Koronavirus infeksiyasy aldymen Qytaygha әser etip, qazir әlemning kóptegen basqa aimaqtaryna taralyp, pandemiya ayaqtalghannan keyin tez ekonomikalyq qúldyrau men aiqyn emes baghyttarymen sipattalatyn shyndyqtyng jana formatyn qúrady.

Bloomberg әlemdik ekonomika koronavirusqa baylanysty 2,7 trln dollargha deyin joghaltuy mýmkin dep esepteydi. Qytay ekonomikasynyng tolyq búghattaluy óndiris oryndarynyng toqtap qaluyna, shiykizat pen dayyn ónimdi jetkizuding búzyluyna әkeldi. Búl óz kezeginde qazir túraqsyzdyq aimaghyndaghy qor naryqtaryna әser etti.

Koronavirustyng jetkizilim tizbegine әseri turaly jetkizudi basqaru institutynyng (ISM) zertteuine sәikes, kompaniyalardyng 75%-y koronavirusqa baylanysty kólik shekteulerine baylanysty keybir quattylyqtarda jetkizilim tizbegindegi aqaular turaly habarlaydy jәne 80%-dan astamy olardyng úiymy COVID-19 saldarynan keybir saldargha úshyraydy dep sanaydy.

Sondyqtan ónirlik óndiris tizbegin damytudyng jәne shekara many elderining yntymaqtastyghyn kýsheytuding manyzy erekshe ósti. Sauda-sattyqty qayta bastaugha jәne ekonomikalyq prosesterdi qalpyna keltiruge jalpy qyzyghushylyq jaghdayynda ekonomikalyq saldarmen kýresu әldeqayda onay.

Osyghan baylanysty Qytay epiydemiyadan keyin is jýzinde qalpyna keldi jәne basqa elderde qajetti tauarlardy óndiru aghynyn ornatty. Mysaly, milliondaghan mektep oqushylarynyng qashyqtan bilim aluyn qamtamasyz etu ýshin noutbukter men kompiuterler osynday asa manyzdy tauargha ainaldy.

Qazaqstan ýshin óz jetkizilimderi túrghysynan Qytay ónerkәsibin qalpyna keltiru manyzdy. Óitkeni, qytay tek satushy ghana emes, sonymen qatar tabighy resurstardyn, әsirese múnay men gazdyng keng jelisining tútynushysy retinde de Ortalyq Aziyanyng iri ekonomikalyq seriktesi bolyp tabylady.

Mysaly, karantindik sharalargha baylanysty Qytay ekonomikasynyng ósuin toqtatu múnaygha súranystyng tómendeuine әkeldi jәne OPEK+ kóshbasshylary kelise almaghannan keyin múnay baghasy aitarlyqtay tómendedi. Búl Qazaqstan ekonomikasyna birden әser etti, onda tenge dollargha qatysty lezde devalivasiyalandy.

S&P halyqaralyq reyting agenttigining derekteri boyynsha múnay-gaz sektorynyng bireui ghana respublika JIÓ-ning shamamen 15%-yn qúraydy jәne budjetke týsetin barlyq týsimderding shamamen 40%-yn qamtamasyz etedi. Búl rette Qazaqstannyng 30 iri salyq tóleushisining 18-in múnay jәne gaz óndirumen ainalysatyn kompaniyalar qúraydy. 2019 jyly olar barlyq tólemderdi 4,3 trln tengeden astam qamtamasyz etti.

Jalpy, biyl әlemdik ekonomika eleuli resessiyany boljap otyr. Soghan qaramastan, Qytay ekonomikasy 1,6% ósu boljamyn saqtaydy, yaghny Qytay Ortalyq Aziyadan energiya men paydaly qazbalardy jetkizudi qajet etedi. Sonymen qatar, 2013 jyly Astanada jariyalanghan «Bir beldeu–Bir jol» bastamasy ayasynda Qytay barlyq eldermen, al Euraziyalyq odaq elderining erekshelikterimen yntymaqtastyqtyng jana modelin úsynady. Atap aitqanda, Beyjing birlesken óndiris infraqúrylymy men jobalaryn damytugha auqymdy investisiya salady.

