Ukraina – songhy kezde әlemdik geosayasattyng ótine, NATO  men Reseyding aqyrghy beldeser arenasyna ainaluda. 

Ukrainagha Kremliden keler qater 2014 jyly Reseyshil preziydent quylyp, ornyna Batysshyl biylik kelgen song bastalghan-dy. Putin biyligi Ukrainanyng shyghysyndaghy orys diosporasy shoghyrlanghan aimaqtardaghy separatisterdi qoldap, ishki soghysty tútandyrdyryp qana qoymay, Qyrymdy anneksiyalap alghany belgili. Osylaysha, Ukraina jerindegi tynyshtyq búzyldy. Soghysta qaza bolghandar sany 15 myngha jetken. Sodan beri  qaysar da tabandy ukraindyqtar Kremliden jerinip, Europa odaghynyng tolyqqandy mýshesi bolugha talpynyp keledi. Endigi jerde Kiyev ýshin NATO-nyng resmy mýshesi bolu armany – Resey qaterinen qútyludyng jalghyz jolyna ainaldy.

Putinning kózdegeni

Kenes Odaghynyng ydyrauy  NATO  men  Varshava arasyndaghy eki polyarly teke-tireske nýkte qoydy.    1991 jyldan son, ózin Kenes Odaghynyng múrageri sanaghan Reseyding Batyspen tiresuge ekonomikalyq mýmkindigi bolmady. Preziydent Elisinning tabighaty imperlik ambisiyadan góri, demokratiyanyng auylyna jaqyndyghyn kórsetti. 2000 jyly Elisin Kremli manyndaghy elitalyq imperlik ústanymdaghy kýshterding qalauymen (qysymymen) el tizginin Putinge tabystaldy. 2001 jyly Kremli qojayyny AQSh-tyng «terrorgha» qarsy strategiyalyq sayasatyn qolday ketti de, osy nauqannyng kómegimen elindegi, әsirese Kavkaz aimaghyndaghy últtyq ambisiyasy kýshti azshylyq músylmandardy janyshtap, ózining yrqyna kóndirip ýlgerdi. Ile-shala, el ishindegi balamaly kózqarastaghy túlghalardy alastap, opozisiyalyq kýshterdi túnshyqtyrdy. Esesine, orystyn  shovinistik kónil-kýiin janghyrtyp, qoldap otyrdy. Osy arqyly ishki qoldaushylaryn arttyryp, saylau sayyn ýlken kórsetkishpen jeniske jetip keledi.

Shiykizatqa – múnay men gazgha sýiengen Resey ýshin onyng әlemdik naryqtaghy baghasynyng ósui, Putinning tәbetin arttyryp, ambisiyasyn kýsheytti.  Endi ol syrttaghy yqpalyn kýsheytudi kózdedi.  Siriyagha әsker shygharyp, Asad biyligin saqtap qalu arqyly úpay jinady. 2008 jyly Gruziyagha basyp kirip, Ontýstik Osetiyany bólip alyp, ózine qaratty. Gruzinderding bar kinәsi – demokratiya jolyn tandap, Batysqa jaqyndaghandyghy edi. 2014 jyly Ukrainnyng shyghys aimaghyndaghy orys diasporalarynyng qoltyghyna su býrkip, separatis kýshterge qoldau bildirip, sonynda ol eldi ishki soghysqa jetkizdi. Ile-shala Ukrainanyng Qyrym aralyn anneksiyalap aldy. Ukraindyqtardyng da bar kinәsi óz jolyn ózi tandap, Europagha jaqyndap, NATO-gha mýshelikke talpynuy ekeni anyq. Putiyn  olardy osy «satqyndyqtary»  ýshin jazalady deuge bolady.

