Kanadalyq Visual Capitalist platformasy men britandyq CEBR (Ekonomikalyq jәne iskerlik zertteuler ortalyghy) sarapshylarynyng 2040 jylgha arnalghan boljamy aldaghy 14 jylda әlemdik ekonomikalyq kýshter tepe-tendigining qalay ózgeretinin aiqyn kórsetedi.

Zertteu nәtiyjeleri boyynsha, 2040 jylgha qaray jahandyq nominaldy JIÓ kólemi 83%-gha ósip, 124 trln dollardan 227 trln dollargha jetpek. Búl ósimning negizgi qozghaushy kýshteri men Qazaqstannyng jahandyq reytingtegi ornyna tómendegidey saraptama jasaugha bolady.

Jahandyq kóshbasshylar: Bipolyarly ýstemdik jәne Aziyanyng órleui

2040 jylgha qaray әlemdik ekonomika eki alyp memleketting — AQSh pen Qytaydyng ainalasynda shoghyrlanady. Olardyng jiyntyq JIÓ-si býkil әlemdik ekonomikanyng shamamen jartysyn (shamamen 100,8 trln dollar) qúraydy:

AQSh pen Qytay teketiresi: AQSh 52,88 trln dollar kórsetkishimen birinshi oryndy saqtap qalghanymen, Qytay (47,87 trln dollar) alshaqtyqty 5 trln dollargha deyin qysqartady. Búl AQSh-tyng ekonomikalyq gegemoniyasynyng búrynghyday absolutti bolmaytynyn kórsetedi.

Aziya elderining serpini: Ýndistan 14,09 trln dollarmen әlemning ýshinshi ekonomikasyna ainalyp, Germaniya (7,78 trln) men Japoniyany (5,92 trln) aitarlyqtay artta qaldyrady. Sonymen qatar, Indoneziyanyng (4,18 trln dollar) alghashqy ondyqqa enui ekonomikalyq ortalyqtyng Europadan Aziya-Tynyq múhity aimaghyna týbegeyli yghysqanyn dәleldeydi.

Qazaqstannyng pozisiyasy: Top-50-de beku jәne aimaqtyq kóshbasshylyq

Boljam boyynsha Qazaqstannyng nominaldy JIÓ-si 62,5%-gha ósip, 650 mlrd dollargha jetedi. Búl kórsetkish elimizge jahandyq reytingte 46-oryndy iyelenip, әlemning eng iri 50 ekonomikasynyng qatarynda nyq ornyghugha mýmkindik beredi.

2040 jylghy boljam: Qazaqstannyng әlemdik ekonomikadaghy orny men kórshiles eldermen salystyrmasy

Analitikalyq boljamdargha sәikes, 2040 jyly Qazaqstannyng nominaldy JIÓ kólemi 650 milliard dollargha jetip, elimiz әlemdik reytingte 46-oryngha túraqtaydy jәne Ortalyq Aziya aimaghynda kóshbasshylyghyn saqtap qalady.

TMD kenistigi men basqa da postkenestik eldermen salystyrghanda búl kórsetkish biraz artyq. Mәselen, aimaqtaghy negizgi bәsekeles Resey 3,247 trln dollar kórsetkishimen 16-oryngha ie bolyp, TMD boyynsha kósh bastasa, Qazaqstan odan keyingi eng iri ekonomika retinde ornyghady. Al kórshiles Ózbekstannyng 2040 jylghy JIÓ kólemi 342 milliard dollardy qúraydy dep boljanyp otyr, búl Qazaqstan ekonomikasynan shamamen 1,9 ese kishi ekenin bildiredi. Sonday-aq Ázerbayjan (152 mlrd dollar) men Belarusi (113 mlrd dollar) elderining ekonomikasy Qazaqstannan sәikesinshe 4,2 jәne 5,7 ese tómen dengeyde qalady.

Qazaqstannyng búl ekonomikalyq ósimi tipti birqatar damyghan Europa elderin de artta qaldyrugha mýmkindik beredi. Mysaly, 2040 jyly Chehiyanyng JIÓ kólemi 630 milliard dollar bolady dep kýtilude — búl rette Qazaqstan búl memleketti shamamen 20 milliard dollargha basyp ozady. Sonymen qatar, bizding elding kórsetkishi Portugaliya (588 mlrd dollar), Finlyandiya (516 mlrd dollar) jәne Vengriya (413 mlrd dollar, yaghny Qazaqstannan 1,5 ese kishi) siyaqty europalyq memleketterding boljamdy JIÓ kóleminen asyp týsedi.

TMD-daghy basymdyq: Reseydi eseptemegende, Qazaqstan postkenestik kenistiktegi sózsiz ekonomikalyq kóshbasshy mәrtebