Diagnoz: Reseyding Ishki Jiyntyq Ónimining ósu qarqyny jylma jyl  qúldyrap keledi.  Reseyding ishki jiyntyq ónimi 2015 kalendarlyq jyly 3.8-4% ke  tómendedi. Aldaghy uaqytta Reseyding dýniyejýzilik ekonomikalyq potensialy úzaq merzimde tómendey bermek. Aytalyq, kórshimiz Dýnie jýzilik valuta qorynyng jәne BÚÚ baghalauynsha 2013 jyly damyghan memleketter arasynda toghyzynshy, 2014 jyly – onynshy, 2015 jyly onbirinshi  oryngha týsti. [1]

Reseyding Ishki Jiyntyq Ónimining ósu qarqyny jylma jyl  qúldyrap keledi. Qaranyz

IJÓ ósimi                    2007     2008    2009   2010     2011       2012     2013     2014     2015

%                                8,5       5,2      -7,8        4,5       4,3            3,4       1,3          0,6     -3,9

Aldaghy eki-ýsh jylda Resey ekonomikasy quatty elder qatarynan qalyp ortang qol, ólkelik derjavalyq   memleket qataryna kiredi. Batys elder birlestigi – Evropalyq Odaq (28 memleket) jәne AQSh pen Kanada, Avstraliya men Japoniya , taghy birqatar memleket Reseyge tisin qayrap sanksiya salyp  otyr. Songhy uaqytqa deyin batys memleketter aliyansy qatarynda Týrkiya joq edi. Týrkiya bolsa Batys aliyansty tek әskery jaghynan qoldap Reseyge qarsy ekonomikalyq sanksiyalardy qoldamaghan edi. Resey men Týrkiya arasyndaghy songhy dýrdarazdyqtan keyin  Týrkiya sayasatyn kýrt ózgertti. Endi eki memleket arasynda is jýzinde ekonomikalyq  qatynastar shiylenesude.

Orystyng bas auruynyng ýsh sebebi bar. Birinshi sebebi, ekonomikalyq reforma jasamaushylyq. Ekinshi sebebi, militarizasiya. Ýshinshi sebep, geoekonomikalyq daghdarys múnay baghasynyng úzaq merzimge qúlauy. Tórtinshi sebep, Reseyding qas jauy bar – ol Batys elder qauymdastyghy. Sonymen 1990-shy jyldary Reseyde  naryqtyq reformalarynyng iydeology Egor Gaydar jýieli reformalaryn bastaghan bolatyn. Biraq reformalar qarqyny jalghaspady. 2008 jylghy daghdarysty  Resey finanstyq qorlar men múnay qarjylaryn әserli  paydalanu jolymen  jendi. Sol daghdarystan keyin Putin reformalardyng Reseyge keregi shamaly dep úqty. Putin Reseydi militarizm jolyna týsirdi, әskery budjetti kýrt ósirdi. Putin 2007 jyly Munhen qalasynda Batys aliyans elderine qarsy  Ekinshi Qyrghy Qabaq soghysyn  bastady. Esterinizge salayyn Birinshi  Qyrghy Qabaq soghysy 1946 jylghy  Fultondaghy  Uinston Cherchilidin  sózinen keyin bastalaghan  bolatyn jәne sol soghystyng ayaqtaluy KSRO-nyng qúlauymen ayatalghan.[3]  Sol soghystyng nәtiyjesinde KSRO-nyng Odaq respublikalary egemen boldy.

Múnaydyng baghasynyng kýrt qúlauy barlyq Resey memleketining әleumettik baghadarlamalarynyng oryndaluyn ekitalay qyldy. Putin avanturist qayratker bolyp shyqty. Ol tamasha taktiyk, biraq nashar strateg. Reseyding Ukrainagha shabuyl jasauy Reseyding iri masshtabty daghdarsqa úshyraghanyn kórsetti. Osy tústa Preziydentimiz Nazarbaevtyng diplomatiyalyq ailakerligin atap ótken jón bolar. Reseyding soqqysyn  Ukraina toytardy. 2008 jylghy Reseyding Gruziyagha shabuylyna Batys aliyansy arasha bola almady. Biraq Ukrainanyng jóni bólek edi. Batys elderi Ukrainagha ekonomikalyq jәne diplomatiyalyq qoldau jasady. Solay Ukraina Krym men Donesk pen Luganskiden aiyrylsa da agressorgha qarsy túra aldy. Putinning esebi boyynsha Batys elderine auyzbirshilik jetpeu kerek edi. Batys elderi Resey gazy men múnayyna tәueldi edi. Sol jaghadaydy paydalanyp Resey Ukrainany tize býktiru josparlaghan bolatyn. Biraq Resey jospary iske aspay qaldy.

