El arasynda jýrgende, songhy uaqytta qogham ishinde týrli әngimeler men boljamdar jii aitylyp jýr.

Ásirese Resey men Qazaqstan arasyndaghy qazirgi geosayasy jaghdaygha baylanysty halyqtyng jappay kóshi-qony turaly pikirler qyzu talqylanuda. Keybir derekterde, Reseyding Sibir, Povoljie jәne Oral ónirlerinen aldaghy uaqytta Qazaqstangha orasan kóp túrghyndardyng qonys audaruy mýmkin degen boljam aitylyp jatyr. Áriyne, búl qazirgi Resey ekonomikasynyng tyghyryqqa tirelip, halyq túrmysynyng kýizelisti jaghdaygha jetui, kýn kóristing qúldyrap, kýndelikti dastarhangha nan tabudyn qiynshylyqqa týsui, osynday jaghdaygha jetkizude. Taghy bir aitarymyz, nege Resey Qazaqstanmen shekaralas oblystarynyng malyn auru tabyldy dep ótirik qyryp tastady. Túrghyndaryn ash qaldyryp bizding elge qonys audartu emespe. Al endi, múnday ssenariy oryn alsa, Qazaqstan qanday sheshimder qabyldauy tiyis?

Búl problema, tek kóshi-qon nemese demografiya taqyryby ghana emes, ol últtyq qauipsizdik, ekonomika jәne әleumettik túraqtylyqpen tikeley baylanysty kýrdeli súraq.

Qaueset qaydan shyqty 

Álemdik dengeydegi sayasy jәne ekonomikalyq túraqsyzdyq әrdayym kóshi-qon prosesterin kýsheytedi. Reseyge qatysty sanksiyalar, ekonomikalyq qysym, әskery әreketterding úzaqqa sozyluy – múnyng bәri halyqtyng túrmys dengeyine әser etetini anyq. Osynday jaghdayda azamattardyng basqa elderge kóshuge úmtyluy tabighy qúbylys.

2022 jyldan beri Resey azamattarynyng Qazaqstangha uaqytsha kelui aitarlyqtay artqany belgili. Osy qúbylys negizinen mobilizasiyadan qashu, biznesin kóshiru nemese uaqytsha túraq tabu maqsatynda boldy. Ony ózdiriniz kóripte jýrsizder.

Sondyqtan qazirgi «kóp adamdar keledi» degen pikir kóbine naqty statistikagha emes, boljam men qauesetke negizdelgen deuge bolady. Múnday ózgeris qysqa merzimde oryn aluy ýshin birneshe shart qajet:

– Reseyde óte auyr gumanitarlyq jәne ekonomikalyq daghdarys oryn aluy;

– Qazaqstannyng shekarasynda kóshi-qongha esh shekteu qoyylmauy;

Degenmen, qazirgi jaghdayda búl faktorlardyng bir mezgilde sәikes kelui ekitalay. Qazaqstannyng kóshi-qon sayasaty da rettelgen, al enbek naryghy shekteuli.

Eger kóshi-qon shynymen kýrt ósse, onyng әseri әrtýrli boluy mýmkin:

Mysaly, túrghyn ýy baghasy qymbattaydy, әleumettik infraqúrylymgha (mektep, auruhana) qysym artady, júmyssyzdyq dengeyi ósui mýmkin, til jәne mәdeniyet jaghdayy ushyghuy yqtimal.

Ásirese, Qazaqstannyng soltýstik jәne shyghys aimaqtarynda demografiyalyq balans problemasy әrdayym sezimtal taqyryp bolyp kelgen.

Qazaqstanda orys tili keninen qoldanylatyny belgili. Osy til jaghdayy elimizdi ýnemi Reseyge tәueldilik jaghdayda ústaydy. Shynyn aitqanda, tәuelsizdigimizge túsau bolyp túrghan osy til problemasy. Osy faktor kórshi el azamattary ýshin beyimdeludi jenildetui mýmkin. Sonymen qatar, búl úzaq merzimdi perspektivada memlekettik tilding damuyna keri әser etui mýmkin degen alandaushylyq túghyzuda. Sondyqtan kóshi-qon sayasaty tek ekonomikalyq túrghydan ghana emes, mәdeny jәne tildik aspektilerdi de eskerui tiyis.

Qoghamda kóterilip jatqan keybir súraqtardyng biri – eki el arasyndaghy jolaushy tasymalyn uaqytsha toqtatu mýmkindigi.

Teoriyalyq túrghydan alghanda, kez kelgen memleket óz shekarasyn baqylaugha jәne qajet jaghdayda shekteu qoygha qúqyly. Búl halyqaralyq tәjiriybede bar: pandemiya kezinde kóptegen elder shekarasyn japty, qauipsizdik maqsatynda vizalyq rejimder engizildi, kóshi-qon aghyndaryn retteu ýshin kvotalar qoldanyldy.

Alayda, Qazaqstan men Resey arasyndaghy qarym-qatynas erekshe. Eki el Euraziyalyq ekonomikalyq odaqqa mýshe, shekarasy әlemdegi eng úzyn qúrlyqtyq shekaralardyng biri, tarihi, ekonomikalyq jәne mәdeny baylanystary tyghyz.

Sondyqtan jolaushy tasymalyn tolyq toqtatu – tek tótenshe jaghdayda ghana qarastyrylatyn qadam.

Tolyq shekteu qoydyng ornyna, Qazaqstan ýshin neghúrlym tiyimdi joldar bar: aitar bolsaq, arnayy kvotalar engizu, uaqytsha tirkeu jýiesin kýsheytu, sheteldik júmysshylargha rúqsat beru talaptaryn naqtylau, kelushilerdi halyq tyghyz ornalasqan ónirlerge jolatpau, til ýiretu, zandardy týsindiru, әleumettik beyimdeu sharalaryn úiymdastyru.

Qazaqstangha Reseyden jappay kóshi-qon bolady degen pikir tolyqtay negizsiz deuge bolmaydy, degenmen onyng kólemi men auqymy әsirelenip aitylyp jatyr. Alayda, kóshi-qon problemasy strategiyalyq túrghydan manyzdy.

Jolaushy tasymalyn tolyq toqtatu – tym radikaldy shara. Onyng ornyna aqyldy retteu, tiyimdi basqaru jәne ashyq aqparat sayasaty әldeqayda nәtiyjeli bolmaq.

Eng negizgisi, týsinistik pen salqynqandylyq boluy qajet. Sebebi kez kelgen memleket ýshin túraqtylyq – eng ýlken qúndylyq.

Beysenghazy Úlyqbek,

Qazaqstan Jurnalister Odaghynyng mýshesi

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