Últtyq valutanyng túraqtylyghy – kez kelgen elding ekonomikalyq túraqtylyghynyng eng manyzdy kórsetkishi. Qazaqstanda 2024 jyldyng songhy ailarynda tenge baghamy birqatar ishki jәne syrtqy faktorlardyng әserinen eleuli auytqular kórsetti. Osylaysha, 2024 jyldyng 2 jeltoqsanyndaghy jaghday boyynsha aiyrbastau oryndarynda dollar baghamy 530 tengege jetti, búl últtyq valutanyng әlsireui jalghasyp jatqanyn kórsetedi. Tengening jay-kýii mәselesi jahandyq ekonomikalyq ýrdister men aimaqtyq faktorlardyng qysymynyng kýshengi jaghdayynda ózekti bola týsude.

Últtyq bank tóraghasy Timur Sýleymenov atap ótkendey, tengening әlsireui «qúldyrau» emes, әlemdik naryqtardaghy qúrylymdyq jәne qysqa merzimdi ózgeristerding nәtiyjesi. Aghymdaghy aiyrbas baghamynyng dinamikasyn anyqtaytyn negizgi sebepterge AQSh dollarynyng túraqty nyghangy, múnaydyng әlemdik baghasynyng tómendeui jәne Resey rublining әlsireui jatady. Búl faktorlar ekonomikasy damyp kele jatqan elderdin, sonyng ishinde Qazaqstannyng valutalaryna aitarlyqtay әser etedi. AQSh dollary indeksining nyghangy Amerikanyng aqsha-nesie sayasatynyng sharalary men geosayasy faktorlardyng әserimen baylanysty. Songhy ailarda dollardyng ósui AQSh aktivterining kiristiligine әkelip soqtyrghan Federaldyq rezervtik jýiening negizgi mólsherlemesin arttyru arqyly qoldau tapty. Búl dollardy investorlar ýshin tartymdy etip, onyng basqa valutalargha qatysty pozisiyasyn nyghaytty.

Álemdik múnay baghasynyng tómendeui tengege de keri әserin tiygizdi. Kómirsutek eksportyna tәueldi el retinde Qazaqstan eksporttyq kiristerding tómendeuine tap boldy, búl últtyq valutagha qysymdy kýsheytti. Búghan qosa, ózining ekonomikalyq jәne sanksiyalyq syn-qaterlerinen tuyndaghan resey rublining әlsireui jaghdaydy qiyndata týsti, óitkeni Resey Qazaqstannyng iri sauda seriktesi bolyp tabylady.

Dýrbelenning aldyn alu jәne valuta naryghyn túraqtandyru ýshin Qazaqstannyng Últtyq banki valutalyq intervensiyalar jýrgizdi. Timur Sýleymenovting aituynsha, búl sharalar tenge baghamynyng «qonuyn júmsartugha» jәne aitarlyqtay qysqa merzimdi kýizelisterdi boldyrmaugha mýmkindik berdi. Degenmen, intervensiya sayasaty shekteuli jәne qazirgi uaqytta naryq jana tepe-tendikti derbes izdeude. Osymen qatar inflyasiyany tejeuge jәne qarjylyq túraqtylyqty nyghaytugha baghyttalghan bazalyq mólsherlemeni jyldyq 15,25%-gha deyin arttyru turaly sheshim qabyldandy.

Talqylanyp otyrghan mәselening manyzdy aspektisi – búl auytqulardyng halyq pen bizneske әseri. Dollar baghamynyng ósui importtyq tauarlar baghasynyng ósuine jәne kәsiporyndardyng shyghyndarynyng ósuine әkeledi, búl óz kezeginde inflyasiyanyng ósuine jәne azamattardyng satyp alu qabiletining tómendeuine әkelui mýmkin. Degenmen, ýkimet pen Últtyq bank әleumettik mindettemelerdi qoldau men jәrdemaqylardy indeksasiyalaudy qosa alghanda, kelensiz saldardy barynsha azaytu ýshin kelisilgen sharalar qabyldanyp jatqanyn basa aitady.

