuy astyna jinala bastady. 2009 jylghy Qazaqstandaghy halyq sanaghy boyynsha, sol jyldyng basynda óz elimizdegi qazaqtardyng sany 10 mln.-nan asyp týsti. Al osydan birer jyl búryn shetelderdegi otandastarymyzdyng sany 5,5 mln.-day degen derek bolghan-dy. Osyghan baylanysty qa­zirgi tanda qazaqtardyng jalpy sany (óz elimizdegiler men sheteldegilerdi qosa eseptegende) 15,5-16 mln. dep aitugha tolyq mým­kindik bar. Búl qazaq últynyng kóp ghasyrlar boyy, talay demografiyalyq apat­tardy bastan keshe otyryp, egemendik jagh­dayynda óz elindegi halyqtyng kópshiligine ainaluy edi.

Qazaq últynyng ótken kóp ghasyrlyq tarihy jolyna kóz salsaq, onyng sany men qúramynyng iri-iri sayasiy-әleumettik jәne ekonomikalyq betbúrystargha baylanysty jii jәne kýrdeli ózgeristerge úshyraghanyn bayqaymyz. Búl jaghday әsirese HH ghasyr­dyng ekinshi jartysyna deyin kópten-kóp belgili oqighalar arqyly kózge týsedi.

Orystyng kórnekti ghalymy A.I. Levshin (1797-1879) HVIII ghasyrdyng ayaghy men HIH ghasyrdyng 20-30 jyldaryndaghy statistiy­kalyq mәlimetterdi talday kelip, Resey imperiyasyndaghy qazaqtardyng jalpy sany (kórsetilgen kezende) 2,5 mln.-nan 3 mln.-gha deyin degen boljam aitqan eken. Ghalymnyng ózi aitqanday, ol zamanda qazaqtardyng arasynda sanaq isin jýrgizuding qiyndyq­tarymen qatar, sanaq qorytyndylarynyng tolyq jәne dúrys bolmaytyndyghy da ras edi. Sonymen birge Úly jýzde 100 myng ýi, Orta jýzde - 210 myng ýi, al Kishi jýzde - 190 myng ýy dep sanap, әr ýide orta eseppen 5 ne­mese 6 adam bolady dey kelip, sonyng qorytyndysynda 2,5-3,0 mln. bolady degen boljamnyng týptep kelgende, kópteu ekenin aita ketken jón. Ár ýy basyna 6 adamnan keledi degen qorytyndynyng ózi naqty emes ekenin aitpaghannyng ózinde, belgili ghalym­dardyng búl mezgilden keyingi qazaqtardyng jalpy sany turaly pikirleri bizding búl aitqanymyzdy rastay týsedi.

E.Bekmahanov 1947 jyly shyqqan «HIH ghasyrdyng 20-40 jyldaryndaghy Qazaqstan» degen monografiyasynda HIH ghasyrdyng 30-40 jyldarynda Kishi jýzde 100 myng ýy (bes adamnan) - 500 myng adam, Orta jýzde 116,5 myng ýy - tórt adamnan - 468 myng adam, Úly jýzde 95 myng ýy - 550 myng adam bol­ghan dep kórsetken-di. Yaghni, barlyq qazaq­tardyng sany 1mln. 518 myng bolyp shyghady. Óki­nishke oray, E.Bekmahanov ýsh jýzding qazaq­tarynyng sanyn anyqtaghanymen, olar­dyng jalpy sanyn qorytyndylamaghan, búghan bizding oiymyzsha, statistikalyq mәlimet­terding shynayy, naqty bolmauyna qosa, әr ýide keyde 4, keyde 5, nemese 6 adam dep sanaghannyng ózi de әser etken boluy kerek dep oilaymyz. N.Bekmahanova HIH ghasyr­dyng 60-jyldarynda Qazaqstan men Qyr­ghyz­stan jәne shekaralas aumaq­tarda 1mln. 643,4 myng qazaq jәne 353,1 myng qyrghyzdar meken etse, HIH ghasyrdyng 70-jyldarynda 2.416,5 myng qazaq jәne 542,5 myng qyrghyz boldy, dep jazady.

