«TÓNKERISTEN» KEYINGI UKRAINA
2014 jylghy Ukrainadaghy biylikting auysuy elding ekonomikalyq órkendeuine keri әserin tiygizdi. Atap aitqanda, 2014 jyldyng qorytyndysy boyynsha elding IJÓ 2013 jylghy 183 310 mln. dollarmen salystyrghanda 131 805 mln. AQSh dollaryna deyin qysqardy.
Osy kezende Ukraina halqynyng әl-auqaty kýrt tómendedi: IJÓ halyqtyng jan basyna shaqqanda 25%-gha, 4030 dollardan 3014 dollargha deyin týsti. Degenmen 2010 jylghy 2974 dollardan 2013 jyly 4030 dollargha deyin túraqty ósu atap ótilgen bolatyn.
Euromaydan kóshbasshylary elding ekonomikasyndaghy daghdarystyng asqynuyn jene almady. Atap aitqanda, 2014 jylghy II toqsannan bastap ekonomikalyq jaghdaylar «domino» qisyny (logika) boyynsha ótti – óndiristing qysqaruy, júmyspen qamtu dengeyining tómen týsui, kirister men súranystardyng tómendeui.
Qarsy kýresushi taraptardyng bólinu baghyttaryndaghy shiyelenisushilik, psihologiyalyq soghystyng shiyelenisui, Reseymen (iri sauda-ekonomikalyq әriptespen) ekonomikalyq daudyng órshui, ukrainalyq kompaniyalardyng belsendiligin toqtatugha , azamattardy – «kýn kóriske»(nemese qonys audarugha) kóshuge iytermeledi. Ukraina ekonomikasy auqymy jәne saldary boyynsha 1990 jyldardaghy tómendeuge jaqyn ekinshi tereng qúldyraugha әkeldi.
1 keste – 2002-2015 jyldardaghy Ukrainanyng IJÓ dinamikasy (serpini)
|
2002-2015 jyldardaghy Ukrainanyng IJÓ dinamikasy |
||||||
|
|
Atauly IJÓ ( mln.grn.) |
IJÓ (mln.USD) |
||||
|
2002 |
225810 |
42393 |
||||
|
2003 |
267344 |
+41534 |
+18.4% |
50133 |
+7740 |
+18.3% |
|
2004 |
345113 |
+77769 |
+29.1% |
64883 |
+14750 |
+29.4% |
|
2005 |
441452 |
+96339 |
+27.9% |
86142 |
+21259 |
+32.8% |
|
2006 |
544153 |
+102701 |
+23.3% |
107753 |
+21611 |
+25.1% |
|
2007 |
720731 |
+176578 |
+32.5% |
142719 |
+34966 |
+32.5% |
|
2008 |
948056 |
+227325 |
+31.5% |
179992 |
+37273 |
+26.1% |
|
2009 |
913345 |
-34711 |
-3.7% |
117228 |
-62765 |
-34.9% |
|
2010 |
1082569 |
+169224 |
+18.5% |
136419 |
+19192 |
+16.4% |
|
2011 |
1316600 |
+234031 |
+21.6% |
163160 |
+26740 |
+19.6% |
|
2012 |
1408889 |
+92289 |
+7.0% |
175781 |
+12622 |
+7.7% |
|
2013 |
1454931 |
+46042 |
+3.3% |
183310 |
+7529 |
+4.3% |
|
2014 |
1566728 |
+111797 |
+7.7% |
131805 |
-51505 |
-28.1% |
|
2015 |
1979458 |
+412730 |
+26.3% |
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Ukraina Qarjy ministrligining mәlimeti
2 keste - 2002-2015 jyldardaghy Ukrainanyng halyqtyng jan basyna shaqqandaghy IJÓ dinamikasy
|
Halyqtyng jan basyna shaqqandaghy atauly IJÓ (grn.) |
Halyqtyng jan basyna shaqqandaghy IJÓ ( USD) |
halyq |
|||||
|
2002 |
4681,9 |
879,0 |
48230.3 |
||||
|
2003 |
5591,5 |
+909.5 |
+19.4% |
1048,5 |
+169.6 |
+19.3% |
47813.0 |
