Qazir Europa men AQSh-tyng eki bólek jolgha týskenine esh kýmәn joq. NATO-nyng ólim saghatynyng tayaghany búdan búrynda aitylghan edi.

Jeksenbide ayaqtaghan Munhen qauipsizdik konferensiyasynda shyndyqqa ainaldy.

AQSh pen Europa arasyndaghy «bet jyrtysu» ýsh salada kórinis tapty: Ukraina soghysy, sóz bostandyghy jәne sauda-sattyqta.

Ótken aptada ghana Tramp kýtpegen jerden Resey preziydenti Vladimir Putinmen beybit kelissózder jýrgizetinin mәlimdedi (ol ózining saylaualdy nauqany kezinde múny isteytinin aitqan, biraq europalyq kóshbasshylar nazar audarmaghan siyaqty). Tramptyng Ukraina boyynsha arnayy ókili Kit Kellog 15-i kýni europalyqtargha joghary dengeydegi kelissózderde olar ýshin oryn joq ekenin ashyq aitty.

Europalyq kóshbasshylar shoshyp ketti. Tramp Ukrainanyng NATO-gha mýshe bolmaytynyn jariyalaghan kezde, keybir europalyq kóshbasshylar, sonyng ishinde Starmer Ukrainanyng bolashaqta NATO-gha qosyluynan әli de ýmitti edi. Tramp Reseyding daghdyly uәjin, Ukrainanyng NATO-gha qosylu mýmkindigi soghysty tudyrghanyn qaytalap aitty. Tramp sonymen birge Ukraina soghysta jene almaydy degen qorytyndygha keldi (men kelisemin).

Beybitshilik kelisimining yqtimal núsqalary payda bola bastady: Ukraina NATO-gha kirmeydi. Boljauymyzsha, Reseyding tyiym salynghan aktivteri qaytarylady; Tramp tipti, Reseyding jetilik tobyna (G7) qayta qosyluyn qalaydy.

Búl europalyqtardyng ashuyn tudyrdy. Europalyq BAQ pen kóptegen ghalymdar nәtiyjesiz ertegini taghy jalghastyruda: Ukraina soghysta Batystyng ýzdiksiz qoldauymen ghana jene alady-mys. Biraq búl maydan kórmegen syrt kózding syldyr sózi ghana.

Jaqynda britandyq ekonomika tarihshysy Robert Skiydeliskiy britandyq BAQ-tyng soghysty jalghastyru turaly kózqarasy bir saryndy dedi. Ol nemisting әskery tarihshysy Karl fon Klauzevistin: «soghysty qalay ayaqtau kerektigin bilmeyinshe, soghysty bastamanyz» degen manyzdy kenesin esimizge saldy.

Europalyqtar ýshin soghys syrt kózding ermegi siyaqty boldy. Olardyng Ukrainany qoldauy – búl ritorika jәne qúr uәde ghana, strategiyalyq jospar, songhy oiyn jospary, eng jaqsy nәtiyjelerge qol jetkizu turaly kelisim jәne soghystan keyin ne boluy mýmkin ekendigi turaly naqty jospar joq.

Ukrainadaghy soghys sózsiz ayaqtaluy kerek, óitkeni Ukraina әldeqashan jenilip qaldy. Qarapayym shyndyq osy. Resey soghys ekonomikasyna bet búrdy jәne onyng әskery tehnika men oq-dәriler óndiru quaty Batys elderinen әldeqayda asyp týsedi. Resey endi jenilmeydi. Amerika Qúrama Shtattary men Europa bayaghyda, soghystyng birinshi kýninen bastap reseylik múnay men gazgha tolyq embargo qoyyp, barlyq reseylik bankterdi halyqaralyq qarjy jelisinen tolyq ajyratyp, qorghanys ónerkәsibine investisiyany dereu úlghaytyp jәne әsker shyghynyna tótep beruge dayyn bolghanda Ukraina jener edi. Ukrainagha batyl qoldaushylar qajet edi, ókinishke qaray sengenderi qúry aitaqshylar bolyp shyqty.

