Shy tóraghanyng Qazaqstangha saparynyng týp maqsaty ne?

Songhy kýnderi Qytay tóraghasy Shy Jipiynning Qazaqstangha saparynyng ras-shyny men ol kózdeytin yqtimal maqsattary ayasynda elding ishki-syrtqy aqparattary men sarapshylar arasynda topshylanyp, týrli boljamdar jasaluda. Elishilik aqparat Qazaq-Qytay arasynda biraz kelisimderge qol qoyylmaq degennen aspasa, sheteldik, qytay tildi aqparat pen sarapshylar: songhy jyldary shetelge attap baspaghan, qazanda ótpek Qytay biyligi ýshin asa manyzdy QKP-synyng 20- qúryltayy ótu qarsanyndaghy qauyrt júmystaryn ysyryp qoyyp, el ishindegi kýrdeli sayasy tartystargha qaramastan Qazaqstangha saparlauyna sene alar emes. Rasynda, Qytay ýshin ekonomikalyq hәm sayasy salmaghy jenildeu Qazaqstangha saparynyng qatparynda basqa qanday maqsat-mýdde jatuy mýmkin? Tómende osy taqyryp tónireginde azdap sóz qozghamaqpyz.

Songhy bes jylda AQSh-tyng Qytaygha qaratqan sayasy strategiyasy ýlken ózgeriske úshyrady. Yaghni, Tayau Shyghystan Aziya tynyq múhiyt, odan Ýndi-Tynyq múqit geostrategiyasyna bet aldy. Maqsaty ekonomikalyq kýrt ósuden imperlik ambisiyasy ósken Qytay qaterin auyzdyqtau ekeni belgili. Osy maqsatta AQSh salghan ekonomikalyq, tehnologiyalyq sanksiyalar Qytay ekonomikasyna ýlken shyghyn әkelip jatqanyn bilemiz. 2008 jyldan beri Batys sanksiyalaryna ilikken Resey men 2017 jyly AQSh sanksiyasyna týsken Iran – Qytaydyng AQSh-qa qarsy odaqtasyna ainalyp shygha kelgen-di. Dese de búl «odaqtaghylardyn» óz ishki esepteri men mýddeleri bar-túghyn. Qytay Shyghys jәne Ontýstik Aziyany shengelinde ústau arqyly Aziyanyng qojalyghyna qol sozsa, Resey Ukraina, Kavkaz jәne Ortalyq Aziyany tizgindeu arqyly Euraziya kenistiginining iyesi boludy kózdeude. Al Irannyng Tayau Shyghysqa degen yqpal ýshin biraz qareketke barghany bolmasa, «odaqtastary» siyaqty aimaqqa, kórshi-qolanyna kýsh kórsetip, tize batyruy joqtyng qasy.

Tayau Shyghys aimaghynda Tehran ýshin eki qarsylasy bar – Izrail men Saud Arabiyasy, nemese kerisinshe. Iran bes jyldan beri AQSh-tyng sanksiyasyna úshyrauda. D.Taramp búzghan «yadrolyq kelisimdi» qalpyna keltiruge, sanksiyadan qútylyp, energiya eksportyn qalypqa keltiruge, ekonomikany jaqsartugha mýddeli. Áriyne, strategiyalyq odaqtasy Europanyng energiyalyq múqtajy ýshin bolsa da kelisimdi qoldaugha Dj Bayden ýkimeti de qúlyqty. Osy maqsatta Aq ýy men Europa elderi tezdetip Iranmen kelisimge kelip, Resey gazyna balamany Iran gazymen toltyrudy kózeude. Áriyne, búl Mәskeu men Pekinge únamaydy. Jaqynda, kelisimge qol qoyar qarsanynda Atom Quaty Halqaralyq Agenttigi (MAGATE) Irandaghy eki nysangha kýmәn keltirdi. Osy sebepti kelisim kedergige úshyrap, keyinge qaldy. Izrail de «dәlelderin» úsynyp, kelisimge qarsylyghyn ýdete týsude. Osylaysha kelisim prossesi songhy satysynda toqtap túr. Búl endigi jerde qalay sheshiledi - búl endi Dj Bayden biyligining erik-jigerine ghana baylanysty sharua.

Qytay úitqy bop qúrylghan, Resey, Orta jәne Ontýstik Aziyanyng basyn biriktire alghan ShYÚ-nyng kezekti sammiyti Ózbekstannyng Samarqan qalasynda ótpek. Búl joly, osyghan deyin baqylaushy retinde qatysyp kelgen Iran úiymnyng resmy mýshesi atanbaq. Búl Pekin ýshin óte manyzdy bolmaq. Irannyng AQSh-tan alystap, bir qadam jaqynday týsui – Pekin men Mәskeu ýshin ýlken jenis әri medet bolmaq. Búnday manyzdy sәtti Iran preziydenti, bolashaq Irannyng eng jogharghy biyleushisine jalghyz ýmitker, qazirgi preziydenti Ibrahim Raisiymen birge boludyng sayasy manyzy joghary bolatyny týsinikti.

