2018–2025 jyldar aralyghyndaghy dinamika naqty tabystardyng әlsiz qalpyna keluin kórsetedi. 2018 jyly ortasha nominaldy jalaqy shamamen 162–165 myng tenge dengeyinde bolyp, dollarlyq mәnde $480–500 shamasyn qúrady; sol kezende naqty jalaqy is jýzinde stagnasiyada boldy.

2025 jylgha qaray ortasha nominaldy jalaqy 340 myng tengeden asty, yaghny tengemen eki eseden astam ósti, alayda dollarlyq balamada $370–380 dengeyinde qalyp, 2018 jylmen salystyrghanda tómen boldy. Búl aiyrmashylyq valuta baghamynyng әlsireui men joghary inflyasiyalyq qysymnyng jinaqtalghan әserin kórsetedi.

Naqty kórsetkishter túrghysynan alghanda, 2018–2025 jyldary naqty jalaqynyng jiyntyq ósimi shekteuli boldy. 2019 jyldan keyingi ósim negizinen әkimshilik faktorlarmen (eng tómengi jalaqynyng ósui, budjettik sektordaghy indeksasiya) qamtamasyz etilip, naryqtyq ónimdilik ósimimen tolyq sýiemeldengen joq. 2025 jyly naqty jalaqynyng ósui nebәri 1–1,5% dengeyinde qalyp, 2022–2023 jyldardaghy naqty tabystardyng tómendeuin (–3–5%) ótey almady. Búl jaghday 2025 jyly inflyasiyanyng joghary dengeyde saqtaluymen (shamamen 12–13%) tikeley baylanysty bolyp, halyqtyng naqty tabystarynyng qalpyna keluin aitarlyqtay shektedi.

Mediandyq jalaqy dinamikasy tabys qúrylymyndaghy tensizdikti aiqyn kórsetedi: 2024–2025 jyldary mediandyq jalaqy 270–275 myng tenge dengeyinde qalyp, ortasha jalaqydan 20–25% tómen boldy. Búl halyqtyng basym bóligi ýshin tabystyng ósui shekteuli ekenin jәne tabystardyng joghary segmentterde shoghyrlanghanyn bildiredi. 2018 jylmen salystyrghanda mediandyq jalaqynyng naqty ósimi mardymsyz kýiinde qaldy.

Jalpy alghanda, 2020–2024 jyldary jinaqtalghan inflyasiya 45–50%-dan asyp, 2025 jyldy qosa alghanda 55%-gha jaqyndady. Sonyng nәtiyjesinde, 2025 jyly nominaldy jalaqynyng aitarlyqtay ósuine qaramastan, ýy sharuashylyqtarynyng satyp alu qabileti 2018 jylghy dengeyge tolyq qalpyna kelgen joq, al naqty tabystar boyynsha ekonomika úzaqmerzimdi qysym jaghdayynda qaldy.

Kollaj: Avtorgha tiyesili.

Búl jaghday Memleket basshysy Qasym-Jomart Kemelúly Toqaevtyng «Turkistan» gazetine bergen súhbatynda da atap ótilip, inflyasiyanyng halyq әl-auqatyn arttyrugha baghyttalghan kýsh-jigerdi beytaraptandyryp otyrghany, sonday-aq Ýkimet pen әkimder ýshin әleumettik-ekonomikalyq negizdi kýsheytu baghytynda atqaratyn júmys әli de jetkilikti ekeni kórsetildi.

Osyghan baylynysty 2026 jyly inflyasiya 9,5–12,5% aralyghynda bolady dep boljanuda, osyghan baylanysty Últtyq bank qatang aqsha-nesie sayasatyn saqtaudy jalghastyrady. Ýkimetting sharalary inflyasiyalyq qysymdy ishinara óteu maqsatynda tabystardy adresattyq qoldaugha, tariftik sayasatty tengeruge jәne júmyspen qamtudy keneytuge baghyttalghan.

Ghaly Dinmúhammed Ázimbayúly,

ekonomika ghylymdarynyng kandidaty, professor, Qoldanbaly etnosayasy zertteuler institutynyng ortalyq diyrektory

Abai.kz