Jaghrafiyalyq ornalasuy Týrkiyanyng basty mýmkindigi. Aziya, Afrika jәne Europa qúrlyqtarymen tútasyp jatqan, Qara, Marmar, Egey, Jerorta tenizderine oranghan, strategiyalyq manyzy zor Bosfor búghazyn uysyna alghan, batysy europa órkeniyetimen, ontýstigi arap-parsy, shyghysy týrki, soltýstigi slavyan әlemimen shektesetinTýrkiyagha qyzygha da, qyzghana da qaraytyndar jeterlik. Búl erekshe jaghrafiyalyq kenistik – Týrkiyagha ýlken mýmkindikter syilaumen qatar, әlemdik geosayasy qúbylmaly oiyndarda tosyn qauip-qater de tóndirip túratyny shyndyq. Týrkiya - Shyghysty Batysqa jaqyndata alatyn manyzdy ótkel. Batys pen Shyghys arasyndaghy órkeniyetter qaqtyghysynyng ekpinin bәsendetep, sýzgiden ótkizer tospaly beket ispetti. Osynday erekshe geografiyalyq mýmkindikter Ankaranyng Euraziya geosayasy kenistigindegi strategiyalyq ornyn bekemdey týsude.

Songhy jyldardaghy әlemdik sayasi, ekonomikalyq qúbylystar Týrkiyany da ainalyp ótken emes. Ásirese Kurd mәselesi, diny senim-nanym jәne kisilik qúqyq t.b. mәselede mizedi, Erdoghan men Batys arasyndaghy kelispeushilik Týrkiyagha ekonomikalyq sanksiya salugha deyin jetkizse, әlemdi sharpyghan pandemiya da negizgi tabys kózi bolghan turiziymine ýlken soqqa boldy. Nәtiyjesinde óndiris oshaqtary qysqaryp, júmyssyzdyq kóbeydi, zat baghasy sharyqtap, liranyng qúny ýsh ese arzandady, halaqtyng tútynu óresi tómendedi, ekonomikalyq ósui toqtap, toqyraugha bet aldy. Erdoghan biyligine narazylar qarasy kóbeye týsti. Milliondaghan Siriya men Aughan bosqyndaryn qabyldaghan Ankara biyligining «jalpaqshesheyligi» de ishki narazylar sanyn kóbeyter faktorlardyng birine ainaluda. Keler jyly Týrkiya respublikasynyng ghasyrlyq datasy, әri kezekti preziydenttik saylau jyly. Erdoghannyng Ádilet jәne Damu partiyasyna qarsy tórt partiyadan qúrylghan aliyans aldaghy saylaudyng kórigin qyzdyra týspek. Olar saylauda Erdoghandy jenetinderine senimdi. Qysqasy dәl qazirgi Týrkiyanyng ishki sayasy hәm ekonomikalyq jaghdayy mәz emes.

Erdoghan ýshin alda túrghan ishki mәselelerdi sheship, kedergilerdi tolyq ensere almasa qalyptasqan halqaralyq hәm aimaqtyq geosayasatta Týrkiyanyng últtyq mýddesining salmaghyn arttyru, qauipsizdigine basa mәn beru, geosayasy tartystar men ózgeristerden ekonomikalyq, әri sayasy tiyimdilikterge qol jetkizu bolmaq. Búl Erdoghan ýshin ýlken tarihy mýmkindikter bolmaq. Osy maqsatta, ol qyruar júmystardy enserip, batyl qadamdargha baruda. Búnyng keler jylghy saylauda jeniske jetuine kepil bolary belgili.

Týrkiya júmriyaty ýshin «jarghaq qúlaghy jastyqqa tiymey» jýrgen, bolmysy kýresker, ór minezdi R.Erdoghannyng ótkergen negizgi geosayasy qareket auqymyn jinaqtar bolsaq bylay tizuge bolatyn siyaqty:

1. Siriyanyng soltýstigine әsker engizbek. Ankara biyligi Siriyanyng soltýstigindegi Kurd qaruly jasaqtaryn Týrkiya qauipsizdigine qater tóndirushi kýsh retinde sanap, shekara asyp, olargha әlsin-әlsin jazalau operasiyalaryn jýrgizip keledi. Týrkiya «qauipsizdigi» ýshin Siriyagha әsker kirgizudi josparlaghanmen, oghan AQSh pen Europanyng týsinistigi kerek bolghandy. Erdoghannyng osy ótinishine Europa men AQSh ong qabaq tanytqanymen is jýzindegi qoldauy jetkiliksiz kýiinde qalyp keledi.

Siriyagha әsker kirgizu ýshin de Putinmen kelisuge tura keldi. Olar «terrorgha» qarsy kýres - ortaq mýddelerde sәikesetinine uaghdalasqany aityluda. Tamyzdaghy Sochiydegi kezdesuinde búl taqyryp tolyq sheshilgen boluy bek mýmkin.

Siriyagha әsker engizude, aimaq qauipsizdigine mýddeli Izrailimen de kelisip aludy jón kórse kerek, ony onshaqty jyl búryn Pәlestin halqyna arasha týsuden tughan aradaghy arazdyqty doghara túru maqsatynda, Ankara SIM-in Teli-Avivke jibergeninen angharugha bolady. Qysqasy, Erdoghan biyligi Siriyanyng soltýstigine, eki elding ortaq shekarasynda, kurdter ornalasqan aimaqta, eni otyz shaqyrymdyq bos aralyq ornatudy kózdeydi. Biraq ta aty shekara qauipsizdigi bolghanymen, týp maqsaty Siriyadan Týrkiyagha ótetin energiya qúbyr jobasynyng qauipsizdigi bolsa kerek. Ekonomikalyq mәni zor, energiya logstikalyq búl jobanyng Ankara ýshin manyzy óte zor ekeni anyq. Tabighy resurstardy Siriyadan Týrkiya jeri arqyly Jerorta tenizimen Europagha tasymaldaytyn jobanyng qauipsizdigi ýshin Siriyaning soltýstigindegi Kurd qaruly kýshterin auyzdyqtaugha tura keledi. Týrkiyanyng yqtimal operesiyasyna Batystyng týsinistik tanytuy da energiyalyq mýddelerine dóp kelgendikten boluy mýmkin. Yaghny búl Europany Resey energiyasyna balama energiyamen qamtamasyz etudi kózdegen joba retinde sanalsa kerek. Osy joldaghy kedergilerdi joi jolyndaghy Erdoghannyng sayasy taktikalyq jýristeri birtindep jyljyu ýstinde. Búl jobagha kóptegen taraptar da mýddeli;

2. Kaspiy tenizi resurstary týrki dýniyesining ózara yqpalyn arttyrmaq. Kaspiy energiya logistikalyq jobasyndaghy Týrkiyanyng salmaghy ótken shiyrek ghasyrda jenil boldy. Nazarbaev jýiesi barlyq jyly-júmsaqtardy Kremli qojayynynyng óneshine salyp keldi. Yaghni, tek múnay eksportymyzdyng 80%-y Resey jeri arqyly Europagha ótetin jýie ornaghan. Býgingidey geosayasy tartys kezinde, Kremli osy múnay qúbyrymyzdy ózimizge qarsy bopsa retinde qoldanuda. Búdan shyghar jalghyz jol – qazaq energiyasyn eksporttaudyng balama joldaryn jedel qarastyru. Mine osy strategiyalyq jobanyng manyzdy bóligin Kaspiy múnayyn Ázerbayjan-Gruziya arqyly Týrkiya jerimen Europagha jetkizu. Osy tarihy mýmkindik Erdoghangha búiyryp otyr. Osy jobany sәtti iske asyru arqyly Ankaranyng OA-daghy ekonomikalyq jәne sayasy salmaghy artyp, aimaq elderindegi yqpalyn kýsheytuge mýmkindik ala alady;

