Vudro Vilison ortalyghynyng sarapshylary Reseyding Ortalyq Aziyadaghy yqpalynyng tómendeuimen birge, ónir elderining jana baghyttaryn talqylauda. Búl turaly Mezgil.kz aqparattyq portaly jazdy. 

Preziydent Djo Baydenning Qytay kóshbasshysy Sy Szinipinmen tabysty kelissózderi, AQSh-tyng batys jaghalauynda Aziya-Tynyq múhity elderining sammiyti ótui ‑ Qytay jәne ózge elderding Ortalyq Aziya ónirine degen qyzyghushylyqtyng artqanyn bildiredi. Áriyne, oghan janama yqpal etken Reseyding jana imperiyalyq sayasaty ekeni týsinikti.

2023 jyldyng 21 qarashasynda Vashingtondaghy Vudro Vilison ortalyghynda jinalghan sarapshylar «Reseyding Ortalyq Aziyadaghy yqpaly tómendep kele me?» (Is Russia’s Influence in Central Asia in Decline?) degen súraqty talqylady. «Sarapshylar úzaq uaqyt boyy Reseydi Ortalyq Aziyadaghy qauipsizdik salasyndaghy basty oiynshy dep sanap keldi. Býginde onyng ónirdegi bes elding ýsheuinde: Qazaqstan, Tәjikstan jәne Qyrghyzstanda әskery nysandary bar», - deydi A&M (Research Assistant Professor at The) Tehas uniyversiyteti janyndaghy Bush atyndaghy memlekettik basqaru jәne memlekettik qyzmet mektebining dosent-zertteushisi Edvard Lemon (Edward Lemon, Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University).

Sarapshynyng atap ótuinshe, reseylik yqpaldyng saqtaluynyn  sebebi tek әskery nysandardyng boluynda ghana emes: ol, kóbine, reseylik arnayy qyzmetterding әreketterimen baylanysty: "Songhy otyz jylda reseylik qaru-jaraq ónirdegi qaru-jaraq importynyng shamamen ýshten ekisin, onyng ishinde Qyrghyzstan men Tәjikstan qaru-jaraq importynyng 90% -yn qúrady. Búl, әriyne, osy elderding qaruly kýshterin reseylik ÁÓK-ke tәueldi etuding jәne reseylik әskery doktrinalar men reseylik әskery dayarlau әdistemesine baylauly etuding bir amaly. Búl memleketterding barlyq qauipsizdik qyzmetteri kenestik KGB-dan shyqty jәne búl baylanystar Reseyde jasyrynyp jýrgen ortaaziyalyq dissiydentterge qarsy transúlttyq qughyn-sýrgin tetikterin qoldanudyng negizi bolyp otyr. Organdardyng qauipsizdik pen qylmystyq izdestiru baghyttary boyynsha baylanystardyng saqtaluy  ‑ ony neshe týrli әdistermen iske asyru mýmkindikterin saqtap qaldy».

Alayda, jaqsy janalyq ta bar: «Reseyding Ukrainagha basyp kirui Kremliding Ortalyq Aziyadaghy baylanystaryna keri әser etti. Ol búrynghy ekonomikalyq qatynas jýiesine ziyanyn tiygizdi. Áriyne, soghan qaramastan,  Resey әzirge Ortalyq Aziya elderining qauipsizdik salasyndaghy basty syrtqy seriktesi bolyp otyr. Biraq qazir oghan kýmәn keltirilude», - dep esepteydi sarapshy.

1992 jyly qúrylghan Újymdyq qauipsizdik turaly shart úiymynyng (ÚQShÚ) is jýzindegi әreketke qabiletsizdigi de yqpaldyng tómendegenin kórsetedi. «Qazaqstan, Tәjikstan jәne Qyrghyzstan - barlyghy ÚQShÚ mýsheleri. Alayda, 2010 jyly Qyrghyzstandaghy etnikalyq zorlyq-zombylyq kezinde Qyrghyzstannyng uaqytsha basshysy Roza Otunbaeva ÚQShÚ-ny kómekke shaqyrghan bolatyn. Biraq ol oghan «Búl ishki qauipsizdik mәselesi. Búl ÚQShÚ qanday da bir ról atqaruy tiyis sala emes» degen jauap alyp edi», - dep eske salady Edvard Lemon.

