Qazaqstan Últtyq banki bazalyq mólsherlemeni 16,25%-gha deyin tómendetti, dep habarlaydy retteushining baspasóz qyzmeti.

«Qazaqstan Respublikasy Últtyq bankining Aqsha-kredit sayasaty komiyteti bazalyq mólsherlemeni +/- 1 payyzdyq tarmaq koridorymen jyldyq 16,25% dengeyinde belgileu turaly sheshim qabyldady. Sheshim boljamdy kezeng nәtiyjelerine, negizgi makroekonomikalyq kórsetkishterding janartylghan baghalaularyna jәne inflyasiya tәuekelderining tengerimine sýienedi», — delingen júmadaghy habarlamada.

Tamyz aiynda jyldyq inflyasiya qarqyny 9,8%-gha deyin bayaulaghany atap ótiledi.

«Dezinflyasiyalyq ýderis qatarynan 11 ay boyy jalghasyp keledi. Azyq-týlik inflyasiyasy 9,5%-gha deyin tómendedi. Negizgi faktorlar — jemister men kókónisterding aitarlyqtay arzandauy, sonday-aq importtyq baghalardyng tómendeui. Azyq-týlikke jatpaytyn tauarlar inflyasiyasynyng qarqyny tenge baghamynyng nyghangy ayasynda 11,4%-gha deyin bayaulady. Servistik inflyasiya rettelmeytin qyzmetter baghasynyng ósu qarqynynyng birshama bayaulauy esebinen 8,9%-gha deyin tómendedi. Aylyq inflyasiya tamyzda 0,6%-dy (shildede 0,6%), mausymdyq faktorlardan tazartylghanda — 0,9%-dy (shildede 0,7%) qúrady. Bazalyq inflyasiya 0,7% dengeyinde saqtaldy. Halyqtyng bir jyl aldaghy inflyasiyalyq kýtuleri shildede 13,4%-dan (mausymda) 12,1%-gha deyin tómendedi. Búl QOS (QÓS) mólsherlemesining jogharylauy, TÝKSh tarifteri men azyq-týlik baghasynyng ósuine qatysty alandaushylyqtyng azangymen baylanysty. Sonymen qatar kýtulerde JJM baghasynyng ósu faktorynyng yqpaly kýsheydi. Naryqtyng kәsiby qatysushylarynyng 2026 jyldyng sonyna arnalghan kýtuleri 10% dengeyinde saqtalyp otyr», — dep naqtylady Últtyq bankte.

Retteushining mәlimetinshe, syrtqy sektordaghy jaghday turaqsyz kýide qalyp otyr.

«Tayau Shyghystaghy jalghasyp jatqan qaqtyghys energiya tasymaldaushylardyng joghary baghasyn ústap túr jәne syrtqy inflyasiyalyq qysymdy kýsheytedi. Búl jaghdayda jetekshi ortalyq bankterding ritorikasy katang sipatyn saqtaydy. Álemdik azyq-týlik baghasy dәndi daqyldar men ósimdik maylary esebinen birshama ósti, al et baghasy úzaq uaqyt ishinde alghash ret tómendedi. Reseyde inflyasiya ornyqty bolyp qaluda. Janarmay naryghyndaghy irkilister ayasynda proinflyasiyalyq tәuekelder saqtaluda. Shildedegi negizgi mólsherlemening tómendeuine qaramastan, Resey Bankining ritorikasy qatanday týsti. EO-da inflyasiya negizinen energiya tasymaldaushylar baghasynyng ósui esebinen birshama jedeldedi. EOB songhy otyrysynda mólsherlemelerdi ózgerissiz qaldyrdy. AQSh-ta inflyasiya bayaulady, biraq maqsatty dengeyden joghary bolyp qaluda. Osyghan baylanysty FRS mólsherlemeni ózgerissiz saqtaydy», — delingen habarlamada.

Aqparatqa sәikes, 2026 jylgha arnalghan inflyasiya boyynsha boljam ózgerissiz qaldy: ol 9-11% aralyghynda kýtiledi.