|
2004 |
7272,9 |
+1681.5 |
+30.1% |
1367,4 |
+318.8 |
+30.4% |
47451.6 |
|
2005 |
9371,6 |
+2098.7 |
+28.9% |
1828,7 |
+461.4 |
+33.7% |
47105.2 |
|
2006 |
11630,2 |
+2258.6 |
+24.1% |
2303,0 |
+474.3 |
+25.9% |
46787.8 |
|
2007 |
15496,5 |
+3866.2 |
+33.2% |
3068,6 |
+765.6 |
+33.2% |
46509.4 |
|
2008 |
20494,9 |
+4998.4 |
+32.3% |
3891,0 |
+822.4 |
+26.8% |
46258.2 |
|
2009 |
19832,3 |
-662.5 |
-3.2% |
2545,5 |
-1345.6 |
-34.6% |
46053.3 |
|
2010 |
23600,4 |
+3768.1 |
+19.0% |
2974,0 |
+428.5 |
+16.8% |
45870.7 |
|
2011 |
28813,9 |
+5213.4 |
+22.1% |
3570,8 |
+596.8 |
+20.1% |
45693.3 |
|
2012 |
30912,5 |
+2098.6 |
+7.3% |
3856,8 |
+286.1 |
+8.0% |
45576.7 |
|
2013 |
31988,7 |
+1076.2 |
+3.5% |
4030,3 |
+173.5 |
+4.5% |
45482.7 |
|
2014 |
35834,0 |
+3845.3 |
+12.0% |
3014,6 |
-1015.7 |
-25.2% |
43721.8 |
|
2015 |
46210,2 |
+10376.1 |
+29.0% |
42836.0 |
|||
* jylyna ortasha
Ukraina Qarjy ministrligining mәlimeti
Ekonomikanyng qazirgi jaghdayy defoltqa úshyrau mýmkindigin kórsetedi. 2015 jylgha qaray Ukrainanyng syrtqy jalpy qaryzy kýrt ósip, elding IJÓ-ning 95%-na jetti, yaghny búl ózining syrtqy mindettemeleri boyynsha eldin defoltqa úshyrau tәuekelderin tughyzady.
3 keste - Ukrainanyng syrtqy qaryzynyng dinamikasy
|
2007-2015 jyldardaghy Ukrainanyng syrtqy qaryzy men IJÓ dinamikasy ( mln. AQSh doll.) |
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|
Jalpy syrtqy qaryz (JSQ) |
Ishki jalpy ónim (IJÓ) |
(JSQ / IJÓ) araqatynasy |
||||||
|
na 01.01.2007 |
54512 |
za 2006 |
107753 |
50.6% |
||||
|
na 01.01.2008 |
79955 |
+25443 |
+46.7% |
za 2007 |
142719 |
+34966 |
+32.5% |
56.0% |
|
na 01.01.2009 |
101659 |
+21704 |
+27.1% |
za 2008 |
179992 |
+37273 |
+26.1% |
56.5% |
|
na 01.01.2010 |
103396 |
+1737 |
+1.7% |
za 2009 |
117228 |
-62765 |
-34.9% |
88.2% |
|
na 01.01.2011 |
117343 |
+13947 |
+13.5% |
za 2010 |
136419 |
+19192 |
+16.4% |
86.0% |
|
na 01.01.2012 |
126236 |
+8893 |
+7.6% |
za 2011 |
163160 |
+26740 |
+19.6% |
77.4% |
|
na 01.01.2013 |
135065 |
+8829 |
+7.0% |
za 2012 |
175781 |
+12622 |
+7.7% |
76.8% |
|
na 01.01.2014 |
142079 |
+7014 |
+5.2% |
za 2013 |
183310 |
+7529 |
+4.3% |
77.5% |
|
na 01.01.2015 |
126308 |
-15771 |
-11.1% |
za 2014 |
131805 |
-51505 |
-28.1% |
95.8% |
Ukraina Qarjy ministrligining mәlimeti
2015 jylghy aqpanda qorshaghan ortany qorghaugha, túrghyn-ýy kommunaldyq sharuashylyghyna shyghyndar tómendetilgen bolatyn. TKSh shyghyndary búnyng aldyndaghy jylghy úqsas kezenmen salystyrghanda 69%-gha, yaghny 640 mln.grn. azaydy. Búl memlekettik budjetten jergilikti budjetke tariftik aiyrmashylyq boyynsha 1650 mln.grn. somasyndaghy qaryzdy jabudaghy jәrdemqarjygha baylanysty oryn alghan jaghday.
