Birneshe jyldyng aldynda ghana Ýndistan jalpy halyq sany jaghynan Qytaydy basyp ozyp, әlemdegi 1-shi oryngha shyqty.

Qazir Qytaydan Ýndistannyng 57 million adamy kóp. 2014 jyldan bastap Qytayda demografiyalyq ósim jyldan-jylgha azaida. 2024 jyly tuylghandardyng sany 9 million 20 myng adamdy qúrasa, 2025 jyly 8,5 milliongha qúldyraydy dep boljanuda. Búl 2000 jylghy 21 milliongha salystyrghanda 3 esege juyq tómen kórsetkish. Múnda demografiyalyq ósim bayaulap qana qoyghan joq, keri ósu jaryqqa shyghyp otyr. 2020 jyldan beri ólim kórsetkishi tuu kórsetkishinen asyp, 4 jylda 10 million adamgha kemip ketken (1,426 milliardtan 1,416 milliardqa qúldyraghan). Osylay qúldyray berse, 2050 jylgha qaray 1,26 milliardqa azaiy mýmkin dep boljanuda. Qytayda erler jalpy halyq sanynyng 51,27%-yn qúraydy, demek әieldermen salystyrghanda 18 milliongha juyq adam kóp.

2009-2025 jyldar arasyndaghy Qytaydaghy demografiyalyq ósuding grafiygi.

Basty sebepter mynalar:

1. Urbanizasiyanyng yqpaly

Álemde ekonomikasy damyghan elderding deni urbanizasiya prosesin bastan keshirgen, kóbi 75-85% halqy qala-qalashyqtarda túratyn elder.

Urbanizasiyany eng aldymen Úlybritaniya bastan keshirdi. Industriyalanudyng jogharylauyna baylanysty «dýnie zavody» atanghan el әlemning 40%-dan artyq ónimin óndirgen «Jetkizu tizbeginin» (Supply chain) 1-shi memleketi retinde kózge týsti. Úlybritaniya óndirisi qanyqqannan keyin kelesi kezek Batys Europa elderine kelip, Fransiya, Germaniya, Italiya elderinde industriyalanu men urbanizasiya qatar jýrse, 3-shi kezek Soltýstik Amerikada jalghasty.

Jahandyq eki retki soghystan keyin óndiris oshaghy Batys Europadan Qúramma Shtattar eline, onan keyin Japoniya men Ontýstik Koreyagha kelip, osy elder tez qarqynmen urbanizasiyalandy.

Qytaygha óndiris tizbegi (әlemdik iri óndiris korporasiyalary: Apple, General Motor, Folks Wagon, Wallmart, Samsung, Honda t.b) 1990 jyldary jappay kire bastady. Ásirese 2000 jyly dýniyejýzilik sauda úiymyna kirgennen keyin, búl ýrdis tipti kisi senbes qarqynmen damyp, 2015 jyly Qytaydy «dýniyening zavodyna» ainaldyryp jiberdi.

1990 jyly Qytayda 30% halyq qalalarda túrghan bolsa, 2025 -jyly 67,5% boldy. Yaghny 956 millionnan artyq adam qalalarda túrady. Búghan tirkeui auyldyq jerlerde, biraq ózi qalada júmys isteytin adamdar kirmegen. Qalalanu barysynda kóptegen qiyndyqtar tuyndauda, mysaly júmyspen qamtudyng qiyndauy, jalaqynyng tómendigi, ýy baghasynyng joydaqsyz ósui, qymbatshylyq, kreditke buylu t.b. Sol sebepti 1970 jyldardan bastap Qytay biyligi «josparly tuyt» sayasatyn atqaryp, az balaly boludy dәriptegen bolsa da, ósip kele jatqan halyq sany urbanizasiyanyng yqpalynda bayaulap qaldy. Urbanizasiyalanu jýz milliondaghan adamgha júmys orayyn jaratty, aitalyq túrghyn ýilerdi salu, jol salu t.b. Dese de uaqyt óte kele búl salalarda qanyghu qúbylysy bastalyp, jalaqynyng tómendigi, kedeyshilikting qysymy 1-2 balany baghugha da jetkizbeytin dәrejege jetkizdi.

