Álemde ózgelermen terezesi teng boludy  damudyng sara jolyna týsudi kózdemeytin nemese óz qatarynyng arasynan suyrylyp shyghyp, aryndap algha ketken myqtylardyng ortasyna qosyludy kóksemeytin birde-bir memleket joq desek, artyq aitqandyq emes.

Mine, dәl osy túrghydan kelgende, halqymyzdyng «jayaudyng shany shyqpas, jalghyzdyng aty shyqpas» nemese «qalauyn tapsa, qar janar» degen ataly sózderining bosqa aitylmaghanyna jәne kez kelgen subektinin, jatpay-túrmay izdense, ózine kómek qolyn sozugha yqylasty әriptesti mindetti týrde taba alatynyna kóz jetkizemiz. Múnyng dәleli retinde óz elimizding útymdy tәjiriybesi men taghylymy aldymyzdan shyghady.

Mәselen, ekonomikalyq jәne ózge de әleuetterin ýzdiksiz óristetu maqsatynda, Qazaqstan býgin geosayasy túrghydan kýlli әlemge tanymal, irgetasy myqty birneshe halyqaralyq qarjy jәne bank institutarymen [Dýniyejýzilik bank, Halyqaralyq valuta qory, Halyqaralyq Qayta qúru jәne damu banki, Halyqaralyq qarjy korporasiyasy, Europa Qayta qúru jәne damu banki, Aziya Damu banki, Islam Damu banki] tyghyz baylanys ornatyp, olardyng saraptamalyq zertteu ortalyqtarynyng qyzmetin de belsendi týrde paydalanyp otyr.

Elimizding nazarynda bolugha tiyisti ózge de halyqaralyq nysandardyng biri, biri emes, biregeyi – abyroy-ataghy әlemge jayylghan jekemenshik «Stratfor» («Stratfor») barlau-saraptamalyq ortalyghy. Búl nysannyng negizin 1996 jyly amerikalyq sayasattanushy, súnghyla strateg Djordj Fridman qalaghan bolatyn. Kәsiby túrghydan óte myqty mamandandyrylghan búl ortalyq tayau nemese úzaq merzimdi bolashaqta halyqaralyq qatynastar men әlemdik geosayasat vektorlarynyng qalay qúbylatynyn dóp basyp, dәl anyqtap qana qoymay, sheberligi shyndalghan sarapshy mamandarynyng kәsiby biligining arqasynda býkil әlem ghana emes, kez kelgen elding keshegi jәne býgingi bolmysy men kýlli saladaghy әleuetin sol elding ishki ashyq aqparat kózderimen qatar, kýlli әlem qorjynynda jinaqtalghan san aluan derek kózderining negizinde taldap-tarazylap alyp, óte múqiyat sýzgiden ótkizgen son, sol elding bolashaghyna qatysty futuristik súnghyla boljamdar jasaydy. Búl túrghydan kelgende, atalghan ortalyq býgingi tanda aldyna jan salmaydy deuge layyq. Múnyng naqty dәleli retinde «Stratfor» kompaniyasynyng 1990-2015 jyldar aralyghynda jasaghan ondaghan futuristik boljamdarynyng mýlt ketpegenin erekshe atap ótken jón.

Atap aitqanda, «Stratfor» barlau-saraptamalyq ortalyghy Ontýstik-Shyghys Aziya memleketterinde 1995-2005 jyldar aralyghynda oryn alghan qarjy daghdarysy, 2000 jyldardyng basynda, aldymen AQSh-ta bastalyp, sonynda Europa aimaghyn kýiretken qarjy daghdarysy, 2005 jyldan bas­tap, «Ál-Kaidanyn» bas kóterip, Tayau Shyghys elderinde jihadtyq terrorizmning beleng alatyny jәne onyng 2009-2014 jyldar aralyghynda Arabstangha jayyluy, 2014 jyly Levant (Kipr, Mysyr, Irak, Izraili, Iordaniya, Liviya, Palestina, Siriya) memleketterinde radikaldyq jәne ekstremistik toptardyng kýshengi, sol siyaqty, Iranda, TMD elderinde, Saud Arabiyasy men IYemen arasynda, Argentinada, Ispaniyada, Meksikada, Shyghys Afrikada jәne Grekiyada oryn alatyn shiyelenister men daghdarystardy aldyn ala dәl boljaghan.