Ákeli-balaly Bekmahanovtardyng búl tú­jyrymdary naqtyly derekterge sýienip (salyq ýshin jýrgizilgen kiyiz ýy (kibitka) esebine) negizdelgendikten, shyndyqqa ja­qyn dep sanaugha bolady. Sebebi, kiyiz ýy esebi әr auyl, bolys jәne uezd (distansiya) boyynsha múqiyat jýrgiziletin, esepten qash­qandar men ony búzghandar qatty jaza­lanatyn. HIH ghasyrdyng 60-70 jyldary otarlyq biylikting qazaqtargha kiyiz ýy esebi arqyly salyq salu isin edәuir jolgha qoya alghanyn eskersek, búl boljamnyng dúrys­tyghy kýsheye týsedi. Degenmen, jogharyda kórsetilgen qazaqtar sany negizinde (әr kiyiz ýige ne 4, 5, ne 6 jan basynan keledi degen) boljamgha jaqyn ekenin basa aitqanymyz jón.

Alghashqy, naqtylyqqa bir taban jaqyn, qazaqtardyng jalpy sany, jastyq, jynys­tyq qúramy, bilim dengeyi (negizinde sauat­tylyghy turaly), әleumettik jaghdayy, dini, tili, tughan jerinde túrghandyghy jәne t.b.qúndy mәlimetterdi 1897 jyly 28 qantar­da jýrgizilgen Resey imperiyasy hal­qynyng birinshi jalpy sanaghynan ghana ala alamyz. Búl sanaqtyng nәtiyjesi boyynsha, Reseydegi qazaqtar, ana tiline qaray ból­gende, 4.084,1 myng adam edi, onyng 53,3%-y - erler, 46,7%-y әielder boldy. Qazirgi Qazaqstan Res­publiy­ka­sy aumaghynda qazaq­tar­dyng 3392,7 myny ómir sýrip, Reseydegi qazaq­tardyng 83,0%-dan asta­my osynda sho­ghyr­lan­ghan-dy. N.­Bek­maha­nova­nyng mәlimetteri bo­yynsha, Reseydegi qa­zaq­tardyng sany 1916 jyly 4678,8 myngha jetip, sol jylghy qazaq­tar­dyng patshagha qarsy kóterlisinen keyin, yagh­ny 1917 jyly 4061,3 myngha týsken.

N.Bekmahanova­nyng búl naqtyly derekterge sýiengen tújy­rym­darymen qabat, Á. Bó­keyhan jәne M. Ty­nyshbaev siyaqty últ kóshbasshylarynyng osy mәselede óz bol­jamdary bolghanyn aita ketken jón. My­saly, Á.Bókeyhan «ob­lystyq sholulardyn» mәlimetterine sýiene otyryp, 1908 jyly Reseyde 4,999,6 myn, al 1913 jyly 5 mln. 64 myng (Jetisu ob­lysyndaghy qyr­ghyz­dar­dy qosa eseptegende) qazaq bolghan, - dep jazghan-dy. Al M.­Ty­nyshbaev (óz derekterin kórsetpey-aq) bý­kil әlemde 1917 jyly 6,3 mln.-nan astam qa­zaq boldy, onyng 5,480 mln. Kenes odaghynda, 450 myny Qytayda, 100 myngha juyghy Au­ghanstanda túrady, - dep boljaghan-dy. Degenmen, búl pikirding derek kózderi belgisiz bolghandyqtan, әli de bolsa naqtylap zerttey týsudi qajet etedi.