Reseyding Ukrainge jasaghan basqynshylyghy – ony «aymaqtyq imperiya» retinde qúrdymgha ketirui mýmkin. Búl yqtimal geosayasy qúbylystar – osyghan deyin ózin Orta Aziya aimaghynyng sayasy jәne әskery ómirinen alys ústap, Kremliding yqpal etu aimaghynan alys, tek ekonomikalyq yqpaldy ghana mise tútyp kelgen Pekin biyligi ýshin jana strategiyalyq mýmkindik tuyp kele jatuy mýmkin. Óitkeni, soghystyng sony – Reseyding moraldyq hәm fizikalyq túrghydan jeniletini belgili boluda. Endigi uaqytta Reseyding OA-daghy sayasy jәne әskery quaty men bet-bedeli de búrynghyday bolmasy, yqpaly әlsireytini anyq. Qytaydyng ShYÚ-daghy týrli resurstary men «Beldeu, Jol» jobasynyng qarjylyq mýmkindigi arqyly OA-da yqpalyn keneyte týsuge talpynary sózsiz. Aymaq elderi de ilgeridegidey Kremliding qas-qabaghyna qaraylaudy birtindep azaytary da anyq. Býgingi әlemdik ekonomikalyq toqyrau túsynda qazaq, ózbek, tәjik jәne qyrghyz halyqtary ýshin Qytaygha jaqynday týsip, ishki ekonomikasyn jandandyrugha úmtyludan basqa shyghar jol da alys tartuda.

Qazaqstan da dәl qazir ekonomikalyq túiyqqa tirelip túr. Energiya eksportyn Resey arqyly tasymaldau jobasynyng bolashaghy búlynghyr. Preziydent Q.Toqaev sharq úryp múnay eksportyna balama joldy qansha izdegenimen, KTQ qúbyrynyng ornyn basar balamany dәl qazir, tipti tayauda taba qongy qiyn. Real shyndyqqa jýginer bolsaq, búl bostyqtyn, kemdikting ornyn tek Qytay naryghy ghana toltyrmaq. Búdan basqa esqatar ekinshi jol kórinbeude. Aqordanyng qazirgi jәi-kýiin alystan andap otyrghan Qytay biyligi «temirdi qyzuynda soghudy» kózdep, irili-úsaqty kelisimderge qol jetkizip, Q.Toqaevtyng jýgin «jenildetudi» kózdeydi. Búl rasynda daghdarghan qazaq biyligi ýshin ýlken kýsh pen quat bolmaq. Ekonomikalyq qiyndyqtardy enseruge, Kremli aldynda ózimizdi sәl de bolsa tik ústaugha mýmkindik tumaq. Shy Jiping bolsa bolashaq Kaspiy resurstaryn birden Qytaygha tasymaldau kólemin arttyrugha, әlemdik naryqtyng 59%-yn ústap túrghan uran siyaqty manyzdy strategiyalyq ónimderdegi ýles kólemin arttyrugha mýddeli boluy yqtimal. Energiya importynyng qauipsizdigi – Qytay ekonomikasynyng taghdyryn sheshetini siyaqty, energiya resurstarynyng eksport qauipsizdigi de Qazaqstan ekonomikasynyng kepili bolyp qalghany aqiqat. Búl jaghynda eki elde de ortaq mýdde bar.

Jinaqtap aitsaq, Shy Jiping joghardaghyday ýsh maqsatty betke alyp kele jatyr:

Irandy ShYÚ-na resmy mýshelikke qabyldau arqyly ishke tartyp, AQSh-qa qarsy Resey, Qytay, Iran tobyna qosu arqyly AQSh-qa aibat shegu;

OA-daghy ekonomikalyq yqpalyn keneytuge, Kaspiy resurstarynyng Qytaygha eksport kólemin arttyryp, uran siyaqty strategiyalyq ónimderge bolghan ýlesin molayta týsuge jol ashpaq;

Pekin qojayyny, bolashaqta OA-da Kremliding qabaghyna qaray bermeytinin bildiruge, aimaqqa sayasy jәne әskery yqpal jasaugha jol ashugha qadam jasaugha kele jatyr deuge bolady.

Ári ekonomikalyq, әleumettik qiyndyq qúrsauyndaghy Qazaqstangha «qolyn» sozyp, ózining zor el, «senimdi» kórshi ekenin esimizge salyp ketpek. Shy Jipiynning osy jolgha sapary Qazaqstangha, OA-gha nedәuir yqpal etetin týri bar. Shetel aqparat kózderining aituynsha, 15-16 qyryqýiekte Ózbekstannyng Samarqan qalasynda ótetin ShYÚ samiytine Q.Toqaev pen Shy Jipin bir úshaqqa otyryp baratyn kórinedi. Búl jaqyndyq biraz nәrseni menzese kerek.

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