8 tamyz 2025 j. Vashingtonda (AQSh preziydentining qatysuymen) Ázerbayjan men Armeniyanyng basshylary amerikalyq deldaldyqpen «Bastapqy beybitshilikti túraqtandyru Shartyna» (framework / initialed peace agreement) qol qoydy. Abai kz osy mәsele boyynsha әlemdik aqparatqa sholu jasady:

Qújattar eki el arasyndaghy kommersiyalyq jәne tranzittik qatynastardy ashudy, diplomatiyalyq qatynastardy qalyptastyrudy jәne әskery qaqtyghysty toqtatudy kózdeydi.

Búl kezdesude eng dauly elementterding biri — Ázerbayjannyng negizgi territoriyasyn Nahichevangha (eksklavqa) qosatyn jana tranzit dәlizi turaly bap bolatyn. AQSh preziydentining yqpalymen búl mәsele ong sheshimin tapty. Tranzittik dәliz AQSh baqylauynda bolatyn boldy. Dәlizdi úiymdastyru men damytu qúqyghyna úzaq merzimdi jeke jәne memlekettik-qúqyqtyq qúqyq) qol jetkizu turaly shart baptarynyng manyzdylyghy erekshe ataldy. (Reuters AP News Financial Times)

Búl kelissóz halyqaralyq geosayasatta neni ózgertedi?

AQSh yqpalyn kýsheytedi. Búl kelisim Vashingtonnyng Ortalyq jәne Ontýstik Kavkazda Reseyge tәn monopoliyalyq  jәne deldaldyq rólin әlsiretetini turaly signal beredi. Kerisinshe, AQSh ónirde belsendi oiynshy retinde pozisiyasyn nyghaytady. (The Washington Post Foreign Policy)

Al, Resey ýshin búl bedel jәne yqpal joghaltuynyng kórinisi. Mәskeu múndagha deyin, dәstýrli týrde, ónirdegi sheshimderdi mediatorlau arqyly óz yqpalyn saqtap kelgenbolatyn. Endi, búdan bylay Vashington negizgi tranzittik jobalargha qatysady. Resey osy ýshin uayymdauda. (RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty hudson.org)

Búdan bylay, aimaqtaghy tranzittik geoekonomika ózgeredi. Sebebi, Nahichevangha jәne Týrkiyagha tikeley qatynasty qamtamasyz etetin dәliz — Europagha, Týrkiyagha, Qytay/Ortalyq Aziyagha jana logistikalyq baghyt ashyp berui mýmkin. Sonymen qatar, búl Teniz tasymal joldarynyng konfigurasiyasyna yqpal etedi. Kaspiy arqyly ótetin tranzittik tauarlar legi artady. (Financial Times The Times Of Central Asia)

3) Nahichevangha (Nakhchivan) transporttyq dәliz ashudyng manyzy qanday?

Strategiyalyq-manyzdy: Ázerbayjan ýshin Nahichevan men basty territoriyany bir-birimen qauipsiz әri tikeley baylanystyru — geosayasy jәne әskery túrghydan óte manyzdy (Týrkiyamen baylanys, logistikalyq kýsheytu). (Reuters)

Ekonomikalyq әser: dәliz arqyly temirjol, magistralidar, múnay-gaz qúbyrlary, optikalyq talshyq jelileri siyaqty infraqúrylymdar jýrgizilse, tranzittik aghyndar, sauda jәne investisiyalar artuy mýmkin. Ortalyq Aziya–Týrkiya–Europa joldary ýshin balama baghyt payda bolady. (Financial Times The Times Of Central Asia)

Armeniya ýshin qauip-qater men payda kombinasiyasy: Osyghan deyin, Armeniyanyng Sunik (Zangezur) aimaghy arqyly ótetin dәliz onyng territoriyalyq tútastyghyna qatysty ishki sayasy alandaushylyq tudyryp kelgen edi. Ekinshi jaghynan, dәlizding ekonomikalyq tiyimdiligi Erevangha investisiya men eksport-import mýmkindikterin asha aluy bolatyn. Biraq, búl sharttar men kepildikterge tәueldi bolghandyqtan, jýzege aspay keldi. Endi ol keildikti AQSh óz moynyna jýktegen son, Ázerbayjan men Armeniya ózara kelisti. (The Armenian Weekly Responsible Statecraft)

Armeniya Qarabaq (Nagornyy Karabah / Artsakh) mәselesine qatysty týbegeyli sheshim qabyldady ma?