Osylaysha, 2024 jylghy jeltoqsandaghy tengening jay-kýiin taldau jahandyq jәne ónirlik faktorlardyng ýilesiminen tuyndaghan aghymdaghy makroekonomikalyq jaghdaydyng kýrdeliligin kórsetedi. Valuta baghamyn odan әri túraqtandyru retteushilerding is-әreketining tiyimdiligine jәne ekonomikanyng jana jaghdaylargha beyimdeluine baylanysty bolady.

1. 2024 jyly tengening әlsireui: jahandyq ýrdister jәne negizgi syrtqy faktorlar

Tenge baghamy kez kelgen últtyq valuta siyaqty ishki jәne syrtqy faktorlardyng әserine sezimtal. 2024 jyly tengening әlsireui Qazaqstannyng negizgi ekonomikalyq problemalarynyng birine ainaldy. 2024 jyldyng jeltoqsanyna qaray bir dollar ýshin 530 tenge dengeyine jetken dollardyng tengege shaqqandaghy ósui el ekonomikasyna kýshti qysym jasaytyn birqatar jahandyq jәne aimaqtyq faktorlargha baylanysty. Búl maqalada AQSh-tyng aqsha-nesie sayasatyndaghy ózgerister, Ukrainadaghy soghys, múnay óndiruge shekteuler, reseylik bankterge salynghan sanksiyalar jәne Qazaqstannyng әlemdik ekonomikagha integrasiyasy tengening әlsireuine qalay әser etetinin qarastyramyz.

1.1. Donalid Tramptyng Preziydenttikke kelui jәne AQSh-tyng aqsha-nesie sayasatyndaghy ózgerister

2024 jyldyng qarashasynda Donalid Tramp Amerika Qúrama Shtattarynyng preziydenttigine qayta kiristi, búl AQSh-tyng ekonomikalyq sayasatyndaghy ózgeristerge, sonyng ishinde proteksionistik sharalar men monetarlyq qysymnyng kýshengine sebep boldy. Federaldyq rezerv jýiesi  negizgi mólsherlemeni kóteru sayasatyn jalghastyrdy, búl AQSh dollarynyng barlyq basqa valutalargha, sonyng ishinde tengege qatysty nyghanyna yqpal etti. 2024 jyldyng jeltoqsanyna qaray FRJ mólsherlemesi jylyna 5,5%-gha jetti, búl dollardy investorlar ýshin tartymdy etti jәne Qazaqstan siyaqty damushy naryqtardan kapitaldyng ketuine әkeldi.

Dollardyng basqa valutalar qorjynyna qatysty kýshin ólsheytin Dollar indeksi songhy 12 aida 10%-gha ósti. Búl dollargha súranystyng artuyna jәne damushy elder valutalarynyng qúnsyzdanuyna әkeldi.

QR Últtyq bank tóraghasy Timur Sýleymenovting pikirinshe, dollardyng nyghangy barlyq valutalargha qysym jasaytyn jahandyq faktor bolyp tabylady jәne Qazaqstan әlemdik ekonomikanyng bir bóligi retinde búl yqpaldan tolyqtay oqshaulana almaydy. ÚB Tóraghasy: «Valuta naryghyndaghy jaghday turaly qysqasha mәlimdeme jasaghymyz keledi. Ózderiniz biletindey, tenge baghamy syrtqy jәne ishki faktorlardyng ýilesui әserinen bir dollar ýshin 500 tenge dengeyinen asyp týsti. Keshe birjalyq saudada dollar baghamy 519,7 tengege jetip, dәl 512 tengemen jabyldy. Múnay naryghy joghary qúbylmaly kýide, onyng ishinde dollardyng kýshti baghamy ayasynda... Dollar nyghangyn jalghastyruda, búl dәstýrli týrde damushy elderding valutalaryna qysym kórsetude», - degen bolatyn Timur Suleymenov.

