Ukraina daghdarysynyng týpki sebebi – ekonomikalyq biylik ýshin kýres jәne Putinning «Euraziyalyq odaq» turaly armanynyng joyyluy.

Kóptegen adamdar Ukraina daghdarysyn: Ukrainadaghy reseyshil ýkimetting ydyrauyna әkelip soqtyrghan «maydan tónkerisin», 2014 jylghy Qyrym oqighasy men 2022 jyly bastalghan Resey-Ukraina soghysyn NATO-nyng shyghysqa qaray ýzdiksiz keneninen tuyndady dep sanaydy.

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Qyrym oqighasynan tórt jyl búryn 2010 jyldyng aqpanynda Ukrainagha jana preziydent bolyp tonau men zorlyq-zombylyq qylmystaryn jasaghan jәne týrmede otyryp shyqqan Viktor Yanukovich saylandy.

Barshamyzgha belgili, ol kezde Resey men Batystyng qarym-qatynasy jaqsy bolghan, 2008 jyly Beyjing Olimpiadasynda Resey Gruziyagha basyp kirgen kezde de AQSh biyligi ýnsiz qalghan.

Reseyshil Yanukovich biylikke kelgennen keyin Ukrainany NATO-dan alshaqtaugha iytermeley bastady. 2010 jyldyng shildesinde Yanukovich «Ishki jәne syrtqy sayasat prinsipteri turaly» zang jobasyn Ukraina parlamentine kópshilik dauyspen qabyldatty. Beytaraptyq turaly zannyng qabyldanuyn ukrain halqynyng kópshiligi, onyng ishinde europagha býiregi búratyndar da qoldady. Ukraina óz ekonomikasyn damytu ýshin EO-ny paydalanghysy kelgenimen, Resey narazy bolady dep qauiptengendikten, Ukraina parlamenti 2010 jyly Beytaraptyq aktisin qabyldady. Olar Ukraina beytarap el bolyp, NATO-gha kiruge úmtylmasa, Putin renjy qoymas dep oilady.

2013 jyly Ukraina әskerge shaqyru jýiesin alyp tastap, onyng beytarap mәrtebesin odan әri qamtamasyz etti, búl Putin men Reseyge jaghynu úshin jasalghan shara edi.

Alayda, 2014 jyldyng qantarynda Yanukovich Mәskeude Putinge baryp, qaytyp oralghan son, Putinnen manyzdy mindetteme alghanday, Ukraina men Euroodaq arasynda qol qoyylghan erkin sauda kelisiminen bas tartty.
Yanukovichting Reseyge sapary Euroodaqpen erkin sauda turaly kelisimdi jaqtaghan ukrain halqynyng tórt jyldyq kýsh-jigerin zaya ketirip, ashu-yzasyn tudyrdy. 2014 jyldyng aqpanynda ukraindyqtar satqyn preziydentke narazylyqtaryn bildirip, preziydent Yanukovichti qyzmetinen bosatu turaly talap qoydy. Yanukovich Mәskeuge qashty.

Odan keyin 2014 jyldyng nauryz aiynda Resey Qyrymdaghy orystardy jeliktirip býlik shyghardy, sodan keyin «beybitshilikti saqtaymyz» degen jeleumen Qyrymdy basyp alugha әsker jiberdi, sodan keyin aimaqty Reseyge qosu ýshin «referendum» ótkizdi.

Ukraina nelikten NATO-ny tandady? anyghynda, Ukrainany Batystyng qúshaghyna iytermelegen Putinning sәt sayyn tize batyruy edi.

Yanukovich Euroodaqpen erkin sauda kelisiminen bas tartqangha deyin Ukraina tek ekonomikasyn damytqysy keldi, Konstitusiyagha beytaraptyghyn jazyp, tipti mindetti әskery qyzmetti alyp tastady.

Aqyrynda, Resey Qyrymgha basyp kirgennen keyin Ukraina beytaraptyghynan tolyqtay bas tartyp, Batystan qorghau izdey bastady.

2014 jyldyng sәuirinde Putin Donbas aimaghyndaghy reseyshil kýshterdi qaruly kóteriliske shaqyrdy, al Ukraina ýkimetining kýshteri kóterilisti basu ýshin dereu Donbasqa kirdi. Soghys birte-birte Donbas kóterilisshilerine qarsy baghyttala bastaghanda, sahnanyng artynda túrghan Putin Ukraina ýkimetin is jýzinde baqylanatyn audandargha ýlken avtonomiya beruge mәjbýrleu ýshin kýsh qoldanamyn dep qorqytty. Donbas aimaghy Reseyding Ukrainagha bolashaq basyp kirui ýshin túraqty plasdarmgha ainaldy.

