«Arystannyng aibaty» - Izrailiding AQSh-pen birge Irangha qarsy әskery operasiyasynyng atauy. «Arystan men Kýn» – Irannyng 1979 jylghy Islam revolusiyasyna deyingi rәmizi»

Sonymen, AQSh pen Iran arasyndaghy qaruly qaqtyghys eki elding sharuasy boludan qalyp barady: Tayau Shyghystaghy teketires aimaqtyq qana emes, dýniyejýzilik sipat ala bastady. Aldymen, Irannyng ózi, әskery qúrylymdarmen qatar beybit júrt atqylaudyng astynda qaldy, qaladaghy ghimarattar qirauda, sosyn Iran jauap berip, osy ónirdegi AQSh әskery bazalary ornalasqan elder zardap shekti: qorghanys amaldaryn jasap, olar da әskery jaghynan qamdanyp, tiyisti jauabyn berude.

Kýnde bir janalyq, soghys aumaghy úlghayyp barady. Sol sebepti erteng ne bolaryn boljaudyng ózi mýmkin emes.

Sol sebepti men әzirshe dýniyeni dýrliktirgen qaruly qaqtyghystyng eki basty keyipkeri – AQSh pen Irannyng ne istep jatqany jәne ne isteui mýmkin ekeni turaly jazbaqshymyn. Óitkeni osy ekeuining jospary, shyn mәninde dittegen maqstattary, sodan tuyndaytyn qimyl-әreketterine bar nәrse baylanysty.

AQSh preziydenti Donalid Tramptyng ne istep, ne qoyatynyn aldyn-ala aitu mýmkin emes ekenin barsha júrt biledi. «Segiz soghysty toqtattym», - dep júrttan sýiinshi súraghan «Beybitshilik kenesinin» tóraghasy endi, mine, jana soghysty ózi bastap otyr. Búdan asqan ashy ironiya men sarkazm bola ma?!

Sonymen, Tramptyng soghysty bastauynyng basty sebepteri qanday?

O basta «basty maqsat - Irannyng yadrolyq qaru baghdarlamasynyng oryndaluyna jol bermeu», - dep Trampqa deyingi AQSh basshylary jii aityp keldi. Tramp ta sol ritorikadan ainymady. Biraq osydan biraz uaqyt búryn AQSh Irandaghy yadrolyq ortalyqtardy bombylap, jermen-jeksen etip tastady emes pe?

Sóz joq, Irandaghy teokratiyalyq rejimning óz halqyna jasap jatqan qiyanaty shash etekten. Alayda, bir memleketting basqa memleketting biyligin әskery kýsh qoldanyp, qúlatuy, sóz joq, halyqaralyq zannama normalaryna ýsh qaynasa sorpasy qosylmaydy. Yurisprudensiyada «presedent» degen úghym bar, býgin Venesuela men Irannyng ishki isine osynday óreskel týrde qol súqqan Tramp erteng basqa elde óz oiyna kelgenin istemeydi dep kim aita alady?!

Qalay bolghanda da, soghys bastalyp ketti. Onyng súmdyq hronikasyn biz kýnde kórip jatyrmyz. Qanshama adam qaza tapty, qanshama ghimarat qirap qaldy?! AQSh pen Izrailiding toqtar týri joq. Tramp kýni keshe «әskery operasiya tórt-bes aptagha sozyluy mýmkin», - dep qaldy.

Irangha kelsek, ayatollalar rejiymi «ólispey, berispeymiz!», -dep, qorghanys amaldarymen birge, AQSh әskery bazalary ornalasqan kórshi jәne alys elderdi nysanagha alyp, atqylauda.

Qaza tapqan ayatolla Hameneiyding ornyna kýni keshe jana basshy – onyng úly Modjtaba saylandy.

Jaghdaydyng odan әri órbui tórt nәrsege baylanysty dep oilaymyn.

Birinshiden, Tramp qanshalyqty tegeurindi de tabandy bola alady, o basta jariyalaghan maqsatyna jetu jolynda әrtýrli sebepterdi paydalanyp, tayqyp shygha kelmey me? Qarap otyrsaq, onyng óz elinde osy soghysqa qarsy kúshter az emes.

