Eng bastysy, tengemen jәne bizben ne bolady?

Ázirge eshbir el jauapkershilik almaghan shabuyldardan keyin, Kaspiy qúbyry konsorsiumynyng Qara tenizdegi múnay qúyatyn qúrylghysyna eshbir tanker jaqyndamay túr. Al Qazaqstan toqtamay múnay shygharuda jәne ony tankerge qúimasa bolmaydy. Qúimasa, óndiristi bayaulatu kerek. Al biraz uaqyt ótip ketse, onda skvajinalardy jabu kerek bolady. Ony qayta ashu óte qiyn.

KTK Qazaqstan múnay eksportynyng shamamen 80 payyzyn tasitynyn bilesizder. Qúbyr arqyly Teniz, Qashaghan jәne Qarashyghanaq múnayy Novorossiysk manyndaghy teniz terminalyna jetkizilip, ary qaray tankerlerge qúiylyp, Qara Teniz – Jerorta tenizi tizbegimen Italiyagha ketedi.

2025 jyly KTK-gha Teniz kenishi 36,6 million tonna, Qashaghan – 17 million tonna, Qarashyghanaq – 9,2 million tonna múnay qúidy. Búl jylyna 62,8 million tonna. Tәuligine jәne barrelige shaqsaq – ótken jyly biz tәuligine Resey arqyly jýretin búl qúbyrgha 1,26 million barreli múnay qúiyp keldik. Ol toqtamay jýru ýshin tankerler kezekte túryp, múnayymyzdy Qara tenizde ózine qúiyp alyp ketui kerek. Endi tankerler kelmese, biz qanshagha shydaymyz degen súraq tuyndaydy. Men osyghan jauap izdedim.

Tankersiz bir-eki tәulikte múnay óndiru jalghasady, qúbyrdaghy aghys saqtalady. Óndirilgen múnay ken oryndarynyn, nasos stansiyalarynyng jәne terminaldyng rezervuarlaryna jinala bastaydy. Iri ken ornyn toqtatu su shýmegin jabumen birdey emes. Tenizde múnay óndiru gaz óndeu, qysymdy retteu, gazdy qaytadan qabatqa aidau jәne kompressorlyq jabdyqtardyng júmysymen baylanysty. Qashaghanda kýkirtsutegi joghary múnay men gaz asa kýrdeli tehnologiyalyq siklden ótedi. Ken ornyn tolyq toqtatu jәne qayta iske qosu óndiristik, tehnikalyq әri ekologiyalyq tәuekelderdi kóbeytedi. Sondyqtan kompaniyalar shamamen eki kýnnen keyin óndiristi bayaulatady. Tek saqtau mýmkindigi tausylghan kezde ghana únghymalardyng bir bóligin toqtatugha kóshedi.

Bizde rezervuar bar ma?

«QazTransOyldyn» el aumaghyndaghy rezervuarlyq parkining syiymdylyghy 1,4 million tekshe metrge juyq. Búl shamamen 1,15–1,2 mln tonna múnaygha ten. Rezervuarlar Atyrau, Aqtau, Atasu, Pavlodar, Shymkent jәne basqa da múnay aidau stansiyalarynda ornalasqan. KTK-nyng Novorossiysk manyndaghy terminalynda jalpy syiymdylyghy shamamen 1 mln tonna bolatyn iri rezervuarlyq park bar. Onda әrqaysysy 100 myng tekshe metrlik on rezervuar ornalasqan. TShO, NCOC jәne KPO kompaniyalarynyng da óz tehnologiyalyq rezervuarlary bar. Biraq olardyng naqty bos kólemi ashyq jariyalanbaydy. Biraq, búl dәl qazir 2 million tonna múnay saqtay alatyn bos ornymyz bar ekenin bildirmeydi.

KTK terminalynyng rezervuarlary Resey aumaghynda ornalasqan. Olar tankerlerge tieu aldynda múnaydy uaqytsha jinaugha arnalghan jәne qalypty júmys kezinde bos túrmaydy. Al, QazTransOyl rezervuarlary elding әr ónirine shashyrap ornalasqan. Olardyng bәri Teniz, Qashaghan jәne Qarashyghanaq múnayyn dereu qabylday almaydy. Onymen birge, búl rezervuarlarda ýnemi múnay bolady. Olar sorttardy bóluge jәne aralastyrugha, qúbyrlar men zauyttardyng túraqty júmysyn qamtamasyz etuge paydalanylady. Rezervuardy qauipsizdik talaptaryna baylanysty jýz payyzgha deyin de toltyrugha bolmaydy.