Búl jolghy Putinning týp maqsaty Ukraiyngha jappay basyp kiru bolmasa da, AQSh pen Europanyng tamyryn basyp kórudi kózdese kerek. Preziydent kishi Bush túsynan bastap, Obama, Tramp kezinde de AQSh biyligi Putinning erkeligine kóz júma qarap, shiylenisti tústan ainalyp ótip otyrdy. Ásirese, Tramp AQSh-tyng basty jauyn Qytay dep sanaghanda Putinning arqasy bir kenip qalghanday bolghan edi. Bayden biylikke kelgeli Reseydi AQSh-tyng basty qateri sanauyn dogharar emes. Búl Resey mýdesine kedergi keltirip, Putinning tynysyn taryltty. AQSh-tyng qysymymen «Soltýstyk aghyn-2» gaz qúbyrynyng Germeniyamen jalghanuy kesheuildeude. Búl jobanyng Resey ýshin asa manyzdy ekeni barshagha ayan. «Soltýstik aghyn-2» jobasy Resey ekonomikasy men Putin biyligining myzghymastyghy ýshin tipten ózekti edi. AQSh pen NATO-nyng strategiyalyq sayasaty Putinning kóksegen armanyn tas-talqan eter týri bar. Kremli ýshin endigi tóner eng ýlken qater – NATO-dan bolary belgili.

2014 jyly ózi shauyp alghan Ukrainanyng ansary әli de Batys. Mәskeuden әbden jeringen. Endi keri qaytar týri joq. «Shet ýy kóshse, ortadaghy ýy shet bolady» degendey, Ukraina NATO-gha mýshelikke qabyldanar bolsa, Reseyge qater birden tónbek. Putinning alandaytyn jeri, mine, osy tús. Osy qaterding aldyn alu maqsatynda qazirgi qadamgha baryp, donaybat kórsetip túrsa kerek. Dittegeni Ukrainany tәubesine keltirip, NATO-ny sabasyna týsirip, AQSh-ty oilandyrudy kózdeytin bolsa kerek. Óitkeni, soghystyng Reseyge tiyimsiz ekeni, basqynshylyqty aqtaugha kelmeytini anyq. Onyng ýstine, 1996 jyly Ukrainany yadrolyq qarusyzdandyryp, onyng bolashaq qauipsizdigine kepildik bergen bestikting biri – osy Resey bolatyn.

Putinning NATO men AQSh-qa qoyyp otyrghan talaptary da tym artyq kórinedi. Reseyding qoyyp otyrghan talaby boyynsha, NATO Ukrainany mýshelikke qabyldamauy kerek; NATO, Reseymen shekaralasatyn elderlegi әskerin alyp ketui kerek;  NATO 1997 jylghy  búrynghy shekarasyna sheginui kerek. Yaghni, Polisha, Latviya, Litva qatarly 12 elden irgesin aulaqqa saluy tiyis. Sonday-aq, Polisha men Rumyniya elderinde ornalasqan zymyrandaryn әketui kerek. Búdan tys, AQSh Reseymen yadrolyq qarularyn óz territoriyasynan tys jerge ornalastyrmau turaly shart jasasuy kerek.  AQSh bastaghan NATO elderi Reseyling qauipsizdigine jazbasha kepildik berui tiyis eken. Múny oryndatu ýshin emes, saudalasu ýshin qoyyp otyrghan sharttar dep týsingen jón siyaqty.  Kezinde Yalta kelisimi  arqyly Kenes Odaghy (jәne AQSh, Britaniya) Europany bóliske salyp, Shyghys Europagha qol jetkizgen-di. Putin sol elesti ansaytyn nemese sonday bir arman jeteginde jýrgen kórinedi.  Ókinishine oray, Putin qoyghan ulitimatumge AQSh-tyn  kóp irkilmey  jauap bergeni belgili boldy.

Aq Ýi: «Eshkim de NATO-nyng ashyq sayasatyn ózgerte almaydy. Reseyding búl proseske aralasu qúqyghy joq. Ukraina tәuelsiz el. Ol tandaudy ózi jasauy kerek!»  dep, qysqa qayyrypty.

