Qyrghyz ghajayyby. Qazaq túzaghy
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Eger biz «Ortalyq Aziya barysy» dep – osy aimaqta ekonomikasy basqalargha qaraghanda qarqyndy ósip jatqan eldi aitatyn bolsaq, onda resmy týrde Qyrghyzstan barys dep sanalady. Biz 2000-2012 jyldary, 12 jyl qatarynan barys boldyq. Sol kezende jyl sayyn ekonomikamyz 8-10 payyzgha ósip otyrdy.
Iya, qazir de algha jýrip kelemiz. Biraq jyldyq ósim 5 payyzdan aspaytyndyqtan, Qazaqstan ekonomister tilinde «orta tabys túzaghyna» týsip qaldy. Sondyqtan mindetti týrde ang bolghymyz kelse, onda biz ózimizdi barys emes, anshy qúrghan túzaqqa týsip qalghan qasqyr dep eseptegenimiz jón. Jәne ol týrki Tәnirining totemi – Kók bóri obrazyna jaqsy ýilesedi.
Qyrghyz ghajayyby
Pandemiyada Ortalyq Aziyadaghy barlyq bes memleketting ekonomikasy túralap qaldy. Odan tez aiyqqandar da bar, bas kótere almaghandary da bar. 2022 jyly Qyrghyzstandaghy ekonomikalyq ósim 9 payyzdy kórsetti. Al Qazaqstan sol jyly 3,2 payyzgha ósken bolatyn. 2022 jylghy jogharghy bazagha qaramastan, 2023 jyly Qyrghyz ekonomikasy 6,2 payyzgha ósti. Biz 2023 jyly 5,1% ósim kórsettik. 2024 jyldyng alghashqy jartysynda Qyrghyzstandaghy ishki jalpy ónimning ósimi 8,6 payyz boldy. Qyrghyz ýkimeti 2024 jyldy 6 payyzdyq ósimmen jabamyz degen oida. Biz 2024 jyldyng alghashqy jartysynda ishki jalpy ónimning nebary 3,3 payyzgha ósuin tirkedik.
Sonda Qyrghyzstan nening esebinen ekonomikasyn jaqsy damytyp jatyr? Jәne olarda bizden qanday aiyrmashylyq bar? Osy súraqtardyng jauabyn izdeu ýshin memleketterding ekonomika qúrylymyna terenirek ýnilu kerek bolady.
Qyrghyzstan ekonomikasynyng 50,2 payyzy sauda jәne shaghyn/orta qyzmet kórsetu salasynan túrady. Salyq 22,7%, óndiris 19,2%. Osy ýsh baghyt – olardyng ekonomikasynyng negizgi tiregi. Salyq pen óndiris salalarynda altyn óndiretin «Qúmtór» kәsipornynyng ýlesi shamamen 20-25 payyz. Demek, altynnyng әlemdik naryghynyn, ondaghy ózgeristerding Qyrghyz ekonomikasyna әseri shamamen 10 payyz dengeyinde dep tanugha bolady.
Biyl da ekonomikanyng ósuin negizinen qyzmet kórsetu salasy qamtamasyz etti. Onyng ishine transshekaralyq sauda kiretinin eskersek, Qytaydan Reseyge jasalatyn reeksporttyng ýlken rólin bayqaymyz. Búdan shyghatyn bir qorytyndy - Qyrghyzstan taza servistik ekonomika modelinde jәne oghan qosymsha jenil ónerkәsip pen tau-ken óndirisin alyp keledi. Búl jaghynan Qyrghyzstan ekonomikasynyng qúrylymy tura Almaty aglomerasiyasynyng qúrylymyna úqsaydy. Al Almatyny esepke almaghanda, Qazaqstan ekonomikasynyng qúrylymy mýlde bólek.
Qazaq túzaghy
Qazaqstan ekonomikasy – shiykizattyq eksporttyq modelige qúrylghan. Tipti IJÓ qúrylymyndaghy ýlesi basym (54%) qyzmet kórsetu salasynyng qomaqty bóligi osy múnay-gaz, tau-ken óndirisindegi qyzmet kórsetuden túrady. Ekonomikanyng 27,5 payyzy shiykizatti óndiru men óndeuge jatady. Búl jaghdayda, bizge ekonomikanyng ósui ýshin syrtqy shiykizattyq naryqtarda múnay men uran, ferroqorytpalar baghasynyng údayy qymbattap otyrghany kerek. Al 2023-2024 jyldary naryqta onday bir keremetter bayqalmaydy.
Osydan shyghatyn bir qorytyndy, qyrghyz ekonomikasy anaghúrlym iykemdi jәne jaghdaygha tez beyimdele alady. Dәl qazir olargha sanksiyalyq rejim reeksportpen ainalysyp, jaqsy tabys tauyp, ishki investisiyalaryn ýlghaytugha jәne syrtqy qaryz mәselesin sheshuge mýmkindik berip otyr. Olar búl mýmkindikti paydalanuda.
Al Qazaqstan ekonomikasy auyrlau qozghalady. Jәne belgili bir әleumettik mindettemeler men úlghayyp jatqan qaryz qamytynyng astynda qalyp, erteng qajet bolady-au degen salalargha investisiya qúya almay jatyr. Syrtqy qaryzdyng artyp, budjet defisiytining úlghangy jәne Últtyq qorgha sozyla beretin alaqandar osynyng dәleli.
Sondyqtan bizge barys boludy emes, qaryz bolmaudy qarastyrghan jón. Barys bәribir Alatau shyndarynda qaldy. Tek ontýstik bókterge ketip qalghany bolmasa.
Aybar Oljaevtyng jazbasy
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