Ukraina preziydenti Zelenskiyding Amerika Qúrama Shtattaryna sapary qarsanynda AQSh-tyng strategiyalyq jәne halyqaralyq zertteuler ortalyghynyng (CSIS) agha ghylymy qyzmetkeri Bendjamin Yensen «Tarihtaghy ýlken mәmileler: Tramptyng Ukrainany bәske tigiui» (Grand Bargains in History: Trump’s Ukraine Gambit) atty maqalasyn jariyalap, jerge aiyrbastap alghan beybitshilikting uaqytsha tynyshtyq әkeletinin, úzaq mәrzimdi beybit ómirge negiz bola almaytynyn tarihy faktilermen dәleldeuge tyrysty.

Bendjamin Yensen Tramp komandasy qazir Resey men Ukraina mәselesine qatysty batyl jәne qauipti baghytty ústanyp otyr dep sanaydy. Onyng oiynsha Tramptyng Putinmen jeke әngimesi jәne Er-Riyadtaghy eki taraptyng kelissózi Ukrainadaghy soghysty toqtatu maqsatynda ghana emes. Ózara bitimning ózegi – shyt jana ýlken mәmile jasau, búl kelisim geosayasy yqpal etu aimaghy sonday-aq tabighy resurstardy bóliske saludan bastap 21-shi ghasyrdaghy qaru-jaraqty baqylaugha deyingi aimaq aralyq mәselelerge qatysty, onyng ishinde yadrolyq mәseleler ghana emes, sonymen qatar gharyshty iygeru men pen internet kenistigindegi bәsekelestik te qamtylghan.

Basqasha aitqanda, preziydent Tramptyng syrtqy sayasat komandasy Ukrainagha qatysty kelissózderdi halyqaralyq jýieni qayta qúru maaqsatyna paydalanyp otyr. Kremlidi ymyragha kóndiru arqyly Resey, Qytay, Iran jәne Soltýstik Koreyadan qúralghan avtoritar odaqty әlsiretip, sonymen birge AQSh-tyng ekonomikalyq mýddelerin algha ilgerletudi kózdeydi.

Degenmen, ýlken tәuekelder ýlken bodau berudi talap etedi, biz tarihta bolghan osyghan úqsas ýlken kelissózderding saldaryn zerttegennen keyin osynday qorytyndygha kelip túrmyz. Soghysty toqtatugha jasalghan diplomatiyalyq qadamdargha quanudan góri, asa saqtyqpen qaraghan jón.

Barlyq jaghdaylarda, soghys ayaqtalyp, teketiresting aldy alghanymen, kólenkedegi biylik ýshin kýres bayaghysynsha saqtalady. Iri derjavalardyng ýlken mýddeleri bar jәne olar qaqtyghys kezinde kýirey jenilse de, óz mýddelerin onaylyqpen qúrban ete qoymaydy. Búl Reseymen kez kelgen iri mәmilening qysqa merzimdi paydasy bolghanymen, qauipting úzaq merzimge jalghasatynyn bildiredi. Biz ýlken mәmilelerding neshe úrpaqqa әser etetinin boljay almaghanymyzben – (eger Kissindjer 1971 jyly Qytay Kommunistik partiyasynyng 2025 jyly qanday bolatynyn bilse, Qytaygha barmas edi) – qazirgi kelisimdi - beretin mýmkindigi men biylik balanysyna qarap shamalay alamyz.

1895 jylghy Qytay-Japon soghysy ayaqtalghanda teritoriya bólisi «Shimonoseky kelisimine» engizildi. Búl óz kezeginde Aziyadaghy kelesi soghystar men 20 ghasyrda Japoniyanyng imperalistik niyetining qabynuyna negiz qalady.

Ukrainanyng territoriyadan bas tartuyn talap etu – Mәskeuding tәbetin ashady, Baltyq jәne Kavkaz aimaqtaryndaghy basqa aumaqtyq daulardy ushyqtyrady. Odan tys, Resey ekonomikasy qazir soghys ekonomikasyna beyimdelip aldy, yaghny soghystyng ayaqtaluy soghys óndirisining toqtaghanyn bildirmeydi. Mәskeu Ukrainagha Europanyng bitimgerlik kýshterin ornalastyrugha kelisse de, onyng Europagha sybaylastary arqyly jasaytyn gibridti shabuyldary, AQSh mýddesine qarsy jahandyq kiyber operasiyalary tolastamaydy. Mәmile bayandy boluy ýshin Tramp sózsiz Putinnen soghys toqtaghanyn paydalanyp, qayta qarulanbau turaly uәdesin alu kerek. Eng qauipti boljam: Putin Tramptyng preziydenttik merzimi ayaqtalghannan keyin jana soghys bastauy, Qytaydyng Tayvanigha basyp kiruimen túspa-tús kelui mýmkin.

Chemberlen Munhende bolghanda, Aziyany da nazanda ústady. Japoniya 1934 jyly «Vashington teniz kelisiminen» – 20 ghasyrdaghy tenizdegi qaru-jaraqty baqylau kelisiminen shyghatyny turaly mәlimdeme jasady. Búl Britan imperiyasy Úly Depressiya kezinde eki aimaqtyq derjavamen betpe-bet keldi degen sóz. Chemberlen Munhende ózi deldal bolghan jaysyz kelisim Úlybritaniyagha jahandyq qaqtyghysqa dayyndalugha uaqyt beredi dep bәs tikti.

Ukraina soghysyn toqtatu mәmilesine osy túrghydan qarasaq, qaryz arqyly jýgendeudi kózdeytin jahandyq derjavalar tap bolghan túraqty qiyndyqtardy kóre alamyz. 1938 jylghy Britan imperiyasy bolsyn, 2025 jylghy Amerika Qúrama Shtattary bolsyn, borysh arqyly baghynyshtylyqqa qol jetkize almaydy. Strategiyalyq basymdyqtardy aiqyndau qiyn tandau jasaudy talap etedi, al uaqyt ayasynan qaraghanda tipti túraqsyz bolady.

Tramp komandasy jana ýlken strategiyany qolgha alghanymen, syrtqy sayasatty tarihtaghy halyqaralyq auqymdy kelissózderding saldarymen salystyryp, týzetpese bәsting qaupi artady, Amerika Qúrama Shtattarynyng qauipsizdigimen oinaghandaryn kesh sezinedi.

Qytaygha barghan Kissindjer de,  Munhenge barghan Chemberlen de ózining strategiyasyna shekten tys sengendikten, «qyrghiy-qabaq soghys» – qazirgi qandy soghysqa úlasty.

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