Álem birneshe ret ‑  2021 jylghy sәuir men 2022 jylghy qyrkýiekte Qyrghyzstan men Tәjikstan arasyndaghy shegaralyq qaqtyghystar men zombylyqtyng  kuәgeri boldy. Taghy da oghan ÚQShÚ aralasqan joq. Onyng jasaghan jalghyz eleuli aralasuy 2022 jylghy qantardaghy Qazaqstandaghy oqighalar kezinde boldy. Biraq, Qazaqstannyng syrtqy ister ministri sol kezde búl oqighagha Qytaydyng aralasu perspektivasyn qarastyrghanyn aitty. Biraq ony zandastyratyn mehanizm bolmady. Endeshe, búl – ónirlik qauipsizdik mәselesinde balama seriktester izdestirilude degendi bildiredi».

«Qazaqstandaghy oqighalardan eki ay ótken song Reseyding Ukrainagha tolyqqandy basyp kirui bastaldy, - dep jalghastyrady Lemon. - Búl da ÚQShÚ tónireginde súraq belgilerin qoydy. Sebebi, Resey ózining búl ónirdegi әskery quatyn tómendetuge mәjbýr boldy. Al, Armeniya naqty sebepteri boyynsha ÚQShÚ kezdesulerine qatysudy is jýzinde toqtatty...  Endeshe, biz Ortalyq Aziya elderinde ÚQShÚ‑gha degen qauipsizdik kepildigine, onyng qyzmetine degen ýmitting anyq tómendegenin bayqap otyrmyz», - dep qorytyndylady sarapshy.

Berlindegi Karnegy reseylik-euraziyalyq ortalyghynyng (Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Berlin) ghylymy qyzmetkeri Temur Umarov (Temur Umarov) «Ortalyq Aziya elderi býginde bir tәueldilikti basqasymen almastyratyn jaghdaygha tap bolghysy kelmeydi. Sondyqtan olardyng halyqaralyq qatynastardaghy basty maqsaty - óz baylanystaryn barynsha әrtaraptandyru. Óz tarapynan Ortalyq Aziyagha mýddeli barlyq eldermen qarym-qatynas ónir ýshin manyzdy. Onyng ishinde Ortalyq Aziya Qytaymen qarym-qatynasyn keneytuge úmtylsa da, Reseymen qatysuyn bәribir saqtap qalugha tyrysady. Áriyne, qauipsizdik salasynda Týrkiyamen de baylanystaryn keneytetin bolady. Mening oiymsha, Ortalyq Aziya kenestik jyldardaghyday әldebir elding ózderine ýstemdik jasaghysy kelgenin qalamaydy».

Reseyding Ukrainadaghy soghysqa deyin‑aq búl aimaqty tejey bastauynyng sebebi nede?

Temur Omarov jauabynyng óz núsqasyn úsynady: «Shyn mәninde, Reseyding jәne onyng syrtqy sayasatynyng basty nazarynda әrqashan basqa nәrse boldy, biraq, Ortalyq Aziya emes. Ortalyq Aziya Kremliding shynymen «bas qatyrghan» mәselesi emes: ol eshqashan ózining osy ónirde boluyna kóp qarajat júmsamaghan. Ortalyq Aziyany Mәskeu tek qana «Reseyding úly derjava ekenin» kórsetu ýshin paydalandy – әsirese batyspen qarym-qatynasta. Resey Amerika siyaqty bolghysy keldi. Ol ýshin oghan derjava dep sanalatynday elder qajet boldy».

Býginde Putinning búl ónirge qatysty aldaghy josparlary qanday?

«Ol Ortalyq Aziyanyng óz aldyna damuyn qalaydy, - dep esepteydi Temur Omarov. - Ol múnda Reseydi búrynghysynsha sayasy basshylyqta ýlgi bolyp otyrghan, ýstemshilik etushi  «úly imperiya» dep tanityn ónirdi kórgisi keledi. Sondyqtan Resey Ortalyq Aziya elderining Batyspen ekonomikalyq yntymaqtastyqty qalay keneytetinin, nemese, mysaly, óz әlipbiyin reformalau turaly, kirillisadan latyn әlipbiyine kóshu turaly aitqanyn qyzghanyshpen baqylaydy».

