Biyl Euraziyalyq ekonomikalyq odaqqa 10 jyl toldy. 2015 jyldan beri Qazaqstan jana ekonomikalyq, kedendik, tauar ainalymdyq rejimde ómir sýrip keledi. Ony bәrimiz sezdik. 10 jyl - barlyq aspektilerdi saralap, belgili bir qorytyndygha keluge mýmkindik beretin merzim. Endeshe, Euraziyalyq Odaqtyng Qazaqstangha paydasy kóp boldy ma, әlde ziyany basym boldy ma degen súraqtyng jauabyn býgin bere alamyz.

Keden odaghy qúrylyp, odan keyin ekonomikalyq odaq qúrylghan dәuir esimde jaqsy saqtalypty. Ol kezde men televiziyany basqardym jәne kóptegen sheneuikter men ekonomisterding osyghan qatysty tezisteri qolymnan ótti. Bizde «Qazaqstan ýlken diviydend alady, sebebi bizge 140 milliondyq Resey naryghy esh baj salyghynsyz ashylady» degen optimizm boldy. Jýirigin ýkilep bәigege qosqan adamday biz búdan bir «batpan qúiryq» kýtkenimiz jasyryn emes. Tauar shygharamyz, eksportty arttyryp Reseyge satamyz degen josparlardyng barlyghy qazir bireu bilip, bireu bilmeytin «Industrialdy-innovasiyalyq ýdemeli damu», «30 korporativti liyder» degen baghdarlamalardyng arqasynda oryndaluy tiyis edi. Bizde Reseyge qaraghanda qosymsha qún salyghy tómen bolghandyqtan, sheteldik investorlar zauyttaryn Qazaqstanda ashyp, al ónimderin Reseyge satady degen topshylaular da kóp boldy. Sol kezde bir qarasang bәri logikalyq, bәri dúrys siyaqty bolyp kóringen. Biraq 10 jyl ótkennen keyin biz qanday jolgha keldik?

2025 jyldyng qorytyndysy boyynsha bizding ekonomika kólemi 300 milliard dollar shamasynda bolady dep boljaymyn. Demek, Euraziyalyq Odaqqa kirgeli bergi 10 jylda Qazaqstannyng ishki jalpy ónimi 184,36 milliard dollardan 300 milliard dollargha ósti dep eseptey alamyz. Sonda Euraziyalyq ekonomikalyq odaq uaqytynda biz ishki jalpy ónimge 115,64 milliard dollar qostyq.

Endi EAES-ke deyingi 10 jyldy kóreyik. Odaqsyz ózimiz jeke ómir sýrgen 2005-2015 jyldar aralyghynda bizding ishki jalpy ónim 57,1 milliard dollardan 184,36 milliard dollargha deyin artqan. Búl + 127,26 milliard dollar. Geosayasat qansha búlandasa da, ekonomikadaghy statistikany ainalyp óte almaydy. EAES joq kezde bizding ekonomikamyz qarqyndyraq damyghan. 10 jyldaghy aiyrmashylyq shamamen 12 milliard dollar. Yaghny Odaqqa deyingi 10 jylda biz ishki jalpy ónimdi 12 milliard dollargha artyq ósirgenbiz.

Odaq qúrylghaly 10 jyl ótkennen keyingi uaqytta biz Resey naryghyn emes, Resey bizding naryghymyzdy paydalandy dep tolyq senimmen aita alamyn. Mysaly, odaqqa kirmey túrghan 2014 jyly Qazaqstan men Resey arasyndaghy tauar ainalymy 20,19 milliard dollar boldy. Onyng ishinde, bizding Reseyge eksportymyz 6,38 milliard dollar, al Reseyden keletin import 13,8 milliard dollargha baghalandy. Sonda keri salido, yaghny bizding minusymyz 7,42 milliard dollar bolyp túrghan.

Odaqtyng arqasynda osy minusty joyyp, eksportty arttyra aldyq pa?

2024 jyldyng qorytyndysy boyynsha Reseymen tauar ainalymyn 27,8 milliard dollargha kóterdik. Onyng ishinde bizding eksport 9,54 milliard dollar, importymyz 18,25 milliard dollar bolyp shyqty. Sonda ózara saudada keri jaghymsyz salido 8,7 milliard dollar bolyp ósip ketken.

Qanday nәtiyje alyp otyrmyz? Odaqtyng ishindegi 10 jylda biz Reseyge eksportymyzdy nebary 3 milliard dollargha kóbeytkenbiz. Al Reseyden tasityn importymyz 4,45 milliard dollargha ósken. Jaghymsyz salido 1,28 milliard dollargha artqan. Odaqta Reseyden basqa elder de bar. Olardy eskerip, jalpy Odaq boyynsha tauar ainalymdy qarasaq, 10 jyl ishinde eksportymyz 2,22 milliard dollargha, importymyz 3,33 milliard dollargha ósken. Sonda Odaqtan kim útty?