Qyrymnyng «Reseyge referendumy» әser etkendey, Ukrainanyng shyghysynda separatistik ýrdis kýsheyip, Donesk jәne Lugansk provinsiyalary birinen song biri tәuelsizdik jariyalady, al Ukrainanyng shyghysyndaghy ýkimet kýshteri men azamattyq úiymdar keskilesken shayqastardy jalghastyrdy.

Ukraina mәselesining shiyelenisuining jalghasuy ayasynda Resey, Ukraina, Germaniya jәne Fransiya basshylary 2015 jyly 12 aqpanda eki tarap arasynda atysty toqtatugha qol jetkizudi maqsat etken Jana Minsk kelisimine qol qoydy.

Alayda, kelisim Resey Ukrainagha basyp kirgenge deyin sóz jýzinde qaldy.

2016 jyldyng 1 qantarynda Ukraina men Euroodaq arasynda qol qoyylghan erkin sauda kelisimi resmy týrde kýshine endi. Kelisimge sәikes, Euroodaq Ukraina importyna salynatyn tarifterdi kezen-kezenimen alyp tastaydy.
Sodan beri Poroshenko da, Zelenskiy de EO men NATO-gha qosyludyng qalyptasqan sayasatyn ústandy.

Putin túsynda Reseyding әskery kirisi ýsh esege juyq ósti. Reseyding jan basyna shaqqandaghy JIÓ de Putin biylikke alghash kelgen kezdegi 2000 AQSh dollarynan 2013 jyly 16000 AQSh dollaryna deyin ósti, búl 13 jylda jeti ese ósti.

Putin Reseyding tek eki odaqtasy bar ekenin birneshe ret ashyq aitty: armiya men flot. Ol tek әskery kýshterdi kýsheytu arqyly ghana Resey shyn mәninde kýshti bola alady jәne euraziyalyq integrasiya turaly armanyn qoldaydy dep eseptedi. Euraziyalyq integrasiya - Putinning armany, búl onyng ýshinshi preziydenttik nauqanyndaghy sóilegen sózining de basty taqyryby boldy. Putin postkenestik kenistikte euraziyalyq integrasiyagha qol jetkizu Resey ýshin siyrek kezdesetin tarihy mýmkindik jәne manyzdy maqsat ekenin aitty.

Euraziyalyq integrasiyanyng mәni Kenes Odaghy ydyraghannan keyin payda bolghan 15 memleketti sayasi, ekonomikalyq jәne әskery odaq retinde qayta qalyptastyru jәne Europa men Aziyanyng eki qúrlyghyn qamtityn quatty úiym qúru bolyp tabylady.

EO Ukrainany shyghysqa qaray kenending manyzdy nysanasy retinde qarastyryp, Ukrainanyng 50 milliongha juyq naryghyna jәne arzan júmys kýshine kóz alartady.

Ukraina kenes shekpeninen shyqqan eski әriptesterimen Euraziyalyq odaq qúrghysy kelmeydi, kerisinshe, EO-gha erudi qalaydy, sondyqtan Ukrainanyng tandauy Ukraina daghdarysynyng negizgi sebebi, Resey men EO arasyndaghy qaqtyghys – Shyghys Europadaghy ekonomikalyq ýstemdik ýshin kýres bolyp tabylady.

Alayda Putinning jospary ózgerissiz qaldy. 2014 jyldyng 29 mamyrynda Resey, Belarusi jәne Qazaqstan preziydentteri Astanada Euraziyalyq ekonomikalyq odaq qúru turaly kelisimge resmy týrde qol qoydy.

Qyrymgha basyp kirer aldynda Putin әli de Ukrainany rayynan qaytaramyn dep ýmittengen, alayda Putindi odan beter tang qaldyrghany – Ukrainanyng tek ekonomikalyq túrghydan Batysqa bet búryp qana qoymay, tipti NATO-gha kiruge úmtyluy, onyng tózimin tauysty.

Qazirgi kýni Resey-Ukraina soghysynda Qyrymdy qaytaryp almasa, Ukraina eng kóp zardap shegetin tarap bolady.

Ukraina Europalyq Odaq pen NATO-gha qosylugha úmtyluda - búl eki úiymgha kiruding manyzdy sharttarynyng biri shkearalyq daudyng bolmauy - Ukraina armiyasynyng býkil aumaqty qaytaruy nemese Qyrym men Shyghys Ukrainanyng tәuelsizdigin moyyndauy kerek.

Eng yqtimal nәtiyje - Ukraina óz talaptarynyng eshqaysysyna qol jetkize almaydy jәne býkil aumaghyn qalpyna keltire de almaydy jәne NATO-gha da kire almaydy. Putin ýshin Qyrymnan aiyrylmasa, tipti Resey soghysta jenilse de, onyng qylshyghy qisaymaydy.

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