Resey әskeri Ukrain shekarasy manynda toptalyp jattyghu ótkizgeli de aigha juyqtady. Putin qolynda bar qaru-jaraghyn sonda shoghyrlandyrghan. Jappay ýlken soghys bola ma, joq, tek Ukrainanyng shyghys aimaqtaryn ghana qamty ma? Onyng jauaby tek Putinge ghana mәlim kórinedi. AQSh bastaghan NATO elderi Ukrainagha әsker jibermegenimen, qaru-jaraq, tehnika,  qarjy, medisinalyq kómek jәne jattyqtyrushy men kenesshi jaghynan barlyq kómekti jasaugha dayar ekenin jetkizdi. Olar qazirshe NATO-gha mýshe elderge qaruly kýshterin toptaumen shektelude. AQSh-tyng qaru-jaraq kómegi  Kiyevke jetkeni habarlandy. Britaniya, Kanada, Ispaniya, Fransiya elderinen de kómek tollassyz baruda.  NATO elderining soghys kemeleri  Jerorta tenizinde jattyghu jýrgizude. Ózin qatang da qaytpas kóshbasshy sanatugha daghdylanghan Putin osy joly oiyndy tym ýlken bastap jiberip, shegine almay túruy da mýmkin.

Putin qaqpangha týsti

Ukraindyqtardasoghystan basqa tandau da qalmaghan. AQSh bastaghan Batys elderi Reseyding taghdyryna  (Ukrain jerinde) bәs tikkeni seziledi.  Búl jolghy bolar yqtimal soghys NATO-nyng da synalar túsy. Reseyding Ukrainagha jasar kez-kelgen agressiyasy ýshin Bayden ýkimeti  Reseyge  búryn-sondy bolmaghan qatang sanksiya jasalatyny turaly  qatang eskertu de jasaghan.

Sanksiya formasy Reseyding bank jýiesin halqaralyq Swift tólem jýiesinnen ýzip tastau;  Germaniyamen tútasatyn «Soltýstik aghyn-2» gaz qúbyry jobasyna tosqauyl qoi;  Bankterde Resey rubliine shetel valutasyn aiyrbastaudy shekteu; tipti Putinning ózine de sanksiya saludy oilastyrmaq. Putinde sheginer jol da qalmay bara jatqangha úqsaydy. Dese de diplomatiyalyq kelissózder әli ýzilgen emes. Endi Putinge sheginer  joldyng ózi qymbatqa týsui mýmkin. Týbi, búl tires Resey ýshin apatqa ainaluy da yqtimal. Bәlkim, búl AQSh-tyng Putinge qúrghan qaqpany bolsashy!  Putindi soghysqa mәjbýr etu arqyly, Reseydi azdyryp-tozdyru arqyly kýiretu amaly boluy da ghajap emes...

Qytaydyng ambisiyasy

Putinning senip otyrghan jalghyz odaqtasy – Qytay.  2008 jylghy Gruziya men 2014 jylghy Ukraiyngha jasaghanagressiyasynan beri Batys Reseyge sanksiya salumen keledi. Putin búl sanksiyanyng saldaryn Qytaygha satylghan mol shiykizat esebinen enserip otyr. 2022 jyldyng 4 aqpanynda Pekinde jasaghan Resey-Qytay «birlesken mәlimdemesi» Putinning NATO aldyndaghy salmaghyn sәl de bolsa arttyryp, alda bolatyn kelissózderde óz paydasyn bereri anyq. Osy jolghy kezdesude  Putin men Sy tóragha arasyndaghy qol qoyghan jana kelisim ishinde salmaqtysy – Reseyding Qiyr Shyghysynan jylyna Qytaygha 10 mlrd tekshe metr gaz  ben  Qazaqstan arqyly shiyki múnay jetkizu kelisimi deuge bolady. Ári jetkiziletin jalpy qúny 120-250 mlrd dollar delingen gazdyng esebin rubli ne yuani emes, euromen esep aiyrysugha kelisim jasaghanyna qaraghanda, Mәskeu men Pekinning birlesip  AQSh-qa qarsy túrmaq sayasy odaghynyng da bayandy boluy ekitalay kórinedi. Eger Putin Ukraiyngha soghys  ashar bolsa, AQSh, Britaniya bastaghan azuly elder Reseyge salynar sanksiya saldary tym auyr bolatynyn eskertude. Reseyge qatang sanksiya jariyalanghan jaghdayda, Reseymen istestik jasaghan kez-kelgen Qytay kompaniyasyna da qatang sanksiya salynatynyn  Aq Ýy ókili ashyq aitty. Býginde Batys kýshteri men  Japoniya, Australiya, Ýndistan siyaqty jana odaq jәne Australiya, Britaniya, AQSh –tyq AUKUS anglo-saksondyq  úiymdar  Qytaydyng Shyghysy men Ontýstik tenizde jәne Ýndi-Qytay  shekarasynda bolatyn yqtimal qaqtyghysqa jauap beruge qauqarly deuge negiz bar. Olardyng kózdegen  maqsaty -  Qytaydyng asqynghan agressiyalyq ambisiyasyn basyp, tynysyn taryltu.  Resey Ukrainagha soghys ashqan jaghdayda, Qytay da Tayvanigha basyp kirudi josparlap otyr deushiler de bar. Onday basyp kiru bola qalghan jaghdayda, búl soghys әlemdik sipatqa ainaluy yqtimal.