Sondyqtan da bolar, búl ortalyq qazirding ózinde 175 memleketpen jәne onyng syrtynda, eng irgeli 500 transúlttyq korporasiyalarmen de, sonday-aq, irgeli halyqaralyq qarjy instituttarymen de tereng әriptestik ornatyp alghan. Sonymen qatar, «Stratfor» býkil planetany óz nazarynyng fokusynda ústap otyr deuge de negiz bar. Sebebi, Jer sharyn geografiyalyq aimaqtargha bólip-bólip tastap, әr aimaqty óz jauapkershiligine alghan joghary bilikti, kәsiby mamandar әlemning 29 tilinde is jýrgize alady jәne óz obektilerine qatysty saraptamalyq qyzmet týrlerin shegine jetkize iygerip, ortaq kәsipterin ýlken sheberlikpen dóngeletip otyr.

2015 jyly «Stratfordan» ketse de, Djordj Fridman, kóp úzamay, qazirgi adam aitqysyz ýlken jyldamdyqpen damyp kele jatqan zamanauy aqparat tehnologiyalarynyng mýmkindikterin tolyq paydalana otyryp, tayau bolashaqqa tәn, biraq jahandyq mәni bar geosayasy uaqighalar men qúbylystar tizbegine saraptamalyq barlau jasap berudi maqsat tútqan «Geopolitical Futures» («Geosayasy bolashaq») atty jana konsalting-basylym kompaniyasyn iske qosty. Búl kompaniya da «Stratformen» teng týspese, kem týspeydi. Tipti, artyqshylyghy da joq emes. Mәselen, búl jana ortalyq óz ónimderine aldyn ala súranys bergen subektilerdi onlayn tәsilimen der kezinde qamtamasyz etuge qauqarly.

Dj.Fridman, sonymen qatar, «New York Times» gazetining eng joghary sanattaghy avtorlarynyng biri. Onyng qalamynan 2009 jyly jaryq kórgen «Kelesi 100 jyl» («The Next 100 Years») atty futuristik monografiya­sy kýni býginge deyin kýlli әlemde ýlken súranysqa iye. Óitkeni, 1996 jyldan bermen qaray, «Stratfordyn» әlgi monografiyagha toptastyrghan siynergiyalyq sintezderi bәsekege asa qabiletti AQSh, Kanada, Qytay, Japoniya, Úlybritaniya, Germaniya, Fransiya, Avstraliya syndy oza shapqan memleketterding bolashaghyna qatysty tereng saraptamalyq boljamdarmen qatar, býgingi tanda aituly qarqynmen damyp kele jatqan Meksika, Braziliya, Argentina, Ýndistan, Týrkiya, Resey, sonday-aq, Shyghys Europa, Balqan, Tayau Shyghys, Kavkaz, Afrika jәne Orta Aziya memleketterining (onyng ishinde Qazaqstan da bar) de tayau bola­shaq­taghy geosayasy mýddeleri men tarihi, ekonomikalyq, әleumettik, tehno­logiyalyq, әskery jәne demografiyalyq әleuetterining qalay ózgeretinin de tap basyp, tarazylap qoyghan.

Dj.Fridmannyng keyingi on jyl aralyghynda jaryq kórgen kitaptaryna [«Coghystyng bolashaghy: Biylik, tehnologiya jәne Amerikanyng XXI ghasyrdaghy әlemdik ýstemdigi» («The Future of War: Power, Technology and American World Dominance in the Twenty-First Century»), 1996; «Bar­laudyng shebi» («The Intelligence Edge»),1997; «Amerikanyng qúpiya soghy­sy» («America’s Secret War»), 2004; «Kelesi on jyl» («The Next Jelade»), 2011; «Shiyelenis oshaqtary: Euro­pagha tónip kele jatqan daghdarys» (Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe»), 2015] jete mәn bermeuge bol­maydy. Óitkeni, búl enbekterin qay-qaysysy da jogharyda atalghan «Stratfor» barlau-saraptamalyq ortalyghynyng sýzgisinen ótip, ekshelgen sintezge túnyp túr. Tipti, búl sipat olardyng ataularynan da aiqyn seziledi jәne ol kitaptarda bizdermen qarym-qatynas jasap otyrghan alys-jaqyn kórshilerimizben qatar, әriptesterimizge qatysty derek kózderi de jetip artylady.

Ádil AHMETOV,

Qazaqstannyng enbek sinirgen qayratkeri

Týpnúsqadaghy taqyryp: HHI ghasyr. Futuristing kózimen

Derekkózi: "Egemen Qazaqstan" gazeti