Densaulyq saqtaugha, ruhany jәne fizikalyq damugha, bilimge, әleumettik qorghaugha jәne әleumettik qamszdandyrugha júmsalatyn shyghyndar qysqartyldy. Jalpy búl әser Gresiya men basqa elderdegi jaghdaylardyng mysaly retinde belgili – aghymdaghy rejimde shyghyndardy qysqartu súranysty tejeydi.
Tereng qúldyrau men budjettik daghdarys jaghdayynda memlekettik mindettemeler boyynsha defolt kýn tәrtibinde túr, әsirese eger ýkimet boryshty qayta qúrylmday almasa.
Biraq HVQ baghdarlamasy ayasynda ukraindyq memleket pen ekonomikanyng qajetti reformalar jýrgizu qiyndyghy anyqtaldy.
Daghdarys negizinde songhy shiyrek ghasyrda elding әleumettik-ekonomikalyq damuynyng tómengi («jyrtyq») qarqynyn tughyzghan institusionaldy sebepter jatyr. Transformasiya jәne institusionaldy problemalardyng bastapqy kezenindegi daghdarystyng saldary Ukrainanyng makroekonomikalyq kórsetkishter boyynsha kóshilerinen aitarlyqtay artta qaluy boldy. Ukrainada halyqtyng jan basyna shaqqandaghy IJÓ kórshi elderge qaraghanda edәuir tómen. 2013 jyly Ukrainada SAQT boyynsha halyqtyng jan basyna shaqqandaghy IJÓ kórsetkishi 1992-2007 jyldardaghy dengeyde (2011 jyly 8,5 myng dollar) boldy., jәne sonymen qatar taghy da 1990 jylghy dengeyden (10,5 myng dollar) 20%-gha tómen boldy.
Ukraina halqynyng әl-auqaty tómendeude jәne inflyasiyanyng joghary kórsetkishine baylanysty: eger 2013 jylghy inflyasiya kórsetkishi 100,5 payyzdy qúrasa, 2015 jylghy inflyasiya 143,3 payyzdy qúrady.