1.2. Ukrainadaghy soghys jәne geosayasy túraqsyzdyq

Ukrainadaghy soghys jahandyq jәne aimaqtyq ekonomikagha aitarlyqtay qauip tóndirude. 2022 jyldan bastap qaqtyghys sauda joldary, energetika jәne qarjy naryghyna әser etti. Reseyding eng jaqyn kórshisi retinde Qazaqstan ýshin soghystyng saldary aimaqtaghy ekonomikalyq belsendilikting tómendeui jәne geosayasy jaghynan tyghyz tәueldi elderding valutalaryna degen senimning tómendeui arqyly kórindi. Ukrainadaghy soghysqa baylanysty Resey Qazaqstannyng eng iri sauda seriktesterining biri retinde Resey rubline keri әserin tiygizgen terendey týsken sanksiyalargha tap boldy. 2024 jyldyng qazan aiynda rubli 16%-gha әlsiredi, búl dollardyng kóteriluine sebep boldy jәne tengege qysym jasady. Jalpy aimaqtaghy geosayasy túraqsyzdyq valuta naryqtarynyng boljamdylyghyn tómendetip, Ortalyq Aziya elderi, sonyng ishinde Qazaqstan ýshin qosymsha tәuekelder tudyratynyndyghy anyq.

1.3. OPES+ tarapynan múnay óndiruge shekteuler

Eksporttyng 50%-gha deyin múnaydy qúraytyn Qazaqstan ýshin 2024 jyly OPEK+ elderining múnay óndiru kólemining tómendeui tengening әlsireuine taghy bir sebep boldy. Saud Arabiyasy karteliding kóshbasshysy retinde múnaydyng joghary baghasyn ústap túru ýshin óndiristi shekteudi bastady. Osy sharalargha qaramastan múnay baghasy qúbylmaly bolyp qaldy jәne әlemdik súranystyng tómendeuine baylanysty 2024 jyldyng qarashasynda barreline 88 dollardan 74 dollargha deyin tómendedi.

QR Últtyq ekonomika ministrligining mәlimeti boyynsha, 2024 jyldyng qazan-qarasha ailaryndaghy múnay baghasynyng tómendeui elding valutalyq týsimin 18%-gha qysqartty, búl ishki naryqta shetel valutasynyng úsynysynyng tómendeuine әkeldi.

Últtyq bank basshysy Timur Sýleymenov Qazaqstan eksportqa baghdarlanghan el retinde múnay baghasynyng auytquyna óte tәueldi ekenin, búl tenge baghamyn OPEK+ sheshimderine sezimtal etetinin atap ótti.

Búl turaly Timur Sýleymenovtyng aitqan sózine silteme jasasaq: «Sonymen qatar, AQSh-ta kәdimgi múnaydan basqa taqtatas múnayy da óndiriletinin úmytpau kerek, onyng qúny da aitarlyqtay joghary. Búl múnay baghasynyng tómendeui de tiyimdi emes, olar jay ghana bәsekege qabiletti bola almaydy. Ári qaray, múnay baghasyn ústap túru túrghysynan da qozghalyp kele jatqan OPEK+ bar ekenin úmytpanyz. Sondyqtan men preziydent Tramptyng saylau aldyndaghy uәdelerin qanshalyqty dәl oryndaytynyn bilmeymin jәne kýshti qysym bolmaydy dep ýmittenemin. Múnay baghasynyng qatty qúldyrauy nemese qúldyrauy boljanbaydy. Tiyisinshe, osyghan baylanysty boljamdardy da kóp ózgertuding qajeti joq shyghar dep oilaymyn. Biraq biz konservativti boluymyz kerek», - degen bolatyn.

1.4. Resey bankterine qarsy qosymsha sanksiyalar

2024 jyly Resey bankterine, sonyng ishinde Gazprombankke qarsy sanksiyalar kýsheyip, aimaqtaghy tranzaksiya mýmkindikterin azaytty. Reseylik bankter dәstýrli týrde Qazaqstannyng qarjylyq operasiyalarynda, әsirese shekaralyq saudada manyzdy ról atqardy. Reseydegi halyqaralyq kapital naryghyna qoljetimdilikting shektelui ekonomikalyq belsendilikke qysym jasap, Qazaqstandaghy kapitaldyng ketuin arttyrdy.