2. Ekonomikalyq qysym

Jogharyda aityp ótkenimizdey, 1980 jyldardan bastap ekonomika damydy, halyq túrmysy zor dәrejede jaqsarghanymen, soghan ilese tútynudyng artuy bayqalyp, densaulyq saqtau salasynda emdeu aqysy joydaqsyz jogharylady. Jay halyq  20-30 jyl jighan aqshasyn ýlken ota jasatsa boldy, júmsap qoyatyn boldy. Oqu-aghartu salasyndaghy bәsekening shiyelenisuine baylanysty balabaqshadan bastap, uniyversiytet bitirgenge deyin jýz myndaghan yuani júmsalatyn boldy. Túrghyn ýy baghasynyng joydaqsyz ósui de eng ýlken tútynu sanalady. Qytay halqynyng 70% tútynuy ýige baylanysty boldy.

Qytay әlemdegi 2-shi iri ekonomikalyq el bolghanymen, jan basyna shaqqandaghy kiris әli de tómen, onyng ýstine bay men kedeyding parqynyng adam sengisiz dәrejede úlghayyp ketui kóp sandy halyqty kedey túrmys keshiruge mәjbýr etude. Qytaydyng búrynghy premieri Ly Ki Chiyanning aituy boyynsha: 600 million halyq aiyna 1000 yuani men kýn kóredi (70 myng tengege ten). Al 416 million adam aiyna 1000-2000 yuani (70-140 myng tenge) men kýnelitken. 207 million adam 2000-3000 yuani men kýnelitken (140-210 myng tenge). 156 million adam aiyna 3000-5000 yuani men kýnelitken. 156 million adam 5000 yuani (350 myng tengeden) joghary kiris pen ómir sýrgen. Qytayda 15-16 million jeke kәsipkerler men qaltalylar bar, olar eldegi baylyqtyng qomaqty bóligin iyemdenip otyr. Búl statistikagha negizdelsek 90%-gha juyq adam tómen túrmys keshiretinder nemese kirisi ózinen kóp asyp ketpeytinder bolyp, kóp balaly bolugha, ony baghugha shamasy kelmeytinder ekenin kóruge bolady.

2007 jyldan bastap Qytayda ýy baghasy sharyqtap ósti, Pekiyn, Shanhay, Shenjin t.b qalalarda ýy baghasy ortasha 2 million dollargha jetti. Búl әdettegi qarapayym qytay 1200 jyl aqsha jisa әreng ýy ala alatyn bagha. Sol ýshin 1-shi dәrejeli qalalarda túratyn 200 millionnan asa halyqta 30-40 jyl ýidi kreditke alyp, tapqanymen sony tólep qalt-qúlt kýn keshiretinderde esep joq. Onday jaghdayda ýy problemasynda әiel jaq eshtememen eseptespey, kýieu jaqqa ýy talabyn qoyady. Búl bir adamnyng ómirin qúldyqqa baylaytynday qorqynyshty mәselege ainalghan.

3. Oqu-aghartudyng keri yqpaly

Býgingi tanda Qytaylyq ýlgidegi oqu-aghartu da ýlken daghdarystargha tap bolyp otyr. Balabaqshadan bastap 23-24 jasqa deyin tynymsyz emtihangha dayyndalu, demalys atauly joq, oqudan ózge tirlikke moyyn búra almaytyn, 20 jyldan asa uaqyt úiqysy qanbaytyn Qytay jastarynda belsizdik, bedeulik, jabyghu aurulary kóbeyip ketken. Sondyqtan nekelengenderding de belgili mólsherdegilerinde balaly bola almau kóp.