4 keste - Ukrainadaghy inflyasiya indeksining dinamikasy
|
2000-2016 jyldar aralyghyndaghy inflyasiya indeksining jiyntyq kestesi |
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|
|
qantar |
aqpan |
nauryz |
sәuir |
mamyr |
mausym |
shilde |
tamyz |
qyrkýiek |
qazan |
qarasha |
jeltoqsan |
Za god |
|
2000 |
104,6 |
103,3 |
102,0 |
101,7 |
102,1 |
103,7 |
99,9 |
100,0 |
102,6 |
101,4 |
100,4 |
101,6 |
125,8 |
|
2001 |
101,5 |
100,6 |
100,6 |
101,5 |
100,4 |
100,6 |
98,3 |
99,8 |
100,4 |
100,2 |
100,5 |
101,6 |
106,1 |
|
2002 |
101,0 |
98,6 |
99,3 |
101,4 |
99,7 |
98,2 |
98,5 |
99,8 |
100,2 |
100,7 |
100,7 |
101,4 |
99,4 |
|
2003 |
101,5 |
101,1 |
101,1 |
100,7 |
100,0 |
100,1 |
99,9 |
98,3 |
100,6 |
101,3 |
101,9 |
101,5 |
108,2 |
|
2004 |
101,4 |
100,4 |
100,4 |
100,7 |
100,7 |
100,7 |
100,0 |
99,9 |
101,3 |
102,2 |
101,6 |
102,4 |
112,3 |
|
2005 |
101,7 |
101,0 |
101,6 |
100,7 |
100,6 |
100,6 |
100,3 |
100,0 |
100,4 |
100,9 |
101,2 |
100,9 |
110,3 |
|
2006 |
101,2 |
101,8 |
99,7 |
99,6 |
100,5 |
100,1 |
100,9 |
100,0 |
102,0 |
102,6 |
101,8 |
100,9 |
111,6 |
|
2007 |
100,5 |
100,6 |
100,2 |
100,0 |
100,6 |
102,2 |
101,4 |
100,6 |
102,2 |
102,9 |
102,2 |
102,1 |
116,6 |
|
2008 |
102,9 |
102,7 |
103,8 |
103,1 |
101,3 |
100,8 |
99,5 |
99,9 |
101,1 |
101,7 |
101,5 |
102,1 |
122,3 |
|
2009 |
102,9 |
101,5 |
101,4 |
100,9 |
100,5 |
101,1 |
99,9 |
99,8 |
100,8 |
100,9 |
101,1 |
100,9 |
112,3 |
|
2010 |
101,8 |
101,9 |
100,9 |
99,7 |
99,4 |
99,6 |
99,8 |
101,2 |
102,9 |
100,5 |
100,3 |
100,8 |
109,1 |
|
2011 |
101,0 |
100,9 |
101,4 |
101,3 |
100,8 |
100,4 |
98,7 |
99,6 |
100,1 |
100,0 |
100,1 |
100,2 |
104,6 |
|
2012 |
100,2 |
100,2 |
100,3 |
100,0 |
99,7 |
99,7 |
99,8 |
99,7 |
100,1 |
100,0 |
99,9 |
100,2 |
99,8 |
|
2013 |
100,2 |
99,9 |
100,0 |
100,0 |
100,1 |
100,0 |
99,9 |
99,3 |
100,0 |
100,4 |
100,2 |
100,5 |
100,5 |
|
2014 |
100,2 |
100,6 |
102,2 |
103,3 |
103,8 |
101,0 |
100,4 |
100,8 |
102,9 |
102,4 |
101,9 |
103,0 |
124,9 |
|
2015 |
103,1 |
105,3 |
110,8 |
114,0 |
102,2 |
100,4 |
99,0 |
99,2 |
102,3 |
98,7 |
102,0 |
100,7 |
143,3 |
|
2016 |
100,9 |
99,6 |
101,0 |
101,5 |
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Ukraina Qarjy ministrligining mәlimeti
Ukraina ekonomikasynyng naqty ósimining tómendeuine baylanysty, 2015 jyly 9,5%-gha jetken júmyssyzdyq dengeyi artty.