Sóz joq, AQSh  bir uaqytta eki, tipti ýsh baghytta soghysugha qauqarly.  Búl soghys oty tútansa, Qytay men Resey býgingi órkeniyet әlemining basty dúshpanyna ainalyp shygha keleri anyq. Zardaby Mәskeu men Pekin ýshin auyr soghary anyq.

Ukraina kriziysi ýlken soghysqa ainaluy ekitalay. Putinge  soghys ashu ýshin, senimsiz bolsa da bir  ilik-syltau izdep tabuy kerek. Áriyne «orys әlemi» úrany ayasynda orys diasprolaryn qorghaudy syltau etui mýmkin. Batys aqparaty boyynsha, Kremli Ukrainanyng shyghys oblystaryndaghy Ukrain azamattaryna (orys diasporalaryna) 3,5 mln Resey pasportyn taratqan kórinedi. Búl Putinning «óz azamattaryn qorghau» syltauy ýshin kerekti kóne tәsili. Putinning armany tym auqymdy. Reseyding yqpal aimaghyn, Euraziya qúrlyghynyng soltýstik jiyegin Shyghys europadan bastap, Orta Aziyany uysynda ústap, Pәkistandi Qytay arqyly kóktey ótip, Ýndistanmen seriktesip,  Ýndi múhityna  shyghu. Ýndistan men Qytaydy negizgi naryq etip, Ýndi-Tynyq múhitymen jalghasqan Úly Euraziya qúrlyghynyng qojasy bolu. Sóitip, jarty әlemning qojalyghyna qol jetkizu. Býginde osy jobasynyng sayasy negizderi qalanuda.

Ukrain halqynyng tandauy

Óz taghdyryna tandau jasau – tәuelsiz elding haqysy. Egemendikting 30 jylynda ukraindyqtar  ekonomikalyq jetistikke jete qoymaghanymen, sayasy progressterdi baghyndyrdy. Demokratiya nyshandary qalyptasty.  «Batysshyldar» men «reseyshilder» arasyndaghy kýreste «batysshyldar» basym týsti. Halyq ózining strategiyalyq sayasy damu baghytyn tandady.  Ol – Batys boldy. Euroodaq Ukraiyngha barynsha qol ýshin bergenimen, qoyghan talaptaryn tolyq oryndau jolynda  qiyndyqtardy enserude.