4. Áyelderding orynynyng erlerden jogharylap ketui

1990 jyldardan bastap Qytaydyng dәstýrli salttary batystyq media men kinolardyng әserinen shayqalyp, әiel tendigi mәselesi kóterilip, әielderding qoghamdaghy oryny jogharylady. Alayda búl da asyra siltelip ketkendikten erlerding mýddeleri taptalatyn dәrejege jetti. Kóptegen qytay әielderining oiy boyynsha: «Otbasyn baghu býkildey erlerding mindeti, erlerining aqshasy, tabysy әieline tәn boluy kerek, búl zang oghan erler renjimeui kerek. Erler ýilenu ýshin әiel jaqqa 300-700 myng yuani qalynmal beruge mindetti, taghy ýi, mashina aluy kerek, bala baghugha ketetin aqshany da kóterui kerek».

Sol ýshin qazir Qytay jastarynda ýilenuden qashatyndar kóbeygen, óitkeni basym kóp sandy jigitter búl talapty oryndau mýmkin emes dep, odan góri boydaq jýrudi dúrys dep qaraytyn dәrejege jetken. Óitkeni ýilenetin bolsa jigit jaq bar qorynan aiyrylyp, sonymen qatar qaryzgha batatyn dәrejege jetken.

5. Nekelenu kórsetkishining jappay qúldyrauy

Jogharyda aitylghanday Qytay qyzdarynyng jigitterge qarata qoyatyn talabynyng jappay jogharylauyna baylanysty biyldan bastap Qytay jigitteri jappay narazylyq bildirude. Joydaqsyz joghary qalynmaldy synaghan vidiolar men habarlar kóbeygen, kóptegen mamandar men qogham qayratkerleri de әielderding talaptary men erlerdi adam dep sanamauy shekten shyghyp bara jatyr dep synauda. Az sandy sanaly әielder de: «Qazir әielder ýshin erler aqsha shygharatyn bankomat, júmys isteytin robot, ne aitsa da, namysyna tiyse de shydaytyn qúl siyaqty bolyp bara jatyr, kóp sandy әielder barlyq jauapkershilikti erlerge iyteredi, aqshasy jetispese, qinalsa ony erkekterding kinәsi dep qaraydy. Tipti otbasy tarbiyesinde de qyzyna әkeng siyaqty er adamgha jolama dep aitatyn jaghyday kóp» dep mәsele qóterude.

Osy qiyndyqtargha baylanysty nekelenetin jastar sany jyl sayyn azayda. 2023 jyly nekelengender 7 million 680 myng júpty qúrasa, 2024 jyly 6 million 106 myng júpqa azayghan, biyl odan da azayatyny boljanuda. Ajyrasu mólsheri de artyp barady, onyng da 80% ekonomikalyq kiriske tireledi deydi mamandar.

Orta Aziyagha qanday yqpaly boluy mýmkin?

2025 jyly Qytayda 20-40 jas arasynda әli nekelenbegen adamdardyng jalpy sany 300 millionnan asqan. Ýilenbeuding basty sebebi jәne sol ekonomikalyq problemalargha kelip tireledi. Qytay әielderining qytay erlerin mensinbeui de basty sebepterding biri, óitkeni úl balagha qaraghanda qyz balany oqytu, uniyversiytette oqytu kórsetkishi joghary. Qazir uniyversiytet bitirgenderding 60%-y qyzdar, olar kirisi joghary, oqyghan kelbetti jigit tapqysy keledi de, әdettegi jigitterdi mensinbeydi. Tayau jyldary jastardyng әsirese, uniyversiytet bitirgen jastardyng kóbengine qosa olardyng júmys tabuy da qiyndap ketken. Soghan qaramastan qytay qyzdary ailyq jalaqysy 30-50 myng yuani, ýii, mashinasy bar jigitpen ghana ýilengisi keledi. Al onday jigitter 100-den bir ghana, bәrine kezige bermeydi. Al jigitter bolsa júmys joq nemese aiyna 2-3 myng yuani jalaqymen ýilenui mýmkin emes, al balaly bolu tipti, mýmkin emes dep qaraydy.