Qol qoyylghan kelisim Nagornyy Karabahtyng (Artsakh) mәselesin tolyghymen, týbegeyli sheship jatqan joq. 2023–2024 jyldarda Qarabaqta armyan túrghyndarynyng kóshi-qony, sonday-aq jergilikti biylikting taratyluy ryn aldy. Halyqaralyq sot ishattamalary (ICJ t.b.) birneshe jaqtan qaraluda. Qazirgi qol qoyylghan Sharttar eki tarap arasyndaghy memlekettik qatynasty túraqtandyrudy kózdeydi.

Biraq Qarabaqtaghy jeke azamattardyng keri qaytuy, qauipsizdigi, qylmystardy tergeu jәne mәselening qúqyqtyq sipattamasy әli de halyqaralyq dengeyde tolyq sheshilmedi. Sondyqtan «týpkilikti» dep aitu erte — súraqtar keybir mәseleler boyynsha praktikalyq tiyimdi sheshimderge keltirilgenimen, tolyq qúqyqtyq jәne gumanitarlyq sheshimder jalghasuda.

(civilnet.am Council on Foreign Relations)

Búl Tramptyn halyqaralyq bedeline әser ete me?

Iә — qysqa merzimde ong әser etui mýmkin. Aqparat qúraldary men kelissimgeqatysqan taraptar Tramptyng deldaldyq róline joghary bagha berip, onyng syrtqysayasattaghy jenisi retinde kórsetude; AQSh preziydenti búl jetistikti syrtqy arenada ózbedelin kýsheytu ýshin paydalanuy mýmkin (qoghamda әri sayasatta qysqa merzimdi sayasiy«plus»). (AP News The Washington Post)

Biraq úzaq merzimdi әser kýrdeli. Kelisimning túraqtylyghy, qúqyqtyq kepildigi jәne Qarabaqtaghy gumanitarlyq mәselelerding qalay sheshiletini — búlardyng bәri Tramptyng «diplomatiyalyq qabiletine» baylanysty. Eger kelisim úzaqqa sozylmasa nemese shiyelenisti qúqyqtyq/gumanitarlyq mәseleler tuyndasa, ol, әsirese armyan diasporasy men adam qúqyqtaryn algha tartatyn úiymdar tarapynan syngha úshyrauy mýmkin. Búl Sharttyng bedeline qarsy әser etedi. Sondyqtan, býgingi kelisimning manyzy onyng nәtiyjelerine baylanysty bolmaq. (Gardian ABC7 Los Angeles)

Resey búl kelisim turaly qanday pikirde?

Sarapshylar men búqaralyq aqparat qúraldary Mәskeuding narazylyghyn aityp jatyr. Mәskeu AQSh-ty «ónirlik prosesti bilmeydi» dep aiyptaydy. Kelissózde 2020 jylghy Resey úsynghan «soghysty toqtatu» erejelerin basshylyqqa aludy úsynady.

Resey ýshin negizgi qauip — Ortalyq Kavkazda ózining diplomatiyalyq jәne әskery yqpalyn joghaltu. Resmy pikirlerde Resey búghan qarsylyq tanytyp otyr. Ári, búl Reseymen diplomatiyagha keri әser etedi dep eskertude. (RadioFreeEurope/RadioLibertyrusi.org)

Qazaqstan preziydenti osy kelissóz jóninde qanday pikir bildirdi?

Qazaqstannyng aqparat agenttikteri boyynsha, Preziydent Qasym-Jomart Toqaev Ázerbayjan men Armeniyanyng «Vashington kelisimnin» tarihy manyzy bar ekenin qúptaghan mәlimdeme taratyldy.

Qazaqstan búl kelisimdi ónirlik túraqtylyq pen ekonomikalyq baylanystyng artuy retinde baghalady jәne búryn da (2024–2025 aralyghynda) Qazaqstannyng janjaldy taraptar arasyndaghy kelissózderge platforma úsynugha dayyn ekenin aitqan bolatyn. (Resmy Akorda-nyng búrynghy jәne qazirgi reaksiyalaryn qarastyrsa bolady.) (Apa.azKalibr)

Týiin: Vashingtondaghy búl bastama iri geosayasy ózgeristing belgisine úqsaydy: ol AQSh-ty Kavkazda belsendi oiynshygha ainaldyryp, Reseyding aimaqtaghy yqpalyn әlsiretui mýmkin.

Sonymen qatar, dәlizder men tranzittik joldar Ortalyq Aziya—Europa logistikasyn ózgertedi. Áriyne, kelisimning úzaq merzimdi әri tabysy boluy Qarabaqtaghy gumanitarlyq mәselelerdi sheshu jәne eki eldegi ishki sayasy jaghdaylargha tәueldi bolyp qala beredi.

Abai.kz