Shamamen 2012 jyly Almatyda, Últtyq kitaphanada «Sayasattanugha kirispe» degen kitapty oqyp otyrghanymda, Abay atyndaghy QazÚPU-da júmys jasaytyn, jasy 70-ten asqan ghalym aghayymyz (aty-jónin úmyttym) qasymdaghy oryndyqqa otyryp, kitabymdy qarap: «Qanday kitap oqyp otyrsyn, bala? Sayasattyng ne ekenin bilesing be, ózi?» – degen edi.

«Mmm, búl ejelgi grek tilinde «qoghamdyq is» degen sózden shyqqan» dep bastap jatqanymda: «Tasta, dúrys emes. Sayasat – ol jeke mýdde jolynda jasalghan barlyq satqyndyqty aqtap alatyn әreket», – degen. Sol sózi esimde qalyp qoyypty.

Apta basynan bastap Germaniyada әigili Munhen qauipsizdik konferensiyasy ótti. Biraq, búl jolghy qauipsizdik konferensiyasynda Aq Ýy ókilderi, barlyq qatysushylarga trening ótkizip ketkendey әsker qaldyrdy. Saghattap, leksiya oqyp, osyghan deyin demokratttardyng aitatyn argumentterine qarama-qayshy pikirler aityp shyqty.

Soghysty bir kýnde toqtatamyn deytin D. Tramp Mәskeuge ózi birinshi qonyrau shalyp, bir saghattan asa sóilesken. Keyin V. Zelenskiymen sóilesip: «Jalpy, Resey de, Ukraina da beybitshilikti qalaydy. Men V. V. Putinmen Ukraina boyynsha Saud Arabiyasynda kezdesuim mýmkin», – deydi.

Tek V. Zelenskiy ghana emes, tútas Europa men Tayau Shyghys elderi D. Tramptyng әreketin «Ukrainanyng tu syrtynan oq atyp, satyp ketti», – dep aiyptap jatyr. Ukrainagha shabuyl jasalyp, soghys bastalghanyna kelesi aptada ýsh jyl tolady. Eger Aq Ýy tarapy aitqanday («Ukraina NATO-gha birjola kirmey, qauipsizdik kepildigi berilmey, 20% territoriyasy Resey qúramynda qalady») kelisim jasalsa, búl jyly kim JENIP, kim JENILGEN bolady?

Birinshiden, Ukraina songhy myng kýn boyy ózining birneshe ese ýlken, yadrolyq qaruy bar elge qarsy kýresip qana qoyghan joq, 80% territoriyasyn saqtap qaldy. Songhy eki jylda Ukraina budjeti jyl sayyn 4,4% ósim kórsetti. Jalpy, Batystyng kómegi JIÓ-ning 20%-yn qúrap otyr. Soghysta qoldanylyp jatqan әskery tehnikalardyng 40%-y – otandyq ónim. Soghys bastalghan tústa búl kórsetkish 2% ghana bolghan.

Jalpy, Ukrainadaghy soghys tek 2022 jyly bastaldy desek, qatelesemiz. Soghystyng basy 2014 jyly bastalyp, naqty sheshimin tappay jalghasyp keledi. 2014 jyly Resey 1 mln-nan asa Ukraina halqyn jәne 7% territoriyasyn ózine qosyp alghan. 2022 jyldan bastap 20% territoriya Resey qúramyna ótti, 6 mln-nan asa azamat basyp alynghan aimaqtarda qaldy. Búl aimaqtarda qalghandarmen qalay júmys jasalatyny turaly jeke birneshe maqala jazugha bolady. Kiyevtegi halyqaralyq әleumettanu institutynyng qarasha-jeltoqsan ailarynda jýrgizgen saualnama qorytyndysy boyynsha, beybitshilikke kelu ýshin shyghystaghy keybir aimaqtardy Resey qúramynda qaldyrudy qoldaushylar sany 32%-dan 38%-gha ósken. Biraq territoriyalyq tútastyqty saudagha salugha bolmaydy deytinder 51%.

Ekinshiden, AQSh pen EO elderining ústanymdary jyl basynan beri birneshe mәselede qarama-qayshy bolyp otyr. Ásirese, Daniya boyynsha, endi Ukraina jәne Germaniya (AfD últshyl partiyasyn jappay qoldau mәselesi) arasynda kelispeushilikter órship túr. Sondyqtan, AQSh-tyng Ukraina boyynsha keri sheginip, Reseymen jaqyndasuynyng qúny strategiyalyq túrghyda óte qymbatqa týspek. Qysqasha aitqanda, búl Ukraina emes, aldymen AQSh-tyng jenilisi bolady.

Ýshinshiden, barlyq jaghdaydy syrttan baqylap, asyqpay әreket etip otyrghan Qytaydyng yqpaly tek ekonomikalyq qana emes, endi iydeologiyalyq jәne sayasy túrghyda da arta bermek. Qytay búl mýmkindikti tiyimdi paydalanatyny anyq.

Jalpy, Ortalyq Aziya elderi ýshin aimaqqa eshbir alyp derjavanyng qatty jaqyndap ketpeui qajettigin týsingendey. Kerisinshe, aimaqta yqpaldy, tipti bir-birine qarama-qayshy mýddeli toptardyng yqpalyn arttyra beru kerek. Týrkilik baghyt, ASEAN aimaghy, Islam әlemi, EO – barlyq tarappen baylanysty nyghaytu qajet. Múny hedjing dep ataydy.

Núrbolat Nyshanbay, sayasattanushy

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