Dәl osy jaghdayda biz qansha kýn shyday alamyz?

Standartty rejimde biz KTK-gha tәuligine 1,2 million barreli jiberip túrghanymyzdy jәne rezervuar boyynsha qazirgi ahualymyzdy eskersek, biz tankersiz 4-5 tәulik qana shyday alamyz. Odan keyin óndiristik problemalar bastalady.

Osy kezde tenge ózin qalay sezinbek?

KTK tәuekeli tek múnay kompaniyalarynyng mәselesi emes. Eng qiyny, ol valuta naryghyna da shok jaghdayyn alyp kele alady. Qazaqstan múnaydy dollargha satady. Eksporttan týsken valutanyng bir bóligi salyq tóleu ýshin tengege aiyrbastalady, qazaqstandyq júmysshylar men merdigerlerge tólenedi, Últtyq qorgha týsedi, kvaziymemlekettik sektor men otandyq aksionerlerding tabysyna ainalady. KTK arqyly eksport toqtasa, elge týsetin eksporttyq dollar azayady. Al importtaushylargha shetelden tauar, tehnika, dәri-dәrmek, telefon, avtomobili jәne jabdyq satyp alu ýshin dollar bәribir búrynghyday qajet. Nәtiyjesinde valuta naryghynda dollar úsynysy qysqaryp, súranys saqtalady. Búl tengeni әlsiretetini anyq. Oghan qatarlasa, kvaziymemlekettik sektordan valutalyq vyruchkanyng jartysyn satu boyynsha mindet alynyp tastaldy.

Búl endi tankerlik krizisting qanshagha sozylatynyna tikeley baylanysty. Eger lokdaun aptalargha sozylsa, devalivasiyalyq kýtuler kýsheyip, halyq pen biznes dollar satyp alugha kirisedi. Sonda psihologiyalyq súranys naqty eksporttyq shyghynnan da kýshti әser etui mýmkin. Úzaq uaqyt boyy múnay eksportynyng ornyn valutalyq intervensiyamen jabu mýmkin emes. Biz rezervterimizdi jaghyp jiberemiz.

2025 jyly Qazaqstannyng syrtqy sauda ainalymy 143,9 mlrd dollar boldy. Onyng ishinde eksport shamamen 79 mlrd dollar, import shamamen 64,9 mlrd dollar kóleminde qalyptasyp, bizge jaghymdy sauda profisiyti 14 mlrd dollardan asty. Eger KTK bir ay tolyq toqtap, balama marshruttar joghalghan kólemning az ghana bóligin qabyldasa, eksport shamamen 3–3,5 mlrd dollargha tómendeui yqtimal. Al import azaymaydy. Dýkender, kәsiporyndar men halyq búryn jasalghan kelisimsharttar boyynsha shetel tauarlaryn satyp ala beredi. Sondyqtan bir ailyq tolyq toqtau jyldyq sauda profisiytining shamamen tórtten birin jep qongy mýmkin. Eki-ýsh ailyq úzaq daghdarys kezinde, múnay baghasy men import kólemi ózgermeydi dep eseptesek, Qazaqstannyng 14 mlrd dollarlyq sauda profisiytining basym bóligi joghaluy yqtimal.

Sauda balansy tek tauar eksportyn jәne importyn kórsetedi. Al aghymdaghy shotqa qyzmetter, investisiyalyq kirister, payyzdar, diviydendter jәne transfertter de kiredi. Qazaqstannyng 2025 jylghy aghymdaghy shoty 12,5 mlrd dollar tapshylyqpen jabyldy. 2026 jyldyng birinshi toqsanynda aghymdaghy shot tapshylyghy 2 mlrd dollar boldy, al tauar saudasynyng profisiyti 4,1 mlrd dollardy qúrap, bir jylda 15,7 payyzgha azaydy. Yaghny Qazaqstannyng syrtqy tólem jýiesi KTK daghdarysyna deyin-aq minsiz jaghdayda bolghan joq. Saudadan profisit alamyz, biraq sheteldik investorlardyng diviydendteri, qyzmet importy jәne basqa tólemder sol profisitting edәuir bóligin syrtqa shygharady.

Biz múnaydy birshama óndiremiz, alayda ony úzaq saqtay almaymyz. Qúbyr bar, biraq onyng tenizdegi songhy nýktesi jabylsa, býkil óndiristik jýie birneshe kýn ishinde qinalyp ketedi. Teniz kenishining manyna alyp rezervuar salatyn uaqyt jetken siyaqty. Basqa amal joq.

Aybar Oljaev

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