5 keste - 2000-2015 jyldarda Ukrainadaghy júmyssyzdyq dengeyi
|
2000-2015 jyldarda Ukrainadaghy júmyssyzdyq dengeyi. |
||||||
|
|
Barlyq halyq |
Ekonomikalyq belsendi halyq |
Júmysy bar halyq |
Júmyssyz halyq* |
Júmyssyzdyq dengeyi |
Tirkelgen júmyssyzdar |
|
2000 |
48923,2 |
21150,7 |
18520,7 |
2630,0 |
12,4% |
1178,7 |
|
2001 |
48457,1 |
20893,6 |
18453,3 |
2440,3 |
11,7% |
1063,2 |
|
2002 |
48003,5 |
20669,5 |
18540,9 |
2128,6 |
10,3% |
1028,1 |
|
2003 |
47622,4 |
20618,1 |
18624,1 |
1994,0 |
9,7% |
1024,2 |
|
2004 |
47280,8 |
20582,5 |
18694,3 |
1888,2 |
9,2% |
975,5 |
|
2005 |
46929,5 |
20481,7 |
18886,5 |
1595,2 |
7,8% |
891,9 |
|
2006 |
46646,0 |
20545,9 |
19032,2 |
1513,7 |
7,4% |
784,5 |
|
2007 |
46372,7 |
20606,2 |
19189,5 |
1416,7 |
6,9% |
673,1 |
|
2008 |
46143,7 |
20675,7 |
19251,7 |
1424,0 |
6,9% |
596,0 |
|
2009 |
45962,9 |
20321,6 |
18365,0 |
1956,6 |
9,6% |
693,1 |
|
2010 |
45778,5 |
20220,7 |
18436,5 |
1784,2 |
8,8% |
452,1 |
|
2011 |
45633,6 |
20247,9 |
18516,2 |
1731,7 |
8,6% |
505,3 |
|
2012 |
45553,0 |
20393,5 |
18736,9 |
1656,6 |
8,1% |
467,7 |
|
2013 |
45426,2 |
20478,2 |
18901,8 |
1576,4 |
7,7% |
487,6 |
|
2014 |
42928,9 |
19035,2 |
17188,1 |
1847,1 |
9,7% |
458,6 |
|
2015 |
42760,5 |
17396,0 |
15742,0 |
1654,0 |
9,5% |
461,1 |
* po metodologiy MOT
Ukraina Qarjy ministrligining mәlimeti
Ukrainanyng ekonomikasyndaghy jәne әleumettik salasyndaghy dramalyq oqighalar elden halyqtyng kóptep basqa elge qonys audaruyn tughyzdy. Eger 1990 jyly Ukraina halqy 51,8 mln. adamdy qúraghan bolsa, 2016 jyldyng basynda el halqy 17 payyzgha qysqardy jәne 42,8 mln. adamdy qúrady.
|
1990-2016 jyldardaghy Ukraina halqynyng sany |
|||
|
Kýni |
Sany (myn.) |
|
|
|
na 01.01.1990 |
51838,5 |
||
|
na 01.01.1991 |
51944,4 |
+105.9 |
+0.204% |
|
na 01.01.1992 |
52056,6 |
+112.2 |
+0.216% |
|
na 01.01.1993 |
52244,1 |
+187.5 |
+0.360% |
|
na 01.01.1994 |
52114,4 |
-129.7 |
-0.248% |
|
na 01.01.1995 |
51728,4 |
-386.0 |
-0.741% |
|
na 01.01.1996 |
51297,1 |
-431.3 |
-0.834% |
|
na 01.01.1997 |
50818,4 |
-478.7 |
-0.933% |
|
na 01.01.1998 |
50370,8 |
-447.6 |
-0.881% |
|
na 01.01.1999 |
49918,1 |
-452.7 |
-0.899% |
|
na 01.01.2000 |
49429,8 |
-488.3 |
-0.978% |
|
na 01.01.2001 |
48923,2 |
-506.6 |
-1.025% |
|
na 01.01.2002 |
48457,1 |
-466.1 |
-0.953% |
|
na 01.01.2003 |
48003,5 |
-453.6 |
-0.936% |
|
na 01.01.2004 |
47622,4 |
-381.1 |
-0.794% |
|
na 01.01.2005 |
47280,8 |
-341.6 |
-0.717% |
|
na 01.01.2006 |
46929,5 |
-351.3 |
-0.743% |
|
na 01.01.2007 |
46646,0 |
-283.5 |
-0.604% |
|
na 01.01.2008 |
46372,7 |
-273.3 |
-0.586% |
|
na 01.01.2009 |
46143,7 |
-229.0 |
-0.494% |
|
na 01.01.2010 |
45962,9 |
-180.8 |
-0.392% |
|
na 01.01.2011 |
45778,5 |
-184.4 |
-0.401% |
|
na 01.01.2012 |
45633,6 |
-144.9 |
-0.317% |
|
na 01.01.2013 |
45553,0 |
-80.6 |
-0.177% |
|
na 01.01.2014 |
45426,2 |
-126.8 |
-0.278% |
|
na 01.01.2015 |
42928,9 |
-2497.3 |
-5.497% |
|
na 01.01.2016 |
42760,5 |
-168.4 |
-0.392% |
* 2002 jylghy sany Býkilukrainalyq halyq sanaghy (jeltoqsan 2001) mәlimetterining negizinde keltirildi.