Halyqaralyq diplomatiyanyng jayly ýstelinen «balalar ýsteline» yghysqan europalyqtar Munhen qauipsizdik konferensiyasynda amerikalyqtardan jaqsy sózder kýtken edi. Alayda, olar AQSh viyse-preziydenti Vensting sógisin aldy. Vens olargha Batystyng aldynda túrghan eng ýlken qauip Resey nemese Qytay emes, Europanyng sóz bostandyghyn basyp-janshuy ekenin aitty.

Vens AQSh-taghy saylaudan keyin kóp úzamay alghash ret jasaghan qoqan-loqqysyn taghy qaytalady: «EO-nyng AQSh-qa tiyesili әleumettik media kompaniyalaryna senzura jasau әreketi AQSh-tyng NATO-dan ketuine әkeledi. «Halqynyzdyng dausyn, pikirin, ar-ojdanyn basshylyqqa aludan qorqatyn bolsanyz, qauipsizdik joq ekenine senimdimin» dedi.

Europa ýnsiz qaldy. Europanyng sentristik ýkimetterining onshyl kýshterge qarsy kýreste ailalary tausyldy. Olar «baqylanbaytyn sóz bostandyghy» europalyq integrasiyagha ekzistensialdy qauip tóndiredi dep qorqady. Óitkeni, EO demokratiyasy tómennen jogharygha baghyttalghan  emes, eurogha qoldau basynan-aq әlsiz boldy. Mysaly, Germaniyada eurony qoldau kópshilikting qolynda emes.

VVS Vensting sózin «óte nashar payymdau» dep sipattady. Degenmen, britandyqtar men europalyqtardyng AQSh-tyng jana әkimshiligimen kýresudegi útymdy qadamy ekiúdayylyqty toqtatyp, bastamany qolgha alu bolar edi. EO men Úlybritaniya endi Europanyng qauipsizdigine jauapty bolady - mәsele olar osy jýkti kóterile ala ma? Olar qorghanysqa kóbirek aqsha jinap, jabdyqty satyp aludy útymdyraq ýilestirip, ortalyqtandyruy kerek - mysaly, EO elderinde 12 týrli negizgi tanki bar, al AQSh-ta bir ghana tank bar.

Mәsele mynada, Europada әr elding óz qyzyl syzyqtary bar. Nemister eshqayda әsker jibergisi kelmeydi. Makron euroaymaqtaghy qaryzdy qorghanys budjetin qarjylandyru ýshin paydalanugha shaqyrady. Polyaktar europalyq armiya qúru iydeyasyn qoldamaydy, al Angliya EO-tyng mýshesi emes, aitqanymen jýrmeydi. Olar qiyn ótkelden ótkisi kelse, shyndyqpen sanasuy әri jedel  әreket etui kerek.

Ashy bolsada shyndyq mynau, europalyq elder qorghanys salasynda ondaghan jyldar boyy belsheden qaryzgha batty, resurstardy úzaq uaqyt boyy әleumettik qamsyzdandyru baghdarlamalaryna júmsady. Búl ýrdisti ózgertu qiynnyng qiyny bolyp túr.

Tramptyng Europadan AQSh-tyng paydasyna bola bas tartyp jatqany dausyz. Angela Merkeli múny 2018 jyly Tramppen kezdeskennen keyin kóp úzamay Bavariyadaghy syra shatyrynda sóilegen sózinde, boljaghan bolatyn. Merkeli sol kezde Europanyng Amerika Qúrama Shtattaryna tәueldiligin azaytu kerektigin aitqan. Biraq basqalar siyaqty ol da keyin eshtene istemedi.

Sóitip býgingi kýnge de jettik,  europalyq kóshbasshylardyng bólek ýstelding basynda otyrghanyn kórdik. Olar geosayasattyng Norma Desmondtary – dәureni ótse de ózining tanymaldyghyna әli de senimdi kino júldyz siyaqty.

Volifgang Munchau

Financial Times redaktorynyng orynbasary

Abai.kz