Degenmen, búl ónir elderining batys әlemimen yqpaldasu jolynda kóptegen kedergiler bar. Djordjtaun uniyversiytetining (Georgetown University) ghylym, tehnologiya jәne halyqaralyq qatynastar kafedrasynyng professory Tereza Saboniys-Helf: «Qyrghyzstan Reseyge júmysqa ketken uaqytsha enbek migranttarynyng aqsha audarymdaryna JIÓ-ning 31%-yna tәueldi; Tәjikstanda tәueldilik 51%-gha jetedi. Jәne de, USAIDtyn, mysaly, Ózbekstanda ashqan enbek migranttaryna arnalghan eki kenes beru ortalyghy ónirdegi jaghdaydy týbegeyli ózgertken joq: Ózbekstan Úlybritaniya men Týrkiyagha, az dәrejede Tayau Shyghysqa nazar audarugha úmtylady. Qyrghyzstan men Tәjikstan Ontýstik Koreyamen kelisimge qol qoydy... Biraq búl baghyttardyng eshqaysysy reseylik enbek naryghyn tolyghymen almastyra almaydy, sebebi, búl elder biliktilikting anaghúrlym joghary dengeyin qajet etedi jәne tildik kedergiler de ózgeshe ", - deydi Saboniys-Helf.

Alayda, Ortalyq Aziyanyng Reseydegi enbek naryghyna tәueldiligin birjaqty dep sanaugha bolmaydy, әsirese, Ukrainadaghy soghys bastalghannan keyin. «Keri enbek kóshi-qony da bar, ‑ dep eske salady Tereza Saboniys-Helf. - 2022 jyly Reseyden millionnan astam adam ketti. Biz olardyng qayda kóshkenine qarasaq, kóshbasshy elder Qazaqstan, Gruziya, Armeniya jәne Týrkiya bolyp otyrghanyn kóremiz. Qyrghyzstan azamattyghyn alugha ótinish bergen reseylikter sanynyng da ósui bayqalady. Onyng sebebi qarapayym: ol turaly Resey bilmeydi, kerisinshe, kelgen migranttarda Kremliding rúqsatynsyz‑aq qyrghyz pasportyn alu mýmkindigi bar. Óitkeni, kórshi Tәjikstanday emes, Qyrghyzstannyng Reseymen «qos azamattyq» turaly kelisimi joq» ‑ Bishkek Mәskeudi ózining jana azamattary turaly habardar etuge mindetti emes. Qyrghyz bankteri shygharghan VISA jәne MasterCard kartochkalary reseylikter arasynda qazaq kartochkalarynan kem týspeydi: sanksiyagha úshyraghan Reseyden aiyrmashylyghy ‑ olar býkil әlemde tamasha júmys isteydi.

Soghys kezinde kýsheye týsetin taghy bir faktor: «Resey ekonomikasy Ortalyq Aziya enbek kóshi-qonynsyz túraqty damy almaydy, - dep eske salady Temir Omarov. - Onyng ýstine, reseylik demografiya da osynday qoldaudy qajet etedi. Songhy mәlimetterge sәikes, Reseyge jyl sayyn shamamen 300 myng adam kóship-qonushylar aghyny qajet eken».

Osylaysha, Ukrainadaghy soghys Kremlidi Ortalyq Aziyadaghy «reseylik әskery qatysuyn» azaytugha mәjbýrlep qana qoymay, sonday-aq Reseyding ózining Ortalyq Aziya elderine tәueldiligining jana bir «ekzotikalyq» týrlerin ómirge әkelip, kýsheytti. «Biz Ortalyq Aziyanyng Reseyge tәueldiligi turaly sóz etkende ‑ talqylaghan nәrsening bәrin, endi, keyin qaray tónkerip qaraugha bolady dey alamyz», - dep saraptaydy T. Umarov.

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