Áriyne, 1916 jylghy kóterilisti qangha bóktirip basyp-janshu, sol jyly tyldaghy júmysqa alynghandar arasyndaghy ólim-jitim, azamat soghysy, 1918 jәne 1921 jyldardaghy asharshylyq, ólimning kóbeyip, tuudyng azangy jәne t.b. kelensiz jagh­daylardyng saldarynan, kóbisi kóshpeli, so­nyng nәtiyjesinde densaulyq saqtau jaghynan qorghansyz qazaq últynyng kóp shyghyngha úshyraghany da tarihtan belgili. Mine, sondyqtan 1926 jyly Býkilodaqtyq halyq sanaghy boyynsha, Kenes odaghyndaghy qazaq­tardyng sany 3 mln. 959,8 myngha týsti, yaghny 1897 jylmen salystyrghanda 567 myngha kóbeygenimen, 1917 jylgha qaraghanda (N.Bekmahanovanyng pikirine say - 4061,3 myng adam desek) - 101,5 myng adamgha kemigen, yaghny sol 9 jyl búrynghy dengeyden de az bolghan. 1926 jyly qazaqtardyng 3627,6 myny, yaghny 91,6 %-y ózderi tughan jerinde - Qazaqstanda ómir sýrgen.

Múnan keyingi jyldary bolghan baylar­dy tәrkileu, kulaktardy joy, jer audaru, 1931-1933 jyldardaghy jappay asharshylyq (keybir ghalymdardyng boljamy boyynsha 1,2 mln.-nan 2,5 mln.-gha deyin adam qaza bolghan), 1930 - jyldardaghy sayasy qu­ghyn-sýrgin jәne t.b. zorlyq-zombylyq sal­darynan qazaq últynyng sany kýrt tómen­dep ketti. 1939 jylghy Býkilodaqtyq halyq sanaghy boyynsha, Kenes odaghyndaghy qazaq­tardyng sany 3.100, 9 myngha týsip, 1926 jylgha qaraghanda, 858,9 myngha, yaghny 21,7%-gha azaydy. Qazaqtardyng 2.458,5 myny, yaghny 75%-y ghana óz respublikasynda ómir sýrdi. Qalghan 25%-y Kenes odaghynyng basqa aimaq­tarynda túrdy. Búlardyng kóbi Qazaq­stannan tys aimaqtarda bolsa da ózderining ata mekenderinde túrghanymen, edәuir bóligi asharshylyq pen qughyn sýrginnen aua kóship barghandar edi.

Jogharyda kórsetilgen kelensiz oqigha­lar­dyng saldarynan jәne Qazaqstangha syrt­tan kelgen kóshi-qon tolqyndarynyng ký­sheye týsui nәtiyjesinde, respublikadaghy qazaqtardyng ýlesi de qúldyrap týsip ketti. Eger 1897 jyly Qazaqstannyng qazirgi territoriyasyna say jer aimaghynda qazaq­tardyng ýlesi 81,7% bolsa, 1917 jyly 58,0 %, 1926 jyly 58,5%, al 1939 jyly 38,0%-gha deyin tómendedi. Ekinshi dýniyejýzilik soghys jyldary Qazaqstan halqy da kóp shyghyngha úshyrady, 1,2 mln. azamat Otan qorghaugha attandy, onyng jartysynan kóbi elge qayta oralmady, 700 mynnan astam adam tyldaghy auyr júmysqa shaqyryldy. Soghys jyldary túrghyndar arasynda ólim-jitim kóbeyip, tuu azaydy. Qazaqstangha kóptegen halyqtar (nemis, cheshen, qarashay, jәne t.b.) kýshpen audaryldy, Karlag, Step­lag siyaqty jerlerdegi tútqyndar kóbeydi. Soghystan keyin bastalghan tyng jәne ty­nayghan jerlerdi iygeruge, odaqtyq manyzy bar ónerkәsip oryndaryn salugha jәne damytugha 2 mln.-nan astam júmysshy kýshi keldi. Osynyng bәrining saldarynan res­publikadaghy qazaqtardyng ýlesi (sany 1939 jyly salystyrghanda 467,3 myngha kó­beygenine qaramastan) 28,9%-gha deyin týsip ketti, yaghny qazaqtar óz elinde halyqtyng azshylyghyna ainaldy, al orystar, ukraindar men belarustar kópshilik bolyp shygha keldi (olar tiyisinshe 42,7%, 8,2 % jәne 1,1% bolyp, ýsheuin qosqanda 52%-gha jetti).