Sanksiyalardy kýsheytu Qazaqstan men Resey arasyndaghy operasiyalardy shekteuge әkeldi, búl qosymsha valutalyq tәuekelderdi tudyrdy jәne dollargha súranysty arttyrdy.

Reseymen jýrgiziletin qarjylyq operasiyalardyng qúbylmalylyghynyng artuy Qazaqstannyng valutalyq rezervterin, onyng ishinde valutalyq aktivterge investisiyalaudy әrtaraptandyrudy talap etetinindigi anyq.

1.5. Qazaqstannyng әlemdik naryqqa integrasiyalanuynyng joghary dәrejesi

Qazaqstan ekonomikasy әlemdik naryqqa tereng integrasiyalanghan, búl ony jahandyq ózgeristerge osal etedi. Resey, Qytay jәne EO elderimen sauda baylanystary tenge baghamyna syrtqy faktorlardyng әserin kýsheytedi. Tarihy jәne sauda-sattyq baylanystary arqyly Qazaqstannyng Resey rubline bekinui tengeni rubli baghamyna sezimtal etedi.

2024 jyldyng qazan aiynda rubliding әlsireui men tranzaksiyalyq shyghyndardyng ósuine baylanysty Qazaqstan men Resey arasyndaghy sauda 12%-gha qysqardy. Búl tenge baghamyna qosymsha qysym jasady, óitkeni importtaushylar tólemder ýshin dollar satyp alugha úmtyldy.

Qorytyndy: Jahandyq faktorlardyng keshendi әseri

2024 jyly tengening әlsireui Qazaqstan ekonomikasynyng jahandyq jәne aimaqtyq ýderistermen qanshalyqty ózara baylanysta ekenin kórsetedi. AQSh-tyng aqsha-nesie sayasatyndaghy ózgerister, múnaydyng әlemdik baghasynyng qúldyrauy, Ukrainadaghy soghys, reseylik bankterge qarsy sanksiyalardyng kýshengi jәne Qazaqstannyng әlemdik naryqqa joghary integrasiyasy saldarynan dollar baghamynyng nyghangy AQSh dollaryna qysym jasaytyn faktorlardyng kýrdeli keshenin tudyrady.

Degenmen, Qazaqstan jaghdaydy túraqtandyru sharalaryn qabyldauda. Últtyq bank intervensiya jasap, auytqulardy tegisteu ýshin bazalyq mólsherlemeni 15,25%-gha deyin kóterdi. Alayda tenge baghamyn odan әri túraqtandyru úzaq merzimdi qúrylymdyq ózgeristerdi, onyng ishinde ekonomikany әrtaraptandyrudy, múnaygha tәueldilikti azaytudy jәne sauda aghyndaryn qayta baghdarlaudy talap etedi.

Syrtqy faktorlardyng әserin azaytu ýshin Qazaqstangha ishki ekonomikalyq mehanizmderdi kýsheytu, shiykizattyq emes sektorlargha investisiya tartu mýmkindikterin keneytu jәne shiykizat baghasynyng auytquyna tәueldilikti azaytu qajet. Búl ekonomikalyq damu ýshin neghúrlym túraqty bazany qúrugha jәne jahandyq kýizelisterge osaldyqty barynsha azaytugha mýmkindik beredi.

2. Núrlan Baybazarovpen valuta naryghynyng jaghdayy turaly brifing

2024 jyldyng songhy ailarynda qazaqstandyq tengening baghamy belsendi talqylaudyng taqyrybyna ainaldy. Jeltoqsangha qaray últtyq valutanyng 1 dollar ýshin 530 tengege deyin әlsireui ne bolyp jatqany, onyng saldary boluy mýmkin jәne ekonomikany túraqtandyru ýshin ýkimet qanday qadamdar jasap jatyr degen súraqtar tuyndady. Últtyq ekonomika ministri Núrlan Baybazarov óz týsiniktemelerinde qalyptasqan jaghdaydy naqty týsindirip, aghymdaghy valuta baghamynyng ózgeruine tek irgeli syrtqy faktorlar әser etetinin, al ishki ekonomikalyq prosester túraqty bolyp otyrghanyn atap ótti.

