Mәskeu nayzaghayday jyldam jenisti armandady, biraq úzaqqa sozylghan jeniliske úshyrady. Ukraina nyq túrdy, Batys birikti, Resey soghys shyrmauyna batyp, túnghiyqqa bet aldy. Endi әngime auany reseylik qaru-jaraqtyng jenisi turaly emes, Reseyding búl jolghy soghysta bergen bodauynyng salmaghyna auyp otyr.

Kremliding «sәtti shabuyl» turaly ýgit-nasihaty men tez jeniske jetudi armandaytyn kónildi habarlaryna qaramastan, kóptegen tanymal sarapshylar «búl jolghy soghysta Resey jenildi» dep senimmen aita bastady.

Olardyng arasynda Aughanstandaghy alpauyt derjavalardyng jenilisimen salystyra saraptama jasaytyn әigili amerikalyq sayasattanushy Djordj Fridman da bar. Ol: «Kenes Odaghy 1979-1989 jyldary Aughanstannyng edәuir bóligin iyemdendi, Kabuldy, joldar men iri qalalardy baqylap otyrdy, biraq aughan halqynyng qarsylyghyn syndyra almady.

Sonyng saldarynan Mәskeu ketuge mәjbýr boldy, artynda ondaghan myng tabyt qaldy jәne halyqaralyq bedelden aiyryldy. Keyinirek Amerika Qúrama Shtattar da osynday jeniliske úshyrady: tendesi joq resurstargha ie bola otyryp, olar da negizgi maqsatyna jete almay Aughanstandy tastap shyghyp ketti.

Resey de Ukrainada sol tarihy túzaqqa týsti. Ol territoriyanyng bir bóligin basyp aldy, sonda ózining әskery basqaruyn qúrdy, biraq eng bastysy – eldi ózine baghyndyru jәne onyng qoghamynyng qarsylyghyn júmsartugha qol jetkize almady.

Ukraina tendesi joq iykemdi bolyp shyqty: Ol memlekettiligin saqtap, әskerin nyghaytty, Batystan tendessiz qoldau alyp, imperiyalyq basqynshylyqqa qarsy kýresting simvolyna ainaldy.

Kremli nayzaghay operasiyasy men Kiyevting jaulap aluyna ýmit artqan jerde úzaqqa sozylghan azghyndau soghysy bastaldy, búl soghysta Resey shamasy jetetininen slde qayda kóp útylyp jatyr. Mәskeuding әskery jetistikteri ishinara jәne uaqytsha bolyp shyqty. Biraq onyng әskerleri algha jyljyghan jerde de eles qalalar, kýidirilgen jer jәne jergilikti halyqtyng óshpendiligi artynan birge eredi.

Resey Ukrainagha «miftik qauipten» azat etushi retinde kelip, әlem aldynda bir ghana strategiyalyq maqsatqa jete almaghan basqynshy retinde ketip qaldy. Kiyev tik túrdy, Ukraina memlekettiligi nyghaydy, NATO әlsiz bolyp kóringenmen, kerisinshe keneyip, jana mýshelerdi qabyldap, әskery әleuetin arttyrdy.

Jenilis tek maydanda ghana sezilmeydi. Resey ekonomikasy birte-birte barlyghy soghysqa baghynatyn soghys ekonomikasyna auysuda. Sanksiyalar ony jahandyq tehnologiyalar men investisiyalargha qol jetkizuden aiyrdy, milliondaghan azamattar júmyldyru men repressiyadan qashyp, elden ketti. Ziyatkerlik jәne adamy kapital joyylyp jatyr, damu perspektivalary joyyluda.

Resey óz energiyasyn bolashaqqa emes, ótkenning elesin saqtaugha júmsaytyn memleketke ainalyp barady. Tarihy jenilis maydan shebimen nemese basyp alynghan auyldardyng sanymen ólshenbeydi. Ol basqa nәrsede kórinedi: mýmkin bolatyn taktikalyq jenisterding ózi jalpy kórinisti ózgertpeytindiginde.

Resey jaugha óz erkin tana almady, Ukrainany oqshaulay almady, halyqaralyq tәrtipti ózgerte almady. Aughanstandaghyday, alpauyt derjavanyng aldynda abyroysyz nәtiyjege aparatyn jol ghana qaldy, mәsele onyng qanday týrde bolatynynda ghana.

Resey jeniliske úshyrady, óitkeni ol soghysqa naqty shyndyqqa janaspaytyn maqsattarmen jәne qate eseptermen kirdi. Ol kýshin kórsetkisi keldi, biraq әlsiz ekenin әshkereledi. Ol Ukrainany syndyrghysy keldi, biraq ony biriktirdi.

Batysty ekige jarghysy keldi, biraq júdyryqtay júmyldyrdy. Ol óz imperiyasyn qaytaryp alghysy keldi, biraq bolashaghynan aiyryldy. Býginde Resey jenis ýshin emes, jeniliske keshigu ýshin kýresude.

Soghystyng әrbir jana kýni adam shyghynyn kóbeytip, ekonomikany kýiretip, әlemdik qúrmetten júrday ete beredi. Búl endi aumaq ýshin shayqas emes – búl óz mifterine sengen memleketting ózin-ózi birtindep jongy.

Tarihta qansha auyl, qansha qalany basyp alghanynyz manyzdy emes. Eng bastysy, soghystyng maqsattary oryndalmady, onyng baghasy óte joghary boldy. Ukraina berik túrghan sәtte Resey jenildi. Odan keyingi oqighalardyng bәri jay ghana sozylghan agoniya» deydi.

Kerimsal Júbatqanov, tarih ghylymdarynyng kandidaty, S. Seyfullin atyndaghy Qazaq agrotehnikalyq zertteu uniyversiytetining dosenti

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