1959 jylghy sanaq qazaqtardyng ýlesining eng tómengi qúldyrau shegi bolyp sanalady. Búdan keyin qazaqtardyng tabighy ósimi kýrt kóterildi («demografiyalyq dýmpu» dep te atalady), al ol halyqtyng jalpy sanynyng kóbengine әkeldi. Tabighy ósimning kýshengine ekinshi dýniyejýzilik soghystan keyin, әsirese halyq sharuashylyghyn qalpyna keltirip, da­myta týsken kezde, túrghyndardyng әl-auqaty jaqsaryp, densaulyq saqtau, әsirese analar men balalargha, kóp balaly otbasylargha degen qamqorlyq әser etti. Sonday-aq túrghyn ýy qúrylysynyng órkendeui, oqu-bilim salasynyng keneni jәne t.b. әleumettik jaghdaylardyng jaqsaruy da tabighy ósimge kýshti әser etti desek, qatelespeymiz.

Qazaq últynyng ósip-ónip kóbengine, sonyng nәtiyjesinde respublika túrghyndary arasynda óz ýlesining kóteriluine shet jerlerden qayta oralghan otandastarymyzdyng da әseri kýshti boldy. Qazaqstangha baghyt­talghan búl kóshi-qon ýrdisi 1918-1920, 1933-1935, jәne 1950 jyldardyng ekinshi jar­tysy men 1960 jyldardyng basynda jýrip ótti. 1916 jyly kóterilisti ayausyz basyp, qyrghyngha úshyratqan kezde 300 mynday qazaq pen qyrghyzdar Qytaygha qashyp, bas saughalaghan-dy. Olardyng kóbi 1918-1920 jyldarda qayta oraldy. 1931-1933 jyl­dardaghy asharshylyqtan aua kóshkenderding kóbi Resey, Ózbekstan, Týrkimenstan jәne basqa Kenes odaghy aimaqtarynda panalaghan-dy, olardyng da basym kópshiligi qaytyp oraldy. Syrt elderge, әsirese Aughanstangha, Iran, Týrkiyagha ketkender tәuelsizdik jagh­dayynda ghana qayta orala bastady. Tek Qytay Halyq Respublikasyndaghy qazaq­tardyng qayta oraluyna 1950 jyldardan bastap mýmkindik tudy. Búl Kenes odaghy men jana qúrylghan QHR arasyndaghy dostyq qatynastyng nәtiyjesi edi. Qytaydan kenes zamanynda oralghan qazaqtar sany turaly әrtýrli mәlimetter bar, keyde olardyng sanyn kóbeytip aitatyn jaghdaylar da kezdesedi. Songhy, naqtyly, múraghattan alynghan derekterge sýiensek, 1954-1963 jyldar aralyghynda Qytaydan úiymdasqan týrde, óz betinshe jәne basqa joldarmen qayta oralghandardyng sany 268371 adam bolsa, olardyng Qazaqstannyng oblys-audan­da­rynda qalyp, ornalasqandary 254398 adam, al qalghan 8989-y Kenes odaghynyng basqa aimaqtaryna ketken eken. Qazaqstanda qa­lyp, oryn tepkenderding basym kópshiligi qazaqtar edi, al basqalary úighyr, orys jәne әrtýrli últ ókilderi bolatyn.