Osy jaghdaylardan keyin Ukrainadaghy otbasylardyng edәuir bóligining jaghdayyna orasan túraqtandyrushy yqpal etetin ukraindyq gastarbayterlerdin aghyny da ózgerdi.
2005-2008 jyldardaghy Ukrainanyng jalghyz ekonomikalyq kóterilui birneshe jaghymdy faktorlarmen – temir baghasynyng ósui, V.ngshenkonyng kezindegi alys-beristing ósuine sәikes keluimen negizdeldi.
Biraq Reseydegi ukrainalyq júmysshylardyng enbekaqysynyng artuy jәne ýlken júmys kýshin talap etken Reseydegi ekonomikalyq kóterilu men múnay baghasynyng ósuimen sәikes kelgen Ukrainagha jekelegen aqshalay audarymdardyng ósui orasan zor ról atqardy.
Songhy 5 jyl ishinde Ukrainagha audarymdar shamamen IJÓ 5%-y dengeyinde túraqtady.
2013 jyly Ukrainagha Dýniyejýzilik bankting baghalauy boyynsha tek statistikalyq kózge kórinerlik jekelegen aqshalay audarymdar 9,7 mlrd doll. qúrady, biraq 2014 jyly ol 7,6 mlrd doll. deyin tómendedi. Búl birneshe sebepterge baylanysty boluy mýmkin:
- · Reseydegi qúldyrau jәne kózge kórinerlik audarymdardyng qysqaruy, degenmen olardyng edәuir bóligi, bәlkim esepke alynbaydy;
· ukraindyq azamattardyng óz elderinen kóshui jәne aghyndardyng geografiyalyq qayta baghdarlanuy;
- · túrghyn ýy qúrylysynyng qysqaruy jәne otbasy qarajatyn investisiyalaudyng tómendeui – olardyng qarjylyq tәrtibindegi ózgerister.
Shiyelenis, el ishindegi súranystyng qúldyrauy jәne eksporttaudyng toqyrauy jaghdayynda biznesti investisiyalau qisyny qyzmetkerler men ónimdi shygharudy qysqaruynda ghana emes, sonday-aq ótimdi aktivterdi shygharugha olardyng saqtaluy ýshin damyudyng úzaq merzimdi josparlaudan ótudi bildiretin ózgeristerge úshyrady. Osylaysha ekonomikanyng bolashaqtaghy ósuining negizi búzylady.
Atalghan jaghdayda, 2009 jyly bastau alghan 1990 jyldardan keyingi ekinshi «investisiyalyq shúnqyr» bayqalady. Metall baghasynyng tómendeui jәne basqa da faktorlar asqynghan shiyelenispen 2013 jyldan bastap jinaqtaludyng qysqartyluyn eskertken bolatyn.
Ekonomikalyq belsendilikting qysqartyluy ayasynda batys memleketterining ýkimetterining jәne halyqaralyq úiymdardyng joghary jemqorlyq pen әlsiz qúqyqtyq instituttary bar elderge kómek kórsetuding tiyimsizdiginen sharshaghandyqtary kórinedi. Sheteldik azamattardy ministrler retinde paydalanu әreketi Ukrainanyng sayasy elitasyna Batystyng senimsizdik belgisi kórinedi – shyn mәninde búl «gibridtik basqarudy» ornatu. «Batys» keng maghynadaghy sóz tútastay eldi ústaugha dayyn emes – reformalar oghan ózbetinshe ekonomikalyq daghdarystan shyghugha mýmkindik beredi dep boljanady.
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