2.1.Tengening әlsireu sebepteri

Núrlan Baybazarov tengening әlsireuining negizgi sebepterin AQSh dollary indeksining nyghangy, múnaydyng әlemdik baghasynyng tómendeui jәne Resey rublining әlsireui dep týsindirdi. Dollardyng nyghangy inflyasiyamen kýresu ýshin payyzdyq mólsherlemelerdi kóterudi jalghastyryp jatqan AQSh Federaldy rezervtik jýiesining sayasatymen baylanysty. Búl dollardy investorlar ýshin tartymdy etedi, әlemdik naryqtaghy ornyn nyghaytady. Áriyne, múnday dinamika damushy elderdin, sonyng ishinde Qazaqstannyng valutalaryna qysym jasaydy. Múnay baghasynyng tómendeui de manyzdy faktor boldy. Kómirsutek eksportyna qatty tәueldi Qazaqstan ekonomikasy shiykizat baghasynyng auytquyna erekshe sezimtal. 2024 jyly әlemdik naryqtaghy múnay baghasy barreline 88 dollardan 74 dollargha deyin tómendedi, búl ekonomikagha týsetin valutalyq týsimderdi azaytyp, tengege qysymdy kýsheytti. Ýshinshi faktor – Resey rublining әlsireui. Resey Qazaqstannyng eng iri sauda seriktesi, onyng ekonomikasyndaghy kez kelgen ózgerister onyng kórshilerine de әser etetini sózsiz. Sanksiyalar men ishki ekonomikalyq qiyndyqtargha baylanysty rubliding bir jylda 16%-dan astam әlsireui Reseyden әkelinetin tauarlardyng qúnyn kóterip, tólemder ýshin dollargha súranysty arttyrdy.

Qarasha aiynda tenge 5 payyzgha әlsiregenimen, Baybazarov jaghday uaqytsha dep sendiredi. Memleket respublikalyq budjette dollar baghamyn qayta qaraudy josparlap otyrghan joq. 2024 jylgha arnalghan ortasha jyldyq boljam 470 tenge dengeyinde qaldy, al qoymada 500 tengege baghalanghan «B jospary» bar. Alayda 600 tenge baghamy bolatyn ssenariy, ministrding aituynsha, tipti qarastyrylyp jatqan joq.

2.2. Túraqtandyru ýshin qanday sharalar qabyldanuda

Ministr Qazaqstan ýkimeti men Últtyq bank valutalyq qúbyludyng saldaryn barynsha azaytu jәne túraqtylyqty qamtamasyz etu boyynsha kelisilgen sharalardy qolgha alyp jatqanyn atap ótti. Negizgi mindetterding biri – inflyasiyany tejeu. Osy maqsatta otandyq azyq-týlik óndirisin keneytu, әleumettik manyzy bar tauarlardyng baghasyn retteu jәne túraqtandyru qorlaryn paydalanudy qamtityn sharalar kesheni әzirlendi. Mәselen, el qoymalarynda 826 myng tonnadan astam azyq-týlik saqtalghan, búl túrghyndardyng birneshe ailyq súranysyn óteuge mýmkindik beredi. Búl әsirese importtyq tauarlar qúnynyng ósui jaghdayynda manyzdy.

Azamattardy әleumettik qorghau basym baghyt bolyp qala beredi. Zeynetaqylar men jәrdemaqylardy indeksteu 2025 jyldyng 1 qantarynan bastap jalghasady. Birlesken zeynetaqy 8,5 payyzgha, әleumettik tólemder 6,5 payyzgha ósedi. 2025 jyldyng budjetinde әleumettik tólemderding 42 týrin jýzege asyrugha 6 trillionnan astam tenge qarastyrylghan. Búl sharalar halyqtyng eng osal toptaryna inflyasiyanyng әserin óteuge baghyttalghan.