3. Qara tenizde toghysqan strategiyalyq mýddeler. Qara tenisdegi mýddeler qaqtyghysy Osman imperiyasy men Resey patyshalyghynan beri jalghasyp keledi. Býgingi R.Erdoghan men V.Putin búl tartysty zandy jalghastyrushylar deuge keledi. 19 ghasyrda, Qyrym týbegin uysynan shygharyp alghan Týrkiya ishtey tynumen kele jatqandy. Reseyding Ukrainge basqynshylyghy Ankara ýshin Kremli mýddesine qarsy qareket etuge mýmkindik tughyzuda. R.Erdoghan Ukraindy ashyq qoldap qana qoymay, Bayraktar TB2 úshaghyn úsyndy. Búl kýnde úshqyshsyz búl soghys ýshaghy basqynshylardyng zәreqútyn qashyrghan negizgi qarudyng birine ainalghan. Ekinshi jaghynan, ekonomikalyq, geosayasy eki jaqty ortaq mýddeler - Ankara men Mәskeuding baylanysyn ýzdirmes sebep ekeni taghy shyndyq. Soghys bastalysymen R.Erdoghan birden Resey kemelerin Bosfor búghazynan ótkizbeu arqyly Batystyng sanksiyasyna ýn qosty. Bayraqtar úshaghyn Ukrainge satu arqyly soghystaghy ústanymyn aiqyndady. Resey әskerining Qyrymdy qamtyghan Ukrain topyraghynan tolyq ketu kerek ekenin ashyq aitty. Ol, BÚÚ-men birlikte Ukrain astyghyn әlemge shygharu arqyly asharshylyqtyng aldyn alu, Resey basyp alghan Zaporojie AES-da tuyndaghan qater men yqtimal apat ýshin jantalasuda. Áriyne, soghysyp jatqan eki elge dәneker bolyp, Stanbuldy kelisóz minberi etken enbegi taghy bar. R.Erdoghannyng osy minezi Batystyng da kónilinen shyghyp jatqany bayqalady. Yaghni, Batys pen Resey arasyndaghy dәnekerlik roldy býginde osy R.Erdoghan ghana atqaruda. Qarymtasy, Qara teniz aimaghyndaghy qalyptasqan geosayasy aqual býginde Ankara ýshin taptyrmas tarihy mýmkindikterge ainalar týri bar. «Erdoghannyng Sochiydegi Putinmen kezdesui -Týrik elderin satyp ketui, Reseyding qúshaghyna enip kettui» degen uayymnyng negizsiz ekeni tayaudaghy R.Erdoghannyng ýlken delegatsiyasyn bastap Ukrainge jasaghan saparyda dәleldedi. Onda R.Erdoghan V.Zelenskiymen soghystan keyin Kiyev, Harkov siyaqty ýsh qalany qayta salyp shyghu turaly uaghdalastyq qújattargha qol qoydan tys, eng manyzdysy «Qyrymdy qamtyghan Ukrain jerinen Resey tolyq shyghu kerek, ondaghy әr uys topyraq tek Ukraindiki» dep taghy qaytalady. Mine búl R.Erdoghannyng ór minezi – óz minezi. Keshigi asqaq tarihty bar, býgingi mýmkindikterge zor, shәshilmaghan, sharshamaghan, ruhy ór oghúz úrpaghynyng azyp, әlsirep bara jatqan Resey qúshaghyna siya qoiy mýmkin emesti. Ániyne, R.Erdoghan ózining Siriyagha jasaytyn yqtimal operasiyasy ýshin taktikalyq túrghyda V.Putinmen sanasyp, kelisuge baratyny anyq. Jalpy alghanda, Týrkiya ózining últtyq mýddesi ýshin «saytanmen de» kelisimge bara alatyn, әlgi «mәngilik dostyqtan, mәngilik mýdde artyq» deytin, sony shynayy ómirde qoldana biletin irgeli memleket. Týp maqsaty týgel týrikterding basyn qosudy kókseytinine de kýmәn joq. Oghan kedergi Resey bolyp kele jatqanyn jadyda saqtaugha tiyistimiz...

4. Mýdde jolynda Iranmen til tabysu. Aymaqta Týrkiya men Iran yqpaldy elder. Eki el aralaryndaghy qatynas - bәsekege de, ymyragha da toly, әri jii qaytalanyp túratyn kýrdeli sipatqa iye. Irannyng geografiyalyq ornalasuy men bay energiyalyq resurstary, Parsy shyghanaghynyng logistikalyq patensiyaly, Siriyadaghy sayasi, әskery yqpaly, sonday-aq Kurd mәselelerinde Ankara Tegeranmen eseptespeuge sharasyz. Týrkiya Iran, tútas Parsy shyghanaghyndaghy energtya resurstardy Týrkiya territoriyasymen Jerorta tenizi arqyly Europagha tasymaldaugha niyetti. Ári Týrkiyanyng Siriyagha jasar yqtimal әskery is-qimyly ýshin týsinistik tanytuyn qalauda. Kurd mәselesinde de ortaq ústanymda boluyn tileydi. Qaytarymy ýshin Ankara Batys pen Tegeran ortasynda dәneker bolyp, Batystyng Irangha salghan sanksiyadaryn alyp tastaugha, Resey gazynyng ornyn basar balama jobada Iran energiya resursynyng manyzdy rol atqaruyna, ony Europagha tasugha kýsh shygharmaq. Osy maqsatty, tezdetip jýzege asyru ýshin R.Erdoghan Irangha saparlap ta qaytty. Eger Iran energiyasy Týrik jeri arqyly Europagha jeter kýn tuar bolsa, onda Ankaranyng ekonomikalyq, sayasy hәm qauymsizdik jaqtarynda útary mol bolmaq. Búl óz kezeginde R.Erdoghannyng abroyyn da asqaqtatpaq. Iske asuy qiynda-au bolsa da búl jobanyng Orta Aziya ýshin de qayyly bolar edi;