Aqshaly qytay erlerining de keybiri qazirgi kýnde talaby tym joghary qytay әiel alghannan, qalynmal talap etpeytin sheteldik әiel alu әlde qayda tiyimdi dep qaraydy.

2018 jylgha deyin sheteldikterge túrmysqa shyqqan qytay qyzdarynyng sany sheteldik әieldermen ýilengen jigitterden kóp bolyp kelgen bolsa, 2019-dan bastap sheteldik әiel alatyn qytay jigitterding sany kóbeyip ketti. Qytay jigitteri kóp әiel alatyn elderden: Vietnam eng kóp bolyp (198 myn) 32%-dy qúraghan. Onan keyin Soltýstik Korey 15,37% (98 myn),  3-shi orynda Resey (73 myn) 11,49%-dy qúraghan. Onan keyin Miyanma (43 mynnan astam) 6,56%-dy qúraghan. 11-shi orynda Tәjikstan bolyp 14426 adam bolyp 2,26%-dy qúraghan.

2024 jyly sheteldiktermen nekede 80%-dy erler kórsetip, sheteldik әieldermen nekelense, sheteldikke tiygen әielder 20%-gha týsip qalghan.

Qazir Qytayda kir juu, tamaq isteu siyaqty ýy júmystaryn kóbinde erler isteydi, әielder erlerdi syilamaydy, sol ýshin qytay erleri er adamdy syilaytyn, qalynmal, ýi, mashina súramaytyn, ýy júmysyn isteytin sheteldik әieldermen ýilenudi jón sanaydy.

Taghy bir mәlimette: Qytaylyq jigitterge túrmysqa shyqqan ózbekstandyq qyzdar sany 7 mynnan asqan dese, qazaqstandyq qyzdardyng qytay jigitterimen nekelengenderining sany 9786 dep kórsetilgen (múnda azamattyghy qytay qazaq jigitterde qamtylady).

Orys әielderining qytay erlerimen nekelengenderi 220 mynnan asqan, әsirese 2022 jyldan beri kýrt artqan, әsirese kedeylik jaylaghan qiyr shyghys, Siberiya ónirinen kóp. Sonymen qatar 2018 jyldan beri Qytay erlerimen ýilengen etnikalyq úighyr qyzdarynyng sany tym kóbeyip ketken. Tipti bay qytay jigit tanystyratyn ortalyqtar ashylghan, úighyr-qytay nekesine ýkimette tegin ýi, aqsha beretini anyq, sonymen birge qytaylarmen salystyrghanda úighyrlarda qalynmal tym arzan sanalady. Sonymen qatar úighyr qyzdary orys, pәkistan, tәjik qyzdary qytaylyqtar ýshin óte súlu dep baghalanady. Afrika elderinen әiel alghan qytay erleri de kóbeyde.

Sondyqtan tayau jyldary Qazaqstan, Qyrghyzstan, Tәjikstan, Ózbekstangha keletin qytaylyqtar kóbeyde jane olardyng kóbi erler. Sondyqtan aldaghy uaqytta olar Orta Aziya erlerining kýshti bәsekelesine ainaluy mýmkin. Búl bolashaqta Orta Aziya elderining demografiyasynda ózgeris әkelui de mýmkin. Óitkeni Orta Aziya qyzdarynda dәstýr әli saqtalghan. Er adamdy syilau kórsetkishi joghary, qalynmal da tómen, onan kóp balaly bolugha da peyildi. Orta Aziyada Qytaydyng iri qalalarymen salystyrghanda ýy baghasy 10 ese arzan, iri qalada túratyn 100 million qytay ýiin satyp Orta Aziyagha kelse shirigen bay bolatyny týsinikti.

Erzat Kәribay

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