Mening oiymsha, eshqanday odaqsyz aq Qazaqstan 10 jyldyng ishinde búl kórshilerge óz eksportyn qinalmay ósire alar edi. Mysaly bizben esh sauda kelisimi joq Amerika Qúrama Shtattaryn alayyq. 2014 jyly biz AQSh-qa 410 million dollargha eksport jiberip, 1,9 milliard dollargha import alghanbyz. Al 2024 jylghy eksportymyz 1,9 milliard dollar, importymyz 2,2 milliard dollar boldy. Sonda 10 jylda biz AQSh-qa eksportty ýsh esege, dәlirek aitsaq bir jarym milliard dollargha arttyrghanbyz. Al import bar-bolghany 300 million dollargha kóbeygen.

Esh odaqqa kirmey, alysta jatqan Amerikamen jaghymsyz salidony әjeptәuir qysqartyp, tauar ainalymyn eki ese ósire aldyq. Odaqqa kiru biz ýshin tek oghan mýshe elderden alatyn importty ghana kóbeytip berip, syrtqy tólem balansy men tengege auyr soqqy bolyp tiydi. 10 jyl ishindegi EAES-ting bizge bergen bar jemisi osy.

Jәne búghan kinәli tek Qazaqstannyng ózi ghana. Resey de, basqasy da kinәli emes. Olar tek biz ózimiz jasap bergen jaghdaydy paydalanyp ketti. Eshkim bizge óndeytin óndiris ashyp, dayyn tauarlar shygharyp, ony Reseyge satugha tiym salghan joq. Mәskeudegi otyrystarda biznes mýddeni qorghaugha, tariften tys barier jasap otyrghan әr gubernatordyng esigin qaghugha, talap etuge eshkim qoy demedi. Biraq bas shúlghy berdik, kelgen otchetterge qol qoyyp qana otyrdyq, óz kәsipkerlerimizdi sýirep, naryqqa shygharugha úyaldyq. Eng bastysy, industrialdy óndiriske, óndeu ónerkәsibine budjetten qyruar qarjy bóldirip, ony úrlap-jyrlap jep qoydyq. Endi qúrylys materialdary men tamaq jasaytyn zauyt ta joq, aqsha da joq. Bәrin Reseyden dayyn aldyramyz.

Bizde Reseyge degen 18 milliard dollarlyq tәueldilik bar. Sondyqtan kórshining kez-kelgen inflyasiyasy ýsh kýnnen keyin bizge keledi. Sol ýshin bazalyq stavka joghary. Sol ýshin kredit prosenti qymbat. Sol ýshin aqshanyz tamaqqa әreng jetedi. Búl kezinde FIIR degen baghdarlamalardyng aqshasyn úrlap, ótirik planshetter jasaghanymyz ýshin bәrimizge berilgen jaza. Biz osy zardapty әli biraz jyl tartatyn bolamyz.

Euraziyalyq ekonomikalyq odaq ebin tapqan memleketter ýshin jaman bolghan joq. Ekonomikasy kishkentay Armeniya, Qyrghyzstan, Belarusi siyaqty elder osynyng arqasynda jaqsy kóterildi. EAES olargha qút pen bereke әkeldi. Resey de biznes yqpalyn arttyrugha qosymsha mýmkindik aldy. Tәjikstan keremet óspese de, birshama enbek jәne logistikalyq mәselelerin sheshti. Odaqta tek Qazaqstannyng ghana ýmiti aqtalmaghan. Sebebi, biz 10 jyl búryn mentaldy túrghyda da, eptilik pen pysyqtyq jaghynan da múnday integrasiyalyq jobagha dayyn emes edik.

Salystyrmaly týrde, Odaq ishindegi 10 jylda biz Reseyge eksportymyzdy 49 payyzgha arttyrsaq, búl odaqqa kiruge asyqpaghan Ózbekstan Reseyge eksportyn 869 million dollardan 3,5 milliard dollargha deyin, yaghny tórt esege nemese 302 payyzgha kóbeytip alghan. Olargha Reseymen ortaq shekaranyng joqtyghy da dym kedergi bolghan joq.

2014 jyly odaqtyng kerek ekenin dәleldep million súhbat bergen sheneuikter men ekonomisterding eshbir teziysi oryndalmady. Olardyng barlyghy aramyzda jýr. Men tilshi qauymgha arhivterdi aqtaryp, sol súhbat bergenderding barlyghyn qaytadan әngimege shaqyrudy úsynar edim.

Aybar Oljaev, sarapshy

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