Taghy bir manyzdy baghyt – ekonomikany әrtaraptandyru jәne importqa tәueldilikti azaytu. Núrlan Baybazarov Qazaqstan otandyq óndiristi, әsirese ekonomika ýshin manyzdy salalarda belsendi damyp jatqanyn atap ótti. Búl importtyq qúrylys materialdaryna, qúral-jabdyqtar men azyq-týlikke tәueldilikti azaytyp, eldi syrtqy ekonomikalyq kýizelisterden saqtaydy. Memleket sonymen qatar ekonomikanyng shiykizattyq emes sektorlaryna investisiya tartudy yntalandyryp, jergilikti óndiristi damytugha baghyttalghan jobalardy qoldaydy.

Tengening әlsireui ayasynda defolt yqtimaldyghy turaly alandaushylyq tuyndady. Alayda Baybazarov múnday boljamdardy ýzildi-kesildi joqqa shygharyp: «Eshqanday defolt kýtilmeydi. Memleketting qarjylyq jaghdayy túraqty, rezervter bar»,- degen bolatyn. Qazaqstanda barlyq әleumettik jәne qarjylyq mindettemelerdi oryndaugha jetkilikti rezervter bar. Onyng ýstine memlekettik baghdarlamalar men investisiyalyq jobalar ekonomikanyng túraqtylyghyn kórsetip, ýzdiksiz jalghasuda.

Ministr sonday-aq valuta baghamynyng qúbyluy әrqashan bolghan jәne bola beretin tabighy prosess ekenin atap ótti. Mәsele olargha qalay jauap berude. Býginde kompaniyalar men bankter valutalyq tәuekelderdi saqtandyrudy ýirendi, búl iri jobalar ýshin yqtimal teris saldardy azaytady.

Qorytyndylay kelek, tenge baghamy men Qazaqstan ekonomikasynyng jay-kýiine qatysty qazirgi jaghday әriyne súraqtardy, tipti alandaushylyqty da tudyrady. Degenmen, bizge tek bizding elimizge ghana emes, býkil әlemge әser etetin jahandyq faktorlar әser etetinin týsinu manyzdy. Tengening әlsireuine dollardyng nyghangy, múnay baghasynyng tómendeui jәne kórshiles elderdegi ekonomikalyq túraqsyzdyq sebep bolyp otyr. Búl ýderister uaqytsha, al Qazaqstannyng ekonomikasy ýkimetting oilastyrylghan is-әreketining arqasynda túraqtylyq tanytyp otyr.

Últtyq ekonomika ministri Núrlan Baybazarov naqty aitty: defolt bolmaydy. Memlekette barlyq mindettemelerdi oryndaugha jetkilikti rezervter men qúraldar bar. Zeynetaqylar men jәrdemaqylardy indeksteu, әleumettik manyzy bar tauarlardyng baghasyn baqylau, túraqtandyru qorlary elding negizgi ónimge degen qajettiligin qamtamasyz etetin bolady.

Ýkimet aghymdaghy syn-qaterlerge tótep berip qana qoymay, bolashaqqa júmys isteude. Otandyq óndiristi keneytu, importqa tәueldilikti azaytu jәne investisiyany qoldau – ekonomikamyzdy nyghaytyp, ony syrtqy kýizelisterge tózimdi etetin qadamdar. Júrtshylyq valuta baghamynyng auytquy jahandyq ekonomikanyng qalypty bóligi ekenin este ústaghany manyzdy. Olar búryn da bolghan, qazir de bolyp jatyr jәne bolashaqta da bolady. Biraq eng bastysy - beyimdelu jәne birge әreket etu qabiletimiz.

El ekonomikasyn qoldanyz: jergilikti óndirilgen tauarlardy tandanyz, әleumettik baghdarlamalardy paydalanynyz jәne ýreylenbeniz. Qazaqstan ózining túraqtylyghyn birneshe ret dәleldedi jәne búl kezeng de erekshelik emes. Núrlan Baybazarov atap ótkendey, «valuta auytqulary әrqashan bolghan jәne bola bermek, mәsele olargha qalay jauap beru kerek». Sabyrly jәne bolashaqqa senimmen qarap әreket etuimiz kerek bolyp túr.

Aynúr Baqytjanova

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