Ukrainnyng tandaghan strategiyalyq syrtqy sayasaty Kremlding jýikesine tiide. Mәskeu Ukrainnyng ishki isine aralasyp, lobbisterin iske qosuyn toqtatar emes. Ukrain halqy Reseyden alystap, Batysqa – Europagha jaqyndaudy sheshti.  Qazaq halqynyng taghdyry siyaqty, Shar Rossiya bodany men Kenes Odaghynyng ezgisi – ukrain halqyna qasiret-qayghydan basqa týk әkelmegeni belgili. Ótken ghasyrdaghy asharshylyq 4 mln ukraindyqtardy jalmap ketti.  Újdandy ukraindyqtar búl qoldan jasalghan genosid ekenin zanmen týiindep aldy. Qazaq pen ukraiyn halyqtarynyng taghdyry úqsas – Kremliden kórgen tepkisi men ezgisi óte auyr boldy. Bir kezderi tipti Últ retinde joyylyp ketuding az-aq, aldynda qaldy. Sondyqtan olardyng jan dýniyesinde Reseyge degen senim úshqynynyn  qalmaghanyn biz jaqsy týsinemiz.

Mәskeu ozbyrlyghynyn  shegi joq eken.  21 ghasyrda da  ortaghasyrlyq  әdetinen janylar emes. Endigi jerde ukraindyqtardyng da jalghyz tandauy qalghany bayqalady. Ol – qolyna qaru alyp, elin-jerin qorghau, qan tógip, qúrban beruge tәuekel etu. Ne jeniske jetip, Europa qauymdastyghynyng bir mýshesi bolyp, adamsha ómir keshu, ne jenilip  bodandyqqa týsip, borday tozu.

Dese de órkeniyet әlemi ukraindy jalghyz qaltyrmaytyn kórinedi. AQSh, Kanada jәne Europanyng sheshimi anyq boldy. Ol – Ukrainagha batyl qoldau kórsetu. Olar kenesshilerimen, qaru-jaraq, tehnika jәne qarjysymen Kiyevke jappay kómek kórsetude. Ukraindyqtar  býgingi kýnning soghysyna jauap bere alatyn armiyasyn da jasaqtap ýlgergenge úqsaydy. AQSh, Kanada, Europadaghy qandastary, eriktiler  de Otandy – Ukrainany qorghau soghysyna belsene aralaspaq eken. Eldegi 42 mln túrghynnyng ishinde Reseyge býiregi búratyndar sany da az emes.  Dese de halyqtyng basym bóligi ózderining bolashaghyn Europamen baylanystyrady. Osy jolda bolatyn qiynshylyq, kedergiler de endi olardy alghan betinen qaytara almaytyn kórinedi. Dese de Reseyden elding shyghysyndaghy aimaqtardy Qyrymdy anneksiyalap alghanday, jútyp keter qater de tónip túr.

Búl tiresting manyzy men mәni tym aryda jatuy da mýmkin. Ukraiyn-Resey tiresi tek ukrain halqynyng taghdyryn sheship qana qoymay, NATO-nyng da bolashaghyn aiqyndaytyn týri bar.  NATO  qúramyndaghy  30 el, Shyghys Europadaghy eng ýlken memleket, Europanyng «seriktesi» Ukrainany Mәskeuding azuynan aman alyp qala almasa, onda NATO-nyng da bedeli men senimi joghalmaq. Zúlymdyq oshaghynyng bir búty sanalghan Reseyding imperiyalyq astamshylyghynan qútylu – býgingi Batys qoghamynyng basty maqsaty bolugha tiyis. Sondyqtan, búl tiresti NATO men Mәskeu arasyndaghy sheshushi beldesu deuge negiz bar.

NATO-nyng Shyghysqa keneni 

1949 jyly, Kenes Odaghynyng europagha kenenining aldyn alu maqstynda qúrylghan NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization, qúramynda 12 el bolghan) úiymyna qarsy kýsh retinde, 1955 jyly  Kenes Odaghynyng qoldauymen Polishada Varshava úiymy qúryldy. 1991 jyly KO qúlaghanan son, sol varshavalyqtar negizinen NATO úiymynyng mýshesine ainaldy.