Sonymen 1950-1980 jyldar aralyghyn­daghy tabighy ósimning kóterilui, syrttan keletin basqa últ ókilderining kóshi-qonynyng bәsendeui, Qytaydaghy qazaqtardyng orala bastauy jәne t.b. tiyimdi jaghdaylar respub­likagha óz atyn bergen últtyng sany da, ýlesi de ósip, qúramynyng nyghaya týsuine әkeldi. 1959-1989 jyldar aralyghynda qazaqtardyng sany 2.787,3 mynnan 6.534.6 myngha jetti, yaghny 2,3 ese ósti, al ýlesi 28,9%-dan 39,7%-gha jetip, 10,8%-gha ósti. Qazaqtar respubliy­kadaghy eng kóp últqa ainaldy, biraq orystar (37,8%), ukraindar (5,4%), belorustar (1,1%), yaghny shyghys slavyandar ókilderi (bәrin qosa eseptegende - 44,3%) men basqa orys tildi últ ókilderi (nemister - 5,8%, koreyler - 0,6% jәne t.b.) әli de Qazaqstan júr­tynyng jartysynan asyp túrdy.

Endi tәuelsizdik kezindegi qazaqtardyng jay-kýiine qysqasha bolsa da toqtalyp óteyik. Qazaqtardyng tәuelsizdik jaghdayyn­da sany ósip, ýlesi kóbeyi jogharyda aitylghan eki faktorgha baylanysty boldy: 1) tabighy ósim; 2) syrtqa ketetinderden ke­letinderding kóp boluy - ong aiyrym (salido), sonyng ishinde, әsirese otandas­ta­ry­myzdyng oralyp, tynghylyqty oryn tabuy.

Tәuelsizdikting alghashqy jyldary eko­nomikadaghy daghdarysqa baylanysty, әleu­mettik qiynshylyqtar kóbeygen kezde túr­ghyndardyng tabighy ósimi qúldyrap týsip ketti: 1987 jyly 18,1 promille bolsa, 1998 jyly 4,6 promille boldy (bir myng adamgha shaqqanda, tuu men ólimning aiyrmasy). Osydan keyin birtindep tabighy ósim qayta­dan kóterilip, 2000 jyly - 4,9; 2005 jyly - 8,05; al 2009 jyly 13,5 promillege jetti, degenmen әli de 1980 jyldardaghy kórset­kish­ke jete almay otyrmyz. Tabighy ósimning 90% qazaqtardyng esebinen ekenin eskersek, últymyzdyng ósui ken, tura jәne danghyl jolgha týsip, bolashaqta qazaqtardyng ósip-ónui qam­tamasyz etile bas­ta­ghanyn kóremiz. 2009 jy­ly tabighy ósim 215 mynday bolghanyn eskersek, keleshektegi qazaq­tyng sany óse beretinine senimimiz kýsheye týsedi.

Qazaqtardyng qataryn ósiretin ekinshi qaynar búlaq - sheteldegi otan­dastarymyzdyng qayta oraluyna kelsek, tәuel­siz­dik jyldary resmy esep boyynsha 753,4 myn, al búl esepten tys óz­digimen kelgenderdi qos­qanda 1 mln. qazaq qay­typ keldi degen pikir bar.