Orystyng myqtylyghy men osaldyghy. Evropalyq halyqtardyng ishinde sany jaghynan azayyp jatsa da Reseyde  111 millionday orys bar. Orystyng bilim dәrejesi de joghary, basym kópshiligi otanshyl, ruhaniyatshyl, imperiyashyl. Jeti atasy Qazaqstanda  túrsa da qazaqsha ýirengisi joq. Orys dinine de berik, orys pravoslaviyasy Mәskeuge ghana baghynady, orys bóten elde túrmyn demeydi , osynda túryp imperiyalyq mýddelerdi qorghaydy. Bizding oiymyzsha  orys adamy tym imperiyashyl, zaman ózgerdi demey postkenestik memleketterdi bodan el dep biledi. Putin KSRO emes  Resey imperiyasyn janghyrtpaq. Orys myqty, imperiya ýshin qiyndyqqa tózbek, biraq orystyng qiyndyqty tózu qasiyeti sheksiz emes. Orys mort últ. 1917 jyldyng aqpanynda ózi jenip kele jatqan  Birinshi Dýnie Jýzilik soghystyng songhy kezenining auyrlyghyna  tóze almady. 1917 jyly Patsha Ýkimetin qúlatty, sol jyly Qazan tónkerisi boldy. Resey imperiyasy ydyrady. Biraq orys tez esin jiyatyn úiymshyl halyq. 1920-1955 jyldary búryn sondy bolmaghan imperiya –KSRO-ny ayaqqa túrghyzdy. Orys últy sol jyldary adam jәne qarjy shyghynyna qaramady, degenine jetti.  1990-shy jyldardaghy daghadarystan aiyghyp endi býgin orys qaytadan Orys imperiyasyn qalpyna keltirmek.

Qazaqtyng myqtylyghy men osal tústary. Qazaq basynan keshken nәubetterden tarihy qysqa merzimde esin jidy. Býgingi tanda qazaq 11.5 mln. Búryn búl sangha qazaq eshqashan jetpegen. Qazaq egemendikke jetti. Jәne óz elinde 70%. Basyna qater tóngende qazaq kórshi elderde pana izdeydi, biraq bara kele óz eline qaytyp keledi. Qazaq gomogendi , óz ózine berik , jabyq halyq. Pәlendey basqa últtarmen nekelese bermeydi. Qazaq basqa últtar men memleketterding proekterine bara bermeydi. Aytalyq, Reseyde 740 mynday qazaq bar , biraq olar  Reseyding mәdeniy-ruhani, biznes –sayasi, t.b. sharalaryna qyzyqpaydy da  ilespeydi de, reti kelse atamekenge tartady.

Bizding elitagha keybir  orys aurulary júgha bastaghan siyaqty. Biz reformalardy 1990-shy jyldardaghy sәtti qarqynnan keyin  tamamdadyq, ekonomikany diyversifikasiyalaghan joqpyz, monopolizasiyagha jol berdik. Biz orys siyaqty korrupsiyadan qalyspadyq, búl sәtsizdikterdi jibergen orys tildi qazaq elitasy  boldy. Solay múnay qúldyraghanda tenge de qúldyrady. Biraq bizde ýmit joq emes, bar. Endi qaytadan reformalardy qolgha alu kerek.

Erteng ne isteymiz? Resey ekonomikalyq daghdarystan sayasy jәne әleumettik daghadarysqa úshyraydy. Olay bolsa Batys aliyansy Reseydi túqyrtpay qoymaydy. Resey daghadarysqa týskende biz daghadarystan shyghuymyz kerek. Resey daghdarysy kelesi 10-17 aida shynyna jetedi. Biraq Resey bizge shabuyl jasauy mýmkin. Olargha «korotkaya pobedonosnaya voyna» kerek, shabuyl obektisi  Qazaqstan boluy kerek. Osy tústa últ pen elita birligi qajet bolady. Tek qana Resey kýiregen tústa biz demokratyalanuymyz mýmkýn. Eng bastysy bizde Reseymen birge últtyq daghdarysqa týspeuimiz kerek. Ekinshi, biz Batys aliyansy baghytynda , Reseyden saq, Qytaymen  jan-jaqty qatynasta bolghanymyz jón.

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1.https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki

2. http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/pubdocs/publicdoc/2015/9/136351443562971021/rer34-rus.pdf; Avstraliya vvela dopolniytelinye sanksiy protiv Rossiy www.tvc.ru:8021/news/show/id/48967 - 2014 j. 01 qyr. - Ranee, pomimo Avstralii, sanksiy na Rossii nalojily SShA, strany Evrosoyza, Kanada, Yaponiya

3. Azimbay Galy Itogy Pervoy mirovoy "Holodnoy voyny". Nachalo Vtoroy mirovoy "Holodnoy voyny": bitva za Ukrainu.08.02.2014 centrasia.ru

Ázimbay Ghali, sayasattanushy

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