5. Real mýdde Saud Arabiyasymen tiltabystyruda. Týrkiya men Saud Arabiya arasynda Tayau Shyghys pen islam әleminedegi jetekshi oryngha degen bәseke býgin de jalghasyp keledi. Saud Arabiya sheyhterining Siriyada IGL-di qoldauy, Kurd jasaqtaryna býirek búruy, Týrkiya jerinde jornalshy Kashujiydi jauyzdyqpen óltirui R. Erdoghannyng jýikesine tiygeli qashan! Eki el arasyndaghy qalyptasqan kýrdeli aqualdy eskerip, Týrkiyanyng ishki jaghdayy men syrytqy mýddelerin saralay kele, Saud Arabiya biyligimen tiltabysudy sheshkeni bayqalady. Osy maqsatqa jetu ýshin de songhy jyldary Aq ýige salqyn qabaq tanytyp jýrgen Salman hanzadamen betpe-bet jolyghu ýshin, sәuir aiynda R.Erdoghan Saud Arabiyasyna ózi barghany belgili. Kózdegeni ókpe-nazdy qayyra túryp, aimaq tynyshtyghy men ekonomikalyq mýddelerge mәn beru bolghanymen, Ankaranyng Siriya soltýstigindegi Kurdtar yqpalyndaghy aimaqqa әsker engizu operasiyasyna qoldau súrau da manyzdy maqsaty bolghany anyq. Atalghan osy aimaqta tynyshtyq bolghan jaghdayda ghana Siriyadan týrik territoriyasy arqyly Jerorta tenizimen Europagha arap, parsy energiya resurstaryn qauypsiz jetkizuge bolady. Osylaysha Europa qúrlyghyn qamdaytyn Resey energiyasynyng ornyn almastyrugha tyryspaq. Búl jobanyng әsirese Týrkiya ýshin sayasy hәm ekonomikalyq paydasy shәsh etekten;

6. Izrailisyz Tayau Shyghysta beybitshilik ornamaydy. Iran men Izraili arasyndaghy jaulastyq aimaqtaghy qaterli isik. Iran men Saud Arabiya arasyndaghy alauyzdyq islam ýshin ghana emes, ónir damuy men tynyshtyghyna da keri әserin tiygizude. Siriyadan tartylar energiya qúbyrynyng qauypsizdigi ýshin de Izrailiding kónilin tabugha R. Erdoghan baryn salmaq. R.Erdoghan osydan onshaqty jyl búryp Palestin halqyna arasha týsip, Izrailimen arazdasqandy. Mine sol salqyndyqty týzeuge SIM-rin attandyrdy. Qalayda Siriyadaghy qauypsizdik pen jobalar ýshin týitkilderdi Izrailimen mýddelese sheshpey bolmaydy. Ol aimaq qauypsizdigi men energiyalyq jobalardyng sәtti iske asuy ýshin bәsekelesteri aldynda bir qadym keri sheginuge әrqashan әzer ekenin bayqatady. Siriyada júrgizer yqtimal әskery qimyly men Siriya arqyly arap-parsy energiya resurstaryn týrik jeri arqyly Jerorta tenizimen europagha tasymaldauda Izrailidyng týsinistik tanytuy R.Erdoghan ýshin asa manyzdy edi;

P.S: Batys ýshin basty mәsele – Reseyding europany gazben bopsalauy. Jәne Euraziya kenistiginde Resey, Iran jәne Siriyanyng Batysqa qarsy «odaghy». Osy týiindderdi sheshude Batys Týrkiyanyng mýmkindigin barynsha paydalanudy kózdeydi. Osy tarihy mýmkindikti paydalanyp, Euraziya qúrlyghynda qalyptasqan geosayasy hәm ekonomikalyq týiinderdi sheshude basty rol oinau, әriyne R.Erdoghannyng kóksegeni. Búl әriyne Týrkiya ýshin de tarihy mýmkindik. Sochiyge baryp Putinmen úzaq sóilesui qalyptasqan geosayasi, ekonomikalyq mәselelerdi talqylaudan tys, R.Erdoghannyng Batys aldyndaghy salmaghyn arttyru ýshin, Batystan әldebir qalaghanyna qol jetkizu ýshin әdeyi qúrylghan taktikalyq jýris ekeni anyq. R.Erdoghannyng shynayy beynesin tamyzdaghy Ukrainge barghan sapary kórsetti. R.Erdoghan V.Zelenskiyge «Resey basyp alghan bir sýiem jeri de Ukraindiki. Qyrymdy qamtyghan Ukrain jerinen basqynshylar tolyq ketui kerek» dedi. Mine búl R.Erdoghannyng ózi, әri sózi. Orta Aziyany ózek etken, Euraziya kenistiginde R.Erdoghan jetegindegi Ankaranyng atqarar ýlken isteri men asar asulary әli aldyda. Onyng búl geosayayasy strategiyalyq baghyttyn jalpy alghanda birinshi kezekte Batys qoldaytyny dәtke quat.

Baqan Berikjan

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