Qayta oralghandardyng basym kópshiligi Resey, Qy­tay, Mongholiya men Óz­bekstannan, al qal­ghandary Týrkimenstan, Au­ghanstan, Týrkiya, Iran jәne t.b. alys-jaqyn shetelderden kelgender. She­telderdegi qa­zaqtar sany da edәuir pikirtalas tudyryp keledi. Zertteushi G.Mendiqúlova 1997 jyly jariyalanghan enbe­ginde búrynghy Kenes oda­ghynyng 14 memleketinde jәne dýnie jýzining 25 elinde 4,5 mln. qazaq ómir sýredi, degen mәlimet ai­tady. Alayda búl oiyna negiz bolghan derekterdi kór­setpegen. Al 2000 jy­ly jariyalanghan M.Asyl­bekov pen V.Kozinanyng «Qa­zaqtar» degen enbeginde shetelderdegi qandas­tary­myz­dyng sany 3.211.208 adam dep kórsetilgen. Búl mәlimet QR Syrtqy ister ministrligi konsuldyq qyz­­met departamenti bas­qar­­masy­nyng bastyghy B.Se­yit­battalovtyng 2000 jylghy 20 sәuirdegi «Egemen Qazaqstan» gazetinde jariyalanghan maqalasyna sýienip berilgen. Saylau Batyr­shaúly 2004 jyldyng basynda shetelderdegi qazaqtar sany 5,2 mln. adamnan asyp týsedi, - degen boljam aitady. Osy pikir shyndyqqa jaqynyraq, - dep sanaymyz. Sebebi, qazaq­tardyng Dýniye­jýzilik qauymdastyghy jinaghan («Egemen Qazaqstangha» bergen) mәlimetteri boyynsha, 40 shetelderdegi qazaqtardyng sany 5 mln. 600 mynnan astam dep kórsetilgen. Onyng ishinde, jaqyn shetelderde - 3 mln. 137 myn; alys shetelderde 2 mln. 529 myng 800. Qazaqtar kóp shoghyrlanghan memleketter Qytay - 2.260 myn; Ózbekstan - 1.750 myn; Resey - 1.100 myn; Mongholiya - 150 myn; qalghandary: Týr­kiya - 15 myn; AQSh - 14 myn; Tәjikstan - 10 myn; Iran - 10 myn; Germaniya - 9 myng jәne t.s.s. 2000-2005 jyldar aralyghynda shetelderdegi qazaqtar­dyng sany 3,2 mln.-nan 5,6 mln.-gha deyin ósuin eki sebeppen týsindiruge bolar edi. Birinshiden, alghashqy kórsetilgen mәlimet to­lyq bolmay, 1,5 - 2mln.-day qazaq esepten tys qalyp qoyy mýmkin. Ekinshiden, osy 5-6 jyl ishinde edәuir tabighy ósim nәtiyjesinde qazaq­tar sany tez ósken de shyghar dep oilaymyz.

Respublika halqynyn, onyng ishinde qazaqtardyng aumaqtyq, yaghny aimaqtargha, auyl men qalalargha ornalasuynda dәstýrge ainalyp, qalyptasqan erekshelikter bar. Qazaqstan halqynyng jartysyna juyghy - 45-46%-y Ontýstik aimaqta (Almaty qalasy, Almaty, Jambyl, Ontýstik Qazaq­stan jәne Qyzylorda oblystary) ornalas­qan bolsa, respublika qazaqtarynyng da jartysyna juyghy, yaghny 49,8%-y osy ai­maqtarda túrady. Olardyng ýlesi Qyzyl­orda oblysynda 95,8%, Ontýstik Qazaqstan oblysynda 70,1%, Jambyl oblysynda - 69,0%, Almaty oblysynda - 64,2% jәne Almaty qalasynda - 50,1%. Búl jaghdaydyng tarihy qalyptasuy: birinshiden, aimaqtyng Reseyge baghynuy basqalardan 130 jylday kesh bolghandyghynan; ekinshiden, aimaq túrghyndary sany men qúramyna syrttan kelgen kóshi-qonnyng auqymy men әseri әlsiz bolghandyghynan; ýshinshiden, jergilikti últ ókilderinin, әsirese qazaq, ózbek, úighyr jәne basqa týrki tildes etnostardyng tabighy ósimi kelimsekterden basym ekendiginen jәne basqa tiyimdi jaghdaylardyng әseri kýshti boldy. Soltýstik aimaqta (Aqmola, Qostanay, Pavlodar jәne Soltýstik Qazaq­stan oblystary jәne Astana qalasy) respublika halqynyng 23,0%-y ornalasqan. Alayda múnda  qazaqtardyng sany da, ýlesi de, tәuelsizdik jaghdayynda edәuir óskenimen, әli de basymdylyqqa jete qoyghan joq. Respublika boyynsha aimaqtaghy qazaqtardyng ýlesi bar bolghany 16,9% bolsa, qazaqtar Aqmola men Pavlodar oblystarynda olar­daghy túrghyndardyng jartysyna da jetpeydi (tiyisinshe 44,6% jәne 45,7%), al Qostanay men Soltýstik Qazaqstan oblystarynda onan da tómen (tiyisinshe 35,6% jәne 33,7%, yaghny osy oblystardaghy túrghyndardyng ýshten biri ghana). Tek Astanada ghana qazaq­tardyng ýlesi 63,4%-gha jetti. Qazaqtardyng Ontýstik aimaqtan keyingi kóp shoghyrlanghan jeri - Batys Qazaqstan. Múnda qazaqtardyng 19,1%-y, yaghny besten birine juyghy meken etedi. Atyrau oblysyndaghy túrghyndardyng ishinde qazaqtar 91,3%, Manghystau obly­synda - 86,1%, Aqtóbe oblysynda - 77,9%, Batys Qazaqstan oblysynda - 70,9%. Res­publikanyng qalghan eki aimaghynda qazaq­tardyng ýlesi edәuir ósip keledi, 2009 jylghy mәlimetter boyynsha, Shyghys Qazaqstanda jartydan asyp týsti - 53,9%, al Ortalyq Qazaqstanda (Qaraghandy oblysy ) - 44,1%-gha jetti. Osy baghyttaghy damu әri qaray jalghasa berse, bolashaqta osy ýsh aimaq­tarda da qazaqtardyng ýlesi basym bolmaq.

