Amerikalyq sayasattanushy Frensis Fukuyama әlemdi dýr silkindirgen jana maqalasynda Reseyding Ukrainada tolyq jeniliske úshyraytynyn boljaydy. Fukuyamanyng pikirinshe, Putin ukrain halqynyng okkupasiyagha qarsy túru sheshimin dúrys baghalamay qatelesti, әri onyng býkil eldi baghyndyrugha әskery resurstary jetpeydi.

Búl jaghday Kremli basshysynyng ashuyn tughyzyp, shiyelenisti odan әri ushyqtyruda. Nәtiyjesinde beybit túrghyndar arasyndaghy qúrbandar sany artyp, infraqúrylymdar qirap jatyr. Ukraina preziydenti Vladimir Zelenskiy jaghdaydyng óte shúghyl әri qauipti ekenin eskertkenimen, Fukuyama tek Reseyding tez arada jeniluine qatysty optimistik kózqarasyn bildiredi.

Ol múnday nәtiyjening býkil әlem ýshin tarihy әri úzaq merzimdi saldary bolatynyn aitady: Reseyding jenilisi jahandyq demokratiyany qúldyraudan saqtap qalady, al 1989 jylghy bostandyq ruhy batyl ukraindyqtardyng arqasynda qayta janghyrady. Degenmen, býkil әlemde, sonyng ishinde Batys elderinde de neoliyberaldy avtoritarizmning kýshengi keybir sarapshylardyng búl teziske kýmәnmen qarauyna sebep boluda.

Reseyding Ukrainany basyp alyp, ony jenildikterge barugha mәjbýrleytindey әskery kýshi jetkiliksiz. Ukraina — 40 million halqy bar el, al Putin óz әskerining basym bóligin maydangha jiberip qoyghan. Orystar ýshin múnday qorshaudy ústap túru óte qymbatqa týsude. Olar kýn sayyn ýlken mólsherde brondalghan tehnikasynan, jeke qúramynan jәne oq-dәrilerinen aiyryluda. Sonday-aq Resey armiyasynyng jauyngerlik ruhy óte tómen.

Fukuyamanyng payymdauynsha, búl soghystyng basty nәtiyjeleri mynaday:

1. Putin soghystyng bastapqy tarihy maqsatynan aiyryldy. Mәskeu soghysty Ukrainanyng birneshe aimaghyn basyp alu ýshin ghana bastaghan joq. Týpki maqsat әldeqayda auqymdy boldy: Ukrainany tolyq baghyndyru, onyng Batyspen integrasiyalanuyna jol bermeu jәne postkenestik kenistiktegi Reseyding yqpalyn qalpyna keltiru. Búl jospar iske aspady. Kerisinshe, soghys mýldem qarama-qarsy nәtiyje berdi: Ukraina últ retinde birigip, Batysqa tolyq bet búrdy.

2. Aumaqty әskery jolmen basyp alu da Kremliding basty mәselesin sheshpeydi. Búl — eng manyzdy aspektilerding biri. Resey taghy biraz jerdi basyp aldy delik, búl Ukrainany 2021 jylghy mәrtebesine qaytara almaydy jәne ukraindyq últtyq biregeylikti joya almaydy. Basqasha aitqanda, Putin belgili bir aumaqtardy iyemdengenimen, ózining strategiyalyq maqsatynan jenildi.

3. Resey NATO-ny kýsheytip aldy. Búl — Fukuyama 2022 jyldan beri nazar audaryp kele jatqan soghys paradokstarynyng biri. Resey NATO-ny óz shekarasynan alystatugha tyrysty, biraq onyng ornyna Finlyandiya men Shvesiyanyng qosyluy arqyly aliyanstyng kenenine әri búrynghydan da quatty, birtútas úiymgha ainaluyna sebepker boldy.

4. Ukraina tәuelsiz europalyq memleket retinde qalyptasty. Fukuyama búl soghysty tek armiyalar arasyndaghy qaqtyghys emes, sayasy biregeylikter kýresi retinde de qarastyrady. Osy túrghydan alghanda, Reseyding basyp kirui Mәskeuding aldyn alghysy kelgen ýderisti tezdetti: ukraindyq biregeylik aiqyn antiyreseylik jәne europalyq sipatqa ie boldy.

5. Uaqyt Reseyding paydasyna júmys istep jatqan joq. Ol avtoritarlyq rejimderding bir adamgha negizdelgen jýiesi kenetten kýiregenge deyin óte túraqty bolyp kórinui mýmkin ekenin aitady. Syrtqy túraqtylyghyna qaramastan, Resey jýiesi Ukraina jýiesinen búryn kýireui de mýmkin.

Sonymen qatar Fukuyama avtoritarizmning basty ereksheligin atap ótedi: múnday rejim daghdarysqa deyin óte kýshti bolyp kórinui mýmkin, sebebi býkil jýie naqty mәselelerdi qoghamnan da, kóshbasshynyng ózinen de jasyrady.

«Putin qazirding ózinde jenildi» degen sóz «Ukraina jendi» degendi bildirmeydi. Búl — eki bólek mәlimdeme. Fukuyama Putinning bastapqy sayasy jobasynyng strategiyalyq jenilisi turaly aityp otyr.

Resey soghysty әli de jalghastyra alady, basyp alghan aumaqtardy ústap túruy, Ukrainagha orasan zor ziyan keltirui jәne taktikalyq әskery tabystargha jetui mýmkin.

Sondyqtan onyng ústanymyn bylay týiindeuge bolady: Putin keybir shayqastarda jeniske jetip, qosymsha aumaqtardy basyp aluy mýmkin, biraq ol óz shartymen tanylghan Ukraina men jana europalyq tәrtipke endi eshqashan qol jetkize almaydy.

Kerimsal Júbatqanov

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