«Bagha ósimining bayaulauyna qalypty qatang aqsha-kredit sharttary men tengening nyghayghan baghamy yqpal etedi. Qosymsha shekteushi әserdi 2026 jylghy qyrkýiektegi eng tómengi rezervtik talaptardy arttyrudyng songhy kezeni qamtamasyz etedi. 2027 jylgha arnalghan boljam syrtqy inflyasiyanyng ósuine, retteletin baghalar alghysharttarynyng qayta qaraluyna, sonday-aq fiskaldyq impulisting artuyna baylanysty 6,5–8,5%-gha deyin (búghan deyin 5,5–7,5%) jogharylatu jaghyna qaray qayta qaraldy. Búl rette aqsha-kredit sayasatynyng jinaqtalghan qatandyghy inflyasiyalyq qysymdy shekteudi jәne bagha ósimining odan әri bayaulauyna yqpal etudi jalghastyrady. 2028 jyly syrtqy inflyasiyalyq fonnyng qalypqa kelui, fiskaldyq konsolidasiya, ishki súranystyng qalyptasuy jәne qalypty qatang aqsha-kredit sharttary ayasynda inflyasiyalyq kýtulerding tómendeui shamasyna qaray inflyasiya 5% maqsatyna juyq túraqtalady», — dep tolyqtyrdy retteushi.

Inflyasiya tәuekelderining tengerimi proinflyasiyalyq jaqqa qaray auytqyghan kýide qalatyny habarlanady. Negizgi tәuekelder fiskaldyq impulisting kýshengi ayasynda ishki súranystyng kenenimen, túraqsyz inflyasiyalyq kýtulermen, JJM baghasy men TÝKSh tarifterining odan әri dinamikasymen baylanysty. Syrtqy tәuekelder geosayasy shiyelenisting yqtimal kýsheiine baylanysty әlemdik azyq-týlik jәne energiya tasymaldaushylar baghasynyng ósuimen týsindiriledi.

«Bazalyq ssenariyde 2026 jylgha arnalghan JÓÓ (JÚÓ) ósimining boljamy ózgerissiz qaldy jәne 4,5-5,5% dengeyinde baghalanady. Ekonomikalyq belsendilikti kvazifiskaldyq yntalandyru baghdarlamalaryn iske asyru jәne túraqty tútynushylyq súranys ayasynda joghary investisiyalyq belsendilik qoldap otyrady. Últtyq bankting ótken boljamdy kezenining alghysharttarymen jәne Ýkimetting Áleumettik-ekonomikalyq damu boljamynyng aldynghy parametrlerimen salystyrghanda, 2027 jyly fiskaldyq yntalandyru kólemining artuy kýtilude, búl investisiyalyq jәne tútynushylyq belsendilikke qoldau kórsetedi. Búl rette TShO-daghy jóndeu júmystarynyng 2026 jyldan 2027 jylgha auystyryluy esebinen 2027 jylghy múnay óndiruding әlsiz boljamdy dinamikasy ishki súranystyng kenenin ishinara tenestiretin bolady. 2027 jyly JÓÓ ósimi 4,5% sheginde qalyptasady. 2028 jyly salalyq jәne jýielik reformalardy iske asyru әserinen, josparlanghan fiskaldyq yntalandyrudy keneytuden, sonday-aq múnay óndiru men eksportty qalpyna keltiruden 2028 jyly JÓÓ ósimining 4-5%-gha deyin (búryn 3,5-4,5%) jedeldeui kýtilude», — dep habarlady Últtyq bankte.

Aghymdaghy inflyasiya men inflyasiyalyq kýtulerding ong dinamikasy osy sheshim shenberinde bazalyq mólsherlemeni tómendetuge mýmkindik bergeni atap ótiledi.

«Búl rette 2027 jylgha arnalghan boljamdy baghalaulardyng qayta qaraluyna әser etken proinflyasiyalyq faktorlar men tәuekelderding kýshengi jaghdayynda odan әri tómendetu kenistigi shekteuli. Keyingi sheshimder kelip týsetin inflyasiya derekterine, onyng boljamdy traektoriyagha sәikestigine, ishki súranys dinamikasyna, inflyasiyalyq kýtulerge jәne retteletin baghalargha, sonday-aq fiskaldyq jәne kvazifiskaldyq yntalandyrudyng auqymy men әserine qaray qabyldanatyn bolady. Aqsha-kredit sayasaty inflyasiyany 2028 jyly orta merzimdi 5% maqsatyna deyin tómendetuge baghyttalady», — delingen habarlamada.

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