Tәuelsizdik jaghdayynda qala men auyl túrghyndarynyng ózara salmaghy ózgeriske úshyrady. Qala túrghyndarynyng ýlesi 1989-2009 jyldar arasynda az da bolsa tómendegenimen (3,3%), olar búrynghysha respublika halqynyng jartysynan kóbi (53,4%) bolyp otyr. Al auyl túrghyndary 43,3% -dan 46,0% -gha jetti. Búl kórsetkish halyqtyng urbandandyru prosesining bayaulay bastaghanyn bayqatady. Qazaqstanda eng kýshti urbandalghan Qaraghandy (qala túrghyn­dary 77,0%), Pavlodar (67,9%) jәne Aqtóbe oblystary (61,1%) bolsa, auyl túrghyndary Almaty (76,0%), Soltýstik Qazaqstan (61,5%), Qyzylorda (60,8%) jәne Jambyl (60,5%) oblystarynda kóbirek bolyp otyr.

Degenmen, tәuelsizdik jyldary qazaqtar­dyng qalagha bet búrghanyn atap aitqan jón. Qazir eki qazaqtyng bireui - qala túrghyny. Qazaqtar Qyzylorda men Atyrau oblysta­ryndaghy qala túrghyndarynyng ishinde tiyisinshe 91,3% jәne 82,3%, al Manghystau obly­synda - 72,9%, Aqtóbe oblysynda - 62,2%, Ontýstik Qazaqstan oblysynda 61,6%, Jambyl oblysynda - 54,5%. Biraq basqa aimaq­tarda qazaqtar qala túrghyndary ishinde әli de az. Qostanay oblysynda bar bolghany 20,2%, Aqmola oblysynda - 28,5%, Pavlodar oblysynda -30,0%, Qaraghandy oblysynda - 30,7%, Shyghys Qazaqstan obly­synda - 33,1%. Batys Qazaqstan oblysynda da kóp emes - 39,6%. Elimizding eng ýlken eki qala­synda qazaqtar ýlesi edәuir ósip keledi: Qazir Astana túrghyndarynyng (639,3 myn) 63,4%(405,3 myny) qazaqtar.

Qazaqtar shoghyrlanghan Ontýstik jәne Batys aimaq qalalarynda olardyng ýlesi óse týsti. Qyzylordada 90,4%, Atyrauda - 82,9%, Aq­tóbede - 68,2% , Aqtauda - 64,4%, Tal­dyqorghanda - 64,2%, Tarazda - 59,1% ; jәne Shym­kentte - 48,4% boldy. Sonymen birge Semeyde 42,6%, Kókshetauda 50,9% Jezqaz­ghan­da - 62,1%, Qaraghandyda - 46,2%, Balqashta -58,8% gha jetti. Degenmen, slavyan halyqta­rynyng ókilderi men basqa orys tildi etnostar kóptep ornalasqan aimaq qalala­rynda jaghday asa ózgere qoyghan joq.