INVESTISIYaLAR ÝShIN KÝRES

Ayta ketu kerek, keyinnen Qytaydyng «Bir beldeu – Bir jol» jahandyq bastamasynyng bir bóligine ainalghan «Jibek jolynyng ekonomikalyq beldeui» býkil әlemde zor ynta-jigermen qabyldandy. Pandemiya nәtiyjesinde ekonomikalyq daghdarys kezinde jahandyq auqymda investisiyalaugha qyzyghushylyq pen mýmkindikteri bar oiynshylardyng azdyghyna baylanysty Qytay investisiyalaryna degen qyzyghushylyq artyp keledi.

Qytay infraqúrylymdy damytu arqyly ekonomikalyq daghdarysty enseruding jana modelin úsynady. Sonymen qatar, eski әlem tarapynan investisiya salghysy kelmegen jaghdayda, qytay núsqasy әsirese qyzyqty, óitkeni Pekin ózining jobasyna, ekonomikalyq ósuding úzaq jyldarynda jinaqtalghan rezervterge investisiya salugha dayyn.

Euraziya qúrlyghy «Bir beldeu – Bir jol» baghdarlamasy ýshin eng perspektivaly baghyttarynyng biri bolyp tabylady jәne Euraziya elderi ózderining kólik infraqúrylymy men ekonomikalyq damuyna orasan zor qarajat pen tehnologiyalardy tartu әleuetin lezde baghalap, shyn mәninde bәsekelestikke týsti. Atap aitqanda, Resey osy baghyt boyynsha sәtti tasymaldaudyng úzaq tarihyn kórsete otyryp, ózining Transsib jobasyn algha jyljyta bastady. Mongholiya óz núsqasyn úsyndy, atap aitqanda, osy dala eli arqyly tújyrymdamalyq jana marshrut qúru núsqasy. Qyrghyzstan sonday-aq bolashaq jahandyq qúrlyq tasymaldarynyng kólik habyna ainalugha tyrysuda.

Alayda, «Jibek jolynyng ekonomikalyq beldeui» Qazaqstanda aitarlyqtay jetistikke jetti. Búl jerde Chjunnanihaydan kelgen strategter ghana emes, yntymaqtastyq jyldary Aspan asty elindegi әriptesterimen júmys isteude ýlken tәjiriybe jinaqtaghan qazaqstandyq diplomattardyng da enbegi zor. Sondyqtan da, Qazaqstan «Bir beldeu – Bir jol» bastamasy ayasynda investisiya tartu boyynsha rekordshy el boldy.

Osylaysha, Tóragha Sy Szinipinning alghashqy sapary barysynda, JJEB baghdarlamasy jariyalanghan kezde qol qoyylghan baylanystardyng jalpy somasy shamamen $30 mlrd. qúrady, jana baghyttardy damytudyng manyzdy oqighasy 2012 jylghy jeltoqsannyng sonynda Qazaqstan men Qytay arasyndaghy «Qorghas-Jetigen» temirjol shekaralyq ótkelining ashyluy boldy. Búl jelining qazaqstandyq aimaqtaghy úzyndyghy 293 shaqyrym, búl Qytaydan Qazaqstannyng ontýstik ónirleri men Ortalyq Aziya elderine deyingi qashyqtyqty 550 shaqyrymgha qysqartugha mýmkindik berdi. Jelining jyldyq jýk ainalymy 2020 jylgha qaray 25 mln tonnagha deyin jetkiziledi dep boljanuda.

Sonday-aq, QHR qúrylys industriyasy jәne auylsharuashylyq óndeu salasyndaghy óndiristik kәsiporyndardy investisiyalaugha mýddeli. «Biz Qazaqstan aumaghynda shyny, sement óndiru jәne auyl sharuashylyghy ónimderin qayta óndeu zauyttaryn qúrugha dayynbyz, búl «Núrly jol» baghdarlamasynyng tújyrymdamasymen ýndes», - dep birneshe ret Qytay premier-ministri Ly Kesyan atap ótti. Sonymen qatar, qytaylyq investorlardy toqyma, himiya, metallurgiya, mashina jasau, múnay himiyasy, qúrylys materialdary, tau-ken jobalary men energetika qyzyqtyrady.

Qytaydyng investisiyalyq belsendiligining serpini Euraziyalyq odaqtaghy qytay kapitaly ýshin neghúrlym tartymdy Qazaqstan bolyp tabylatynyn kórsetip otyrghanyn atap ótken jón. Osylaysha, Qytaydan Euraziyalyq odaq elderine jinalghan tikeley sheteldik investisiyalar (TShI) býkil somanyng 91,5%- y Qazaqstangha tiyesili.

Qazaqstannyng qoghamdyq pikirinde Qytaymen yntymaqtastyqty damytudyng týrli nýkteleri bar. Atap aitqanda, Qytay investisiyalaryn tartu boyynsha. Alayda, ekonomikalyq daghdarys jaghdayynda Qytaydan investisiyalar men tehnologiyalardan bas tartu búl aghyndardyng barlyghy kórshi elderge nemese ónirlerge baghyttaluyna alyp kelui mýmkin. Resey, Qyrghyzstan, Mongholiyadan basqa, Qytaydyng batys provinsiyalary da aimaqqa investisiya salu ýshin kýresude, olar qosymsha qarjylyq quat, iri ónerkәsiptik jәne tehnologiyalyq jobalardy qajet etedi.

Sondyqtan, Qytaydyng ózinde ónirlik elitalar dengeyinde de osy qarajattyng barlyghyn Qazaqstangha emes, mysaly, bizben shektesetin Shynjan-Úighyr avtonomiyalyq audanyna jiberu kerek degen pikirler bar. Osy túrghydan alghanda, qazaqstandyq diplomatiya «eki ottyng arasynda» oinaugha, elge qajetti qarjy aghynyn arttyrugha, sheteldik bәsekelesterdi ainalyp ótip, ishki qoghamdyq pikirdi aqparattandyru boyynsha belsendi júmys isteuge tura keledi.

BILIM

Qazaqstan-Qytay yntymaqtastyghynyng manyzdy aspektilerining biri bilim beru salasy bolyp tabylady. Epiydemiya kezindegi baylanystardyng búzyluy Qytaydaghy kóptegen jastargha әser etti.

Qytaydaghy qazaqstandyq studentterding sany - elding jalpy halqyn eskere otyryp qaraghanda óte kóp. Búl kórsetkish songhy jyldary túraqty týrde 10 mynnan astam adamgha tiyesili. Salystyru ýshin, jalpy halqy QR-gha qaraghanda 10 ese kóp Reseyden kelgen studentter Qytayda 20 myngha juyq oqidy. Qazaqstan 2018 jyly 10 orynda boldy, qytay tarapynyng esepteui boyynsha qazaqstandyq studentterding sany 11784 adamdy qúrady.

Qytay Bilim ministrligining derekteri negizinde QR-dan QHR-gha studentter sany boyynsha statistika kelesidey (4-suretti qaranyz).

QHR-da oqityn qazaqstandyq studentter sany (2010-2018 jj.)

Qytayda joghary bilim aludyng tartymdylyghy qazaqstandyqtar ýshin mynaday faktorlargha negizdelgen:

• Konfusiy instituttary men «Bir beldeu – bir jol» baghyty boyynsha stiypendiyalyq baghdarlamalardyng sanynyng kóptigi. Atap aitqanda, ýkimettik stiypendiyalardyng bakalavriat, magistratura, doktorantura jәne qytay tilining jyldyq kurstaryna arnalghan baghdarlamalary.
• Qarjylyq salymdar Europa, AQSh jәne damyghan Aziya elderining joghary oqu oryndarynda oqyghangha qaraghanda tómen, sonday-aq Qazaqstannyng bedeldi joghary oqu oryndaryna qaraghanda tómen;
• Oqugha týsu ýshin ÚBT jәne KT tapsyru talap etilmeydi, búl mýmkin nәtiyjelerge senimdi emes kóptegen oqushylar ýshin tartymdylyqty arttyrady;
• Qytaydyng aumaqtyq jaqyndyghy men qauipsizdigi uniyversiytetter aumaghynda óte ynghayly ómir sýru jaghdayymen ýilesedi.

Almaty qalasynyng oqushylary arasynan respondentter arasynda jýrgizilgen saualnama olardyng oqu ornynda qytay tilinen sabaq berse, onda 68%-y oghan barar edi, 16%-y tandaudyng múghalimning sapasyna tәueldiligi turaly mәlimdedi jәne tek 11%-y «joq» dep jauap berdi. Qytay tilin oqyp jatqan respondentterge keletin bolsaq, olardyng 48%-y QHR-da oqudy josparlap otyr, al 47%-y Qytay men qytay tili qyzyqtyrady. Osylaysha, bilim beru salasy Qazaqstan men Qytay yntymaqtastyghynyng keleshegi zor flagmanynyng biri bolyp tabylady.

YNTYMAQTASTYQ JOBALARY

Euraziyalyq Odaq elderining ishinde Qazaqstan býginde Qytaydyng janartylghan kólik infraqúrylymyn qalyptastyrugha qatysuy jónindegi uaghdalastyqtarda barynsha ilgeri jyljydy.

Songhy jyldary birneshe iri qazaqstan-qytay jobalary iske qosyldy. Olardyng qatarynda Altynkól-Qorghas jana temir jol ótpesi, Sarybúlaq - Ziymúnay jәne Bozoy - Shymkent gaz qúbyrlary, Aqtau bitum zauyty, súiyq otyn alatyn kómirdi keshendi qayta óndeu jobasy, kaliy tynaytqyshtaryn óndiru sekildi jobalar bar.

Sonday-aq, Qytay týrli óndiristerdi qúrugha investisiya salugha dayyn ekenin bildirdi. Búl jaghdayda tizbening maghynasy joq, tek diapazonnyng óte keng ekenin atap ótemiz: elektr energetikasynan bastap mayly daqyldardy óndeuge deyin jәne múnay-gaz jabdyqtaryn óndiruden bastap avtomobilider óndirisine deyin.

Býgingi tanda Qazaqstanda óndiris salasynda jalpy somasy 26 mlrd. dollar bolatyn 52 joba jýzege asyryluda. Jobalardyng kópshiliginde qazaqstandyq tarap majoritarlyq investor bolyp tabylady. Barlyq jobalardy iske asyru shamamen 15 myng júmys ornyn qúrugha mýmkindik beredi, onda júmyskerlerding keminde 80%-y Qazaqstan azamattary bolady dep boljanuda.

Industriyalyq-investisiyalyq yntymaqtastyqtyng osy baghdarlamasy shenberindegi iri kәsiporyndar:

Quaty jylyna 150 myng tonna «Asia Steel Pipes Corp» JShS kompaniyasynyng japsarsyz qúbyrlar shygharatyn zauyty;

Quattylyghy jylyna 500 myng tonna polipropiylen bolatyn integrasiyalanghan gaz-himiya keshenin salu.

Soltýstik Qazaqstan oblysynda «JAC» markaly qytaylyq avtomobiliderdi iri-toraptyq qúrastyru jýzege asyryldy.