Ekinshiden, Iran biyligi әlemdegi eng ozyq әri jasaqtalghan qos armiyanyng shabuylyna qanshalyqty tótep bere alady, jýie qanshalyqty túraqty bola alady? Biylik qúramyndaghy kýshter auyzbirshilik tanyta ala ma? Osy kýnge deyin jekkórinishti bop kelgen biylikke qarapayym halyqtyng kózqarasy qanday bolady, ózgere me? Ortaq qauip aldynda teokrattar men demokrattar birigip ketpey me?

Óitkeni, el basyna kýn tughanda búryn aitysyp-tartysyp jýrgen sayasy kýshter uaqytsha bolsa da, jalpyúlttyq mәmilege kelu mýmkindigin mýldem joqqa shygharugha bolmaydy.

Ýshinshiden, soghysty bastaghan eki jaq basqa elderding de qoldauyna zәru ekeni týsinikti. Halyqaralyq koalisiyanyng qoldau dengeyi qanday bolady? Búl túrghydan alghanda, әriyne, býginde tasy órge domalap túrghan Tramptyng úpayy týgel bolmaq. Onyng ýstine Irandaghy teokratiyalyq jýiege degen kóp elding kózqarasy teris, ony qoldasa, Livandaghy «Hezbolla», Yemendegi husitter, Iraktaghy shiittik әskery qúrylymdar qol úshyn berui mýmkin.

Tórtinshiden, jәne de búl eng basty shart, bar nәrse Iran halqynyng ózine baylanysty. Osyghan deyin talay ret ayatollalar biyligine qarsy shyghyp kelgen erkin oily qauym osy tarihy mýmkindikti paydalana ala ma? Tramp ta, Netaniyahu da «óz taghdyryndy ózing shesh!», - dep Iran halqyna ýndeu tastap jatyr.

Parsy shyghanaghyndaghy soghystyng alystaghy Ukrainagha da qatysy joq emes, bir qiyndyghy sol: ukraiyn-resey soghysynyng taqyryby tasada qalyp, әlemdik kýn tәrtibindegi kezeginen shegerilip jatqanday. Onyng ýstine bar әsker  әleuetin Irangha qarsy soghysqa júmyldyrghan AQSh endigi jerde Ukrainagha qalaysha kómek bere alady eken?

Jә, múnyng bәri basqa elderge qatysty jayttar.

Tayau Shyghystaghy kýn sayyn qyza týsken maydan Qazaqstangha qanday әser etpek? Ol jaghyn da oilastyrghanymyz abzal.

Ol mәselelerding ishine Qazaqstannyng halyqaralyq úiymdarda mýsheligi, soghysyp jatqan eldermen búryn qol qoyylghan uaghdalastyqtary kiredi. Ol qújattarda bizge jýktelgen mindettemelerding salmaghy qanday?

Múnay men gazdyng baghasyna telmirip qalghan bizding budjetimiz osy eki shiykizattyng әlemdik baghasyna tikeley tәueldi ekeni belgili. Áskery amaldar múnay men gaz óndiretin elder jaghynda jýrgizilip, Iran әlemdik tasymal arnasy - Ormuz búghazyn bógep jatqanda «qara altyn» men «kógildir otynnyn» baghasy sharyqtap barady. Búl jaghday qansha uaqytqa sozylady? Jәne odan Qazaqstan qanshalyqty payda kóre alady?

Soghys alany úlghayyp bara jatqan siyaqty: Iran drondary Euroodaq mýshes3 Kiprge, Týrkiyadaghy AQSh әskery bazasyna jetip, qúlauda. Aluan- týrli basymdyqtary bar elderding ishinde ózimizge jaqyn, tuys, dini bir (Qazaqstan teniz arqyly Iranmen kórshiles әri Islam yntymaqtastyghy Úiymynyng mýshesi ekenin de úmytpayyq) memlekettermen ara-qatynasymyzgha núqsan keltirip almaymyz ba?

Bir sózben aitqanda, arystandar aiqasyp jatqanda Qazaqstan sekildi kókjaldyng óz mýddesin ghana qorghaytyn ústanymy men qimyl-әreketi bolu kerek dep sanaymyn.

Ámirjan Qosan

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