Túrghyndardyng jastyq qúramy da tabighy ósimge ýlken әser etetini belgili. Ádette halyq­tyng jastyq qúramy osy ósimge bayla­nysty ýsh týrge bólinedi. Birinshisi - progressivtik - túrghyndar arasynda bala­lar­dyng ýlesi kóp bolsa, tabighy ósimning kóptiginen halyq sany ósedi, ekinshisi - qa­lyptasqan (stasionarlyq) týri - balalar men eresek jastaghylar arasy birqalypty; búl jagh­dayda túrghyndar azaymaydy da, kóbeymeydi de. Ýshinshisi - regressivtik týri - 60 jas jә­ne onan ýlkenderding ýlesi 12% jәne odan joghary bolsa, túrghyndar sany azaya týsedi. Qazirgi jaghdayda Qazaqstan halqynyng 60 jastan asqandary 10,3%, onyng ishinde erleri - 7,8%, әielderi - 12,3%. Degenmen, 1990 jyldarmen salystyrghanda ( 9%) 60 jas­taghylar men odan ýlkenderding ýlesi 1,3%-gha ósken, yaghny halyqtyng «qartaya» bastaghany bayqalady. Búl kelensiz jaghdaygha orys, ukraiyn, belorustardyng osy jastaghy­lary kóp bolghany әser etedi.

Degenmen, qazaqtardyng әleumettik-de­mografiyalyq damuynda әli de kelensiz jaghdaylar kezdesetinin de aitqan jón. Tabighy ósim jaghynan qazaqtar basqa týrki-músylman etnostarynan әli de edәuir keyin qalyp keledi. Ózbek, úighyr, әzirbayjan, týrik, kýrd jәne basqa últ ókilderining tabighy ósimi qazaqtardan edәuir basym kelip, sany ósip, qúramy kýsheyde. Qazaqtardyng basym kópshiligi aimaqtardyng auyldy mekenderinde túratynyn eskersek, olardyng әleumettik jaghdayy óz dengeyinde emes ekendigin bayqaymyz. Qazaqtardyng bilim dengeyi de ózge últ ókilderinen әli de tómen. 1999 jylghy mәlimet boyynsha, 44 etnostyng ishinde qazaqtar jogharghy bilim dengeyi boyynsha - segizinshi orynda, ayaqtalmaghan jogharghy bilim dengeyi boyynsha - 19 - orynda, arnayy or­ta bilim boyynsha 28 - orynda, jalpy orta bilim boyynsha - 11 - orynda, negizinde or­ta bilim boyynsha - 37 - orynda, al bas­tauysh bilim boyynsha - 35 - orynda.

Qala túrghyndary, ónerkәsip, qúrylys jәne transport salalarynda qazaqtar ýlesi әli de tómen, óz dengeyinde emes. Ásirese, kәsiby júmysshy mamandar, injener-tehnikter arasynda últtyq kadrlardy kóptep tәrbiyeleu problemasy kýn tәrtibinde túrghan ózekti mәsele.

«Kósh jýre týzeledi» degen ata-baba­larymyzdan qalghan sóz bar. Tәuelsizdigimiz nyghaya týsip, әleumettik-ekonomikalyq jagh­dayy­myz jaqsarghan sayyn, halqymyz­dyn, onyng úiytqysy - qazaqtardyng sany ósip, qúra­my kýsheye týsetini barshamyzgha anyq jәne bolashaqtyng kepili. Búl ýshin respublikada ghylymgha negizdelgen әleumettik-demografiya­lyq jәne kóshi-qon sayasaty jýrgiziluge tiyis.

Mәlikaydar ASYLBEKOV, akademiyk, Sh.Uәlihanov atyndaghy Tarih jәne etnologiya institutynyng bas ghylymy qyzmetkeri,

Jәmila ASYLBEKOVA, әl-Faraby atyndaghy Qazaq últtyq uniyversiytetining dosenti, tarih ghylymdarynyng doktory.