«Rifa Holding Group» jәne «Evraziya agroholding» kompaniyalary Shyghys Qazaqstan oblysynda (ShQO) jyldyq quaty 17 myng tonna qoy eti men siyr etin óndiretin et kombinatyn saludy josparlap otyr. Aldyn ala josparlar boyynsha kombinat óndiretin ónimning shamamen 80%-y QHR-gha eksportqa jiberiletin bolady. Jobanyng jalpy qúny 7,9 mlrd tengege baghalanyp otyr, al jobadaghy qytaylyq investorlardyng ýlesi 49%-dy qúraydy.

«Qorghas» shekara many yntymaqtastyghynyng halyqaralyq ortalyghyn jәne onyng infraqúrylymyn damytu.

Qytaymen shekarada «Dostyq» industriyalyq-servistik aimaghyn damytu.

Qytaylyq «AIJIU» ónerkәsiptik toby men «Total Impex» JShS-ning Soltýstik Qazaqstan oblysynda (SQO) mayly jәne dәndi daqyldardy tereng óndeu boyynsha kәsiporyn salu boyynsha yntymaqtastyghy.

«COFCO» jәne «Evraziya agroholding» kompaniyalary arasyndaghy ósimdik sharuashylyghyndaghy joba Qyzylorda jәne Batys Qazaqstan oblystary men ShQO aumaghynda qyzanaq ósiru jәne olardy tomat pastasyna qayta óndeu jónindegi quattardy qamtityn bolady. Jobanyng qúny 80 mln. dollargha baghalanady.

Úzyndyghy 988 km «Jezqazghan – Beyneu» temirjol jelisin salu jónindegi joba «Dostyq» jәne «Altynkól» stansiyalarynan Aqtau teniz portyna tranzittik tasymaldau qashyqtyghyn 1 200 shaqyrymgha deyin qysqartugha mýmkindik beredi.

Óz kezeginde, Qazaqstan Ekibastúzdan ShÚAA-daghy Hamy qosalqy stansiyasyna deyin túraqty toktyng joghary jelisin salu arqyly Qytaygha elektr energiyasyn jetkizudi úsyndy. Búl joba Qytaygha shamamen 6 GVt jiberuge mýmkindik beredi.

*****

Pandemiya ayaqtalghannan keyin Qazaqstan men Qytaydyng ekonomikalyq qarym-qatynasy qalpyna keledi, óitkeni basqa balama joq jәne tabighy sipatqa iye. Birlesken jobalardyng sany eki eldi birlesken biznes-baylanystardy qarqyndatugha jәne biznes ýshin jana mýmkindikter jasaugha iytermeleydi.

«Núrly Jol» men «Bir beldeu jәne jol» yntymaqtastyghynyng negizgi iydeyasy, atap aitqanda, kólikting aluan týrleri – avtomobili, temir jol, qúbyr jәne teniz dәlizderin salu adam aghynyn shekteu jaghdayynda jetildiru týrinde jana serpin men syn-tegeuringe ie bolghanyn atap ótken jón. Yaghni, prosesterdi avtomattandyru jәne ýzdiksiz trafikti qamtamasyz etu sapasyn arttyru róli jogharylady.

Qazirgi uaqytta EEA-nyng eng basty jetistigi - Birynghay keden-qoldanystaghy jәne damyp kele jatqan integrasiyalyq jobanyng birqatar artyqshylyqtarymen tolyqtyrylady (jalpy fito-sanitarlyq normalar jәne t.b.). Búl qúraldar odaq ishinde jәne onyng shekaralarynda shekaralyq sauda ýshin orasan zor mýmkindikter jasay alady. Býgingi tanda Qazaqstan Euraziyalyq odaqtaghy Jana Jibek jolynyng negizgi jolserigi bola otyryp, «Bir beldeu – Bir jol» baghdarlamasy boyynsha kapital tartu boyynsha ózining barlyq mýmkindikterin barynsha paydalanuda.

Tatiyana Kaukenova, 

Sayasattanushy, f.gh.k. Qytaytanu ortalyghynyng mamany

Abai.kz