NATO shyghysqa kenen ýstinde. Mýshe sany býginde 30 memleketke jetken. 1997 jyldan keyin búl odaqqa  Estoniya, Latviya, Litva, Polisha, Chehiya, Sloveniya, Venigriya, Rumyniya, Slovakiya, Horvatiya,   Kosova, Albaniya, Soltýstik Makedoniya, Bolgariya qatarly 14 memleket mýshelikke ótken.  Kremliding talaby, mine, osy 1997 jyldan keyin qabyldanghan osy elderden NATO kýshterin alyp ketu. Reseyding alandauynyng da negizi joq emes. Resey territoriyasynyng batysynan endep kele jatqan múzday qarulanghan NATO kýshteri Putinning úiqysyn qashyrady. Ukraina NATO qúshaghyna óter bolsa, Qara tenizding Resey ýshin strategiyalyq manyzynan mәn ketpek.  Putin biyligining alany  kýshti. Songhy mәlimetterge qaraghanda, Kremliding talaptarynan AQSh bas tarytyp, jazbasha jauabyn qaytarghan. Búl Kremli ýshin ýlken soqqy sanaluda. Sonda da Mәskeu biyligi әli de diplomaiyalyq resurstardyng sarqylmaghanyn, kelisu mýmkindigi baryn aityp, ózin aldarqatyp otyrghan synayly.  Osy joly Ukrainanyng da, AQSh bastaghan NATO mýshelerining de maydany anyq, Ukraina tәuelsiz el, onyng tandauyna eshkim qol súgha almaydy. Ukrain jerine jasalar basqynshylyq – NATO elderine tóngen qauip. NATO  Ukrainanyng memlekettik tútastyghy ýshin qoldan kelgenning bәrin jasaydy. Resey kýsh kórseter bolsa, onda Batystyng eng auyr jazasyna dushar bolady. Endi Putinge sheginer jol tarylyp, aitar syltau da azaida. Putin bopsalau oinyn tym ýlken bastap alghangha úqsaydy. Aldaghy jerde Putinge «attan týsu» ýshin de layyqty syltu kerek nemese soghys ashu ýshin de naqty sebep qajet. Soghystyn, shapqynshylyqtyng jauapkershiligi men zardaby Kremli ýshin apattan auyr bolmaq.

Bir jaghynan, búl yqtimal soghysty AQSh bastaghan NATO qalap ta otyrghan siyaqty kórinedi. Putin búl shyrghadan attap ótip ketui kerek, bolmasa opyq jeydi. Soghystyng Reseyge tiyimdiligi shamaly. Soghys úzaqqa sozylar bolsa, Resey túralaydy. Sony kýireuge aparuy mýmkin. Ózin qansha qatang liyder obrazynda somdasa da,  Putinning de ýreyi basym ekeni sezile bastady. Jappay ýlken soghystyng bolu mýmkindigitómendeu bolghanymen, Ukrainnyng shyghys aimaghyndaghy ishki soghys kýsheyip ketui yqtimal. Putin osy aimaqtaghy janjalgha baryn salady.

Qorta aitqanda, Ukraiyn-Resey arasyndaghy tires ýlken soghysqa úlasa ma, joq pa, ony eshkim de dóp basyp aita almaydy. Soghys bola qalghan jaghdayda, búl ekinshi dýniyejýzilik soghystan keyingi eng iri әri saldary da ýlken soghys bolatyny aityluda.  Soghysta Mәskeu jense de, jenilse de  Qazaqstangha ýlken әseri bolady. Batys elderi Reseyge salatyn auyr sanksiyalar EAEO-tyng beldi mýshesi, eksportynyng negizi Resey arqyly Europagha shyghatyn, tau-ken ónimderin Resey zauttary tútynatyn  Qazaqstannyng ekonomikasy ýshin ýlken soqqy bolary belgili.

Qantar uaqighasynan song Kremlige kiriptarlyghymyz arta týskenin eskersek, ÚQShÚ atynan Ukraiyn-Resey qaqtyghysyna aralaspaghan kýnning ózinde Putinning agressorlyq qadamdaryna kem degen de Kyrym anneksiyasyn «týsinistikpen» qaraghanymyzday, týsinistik tanytyp qaluymyz da bek mýmkin.

Aldaghy kezende Putinning kesiri tútas Orta Aziyadaghy keri әserin kýsheyte týseri anyq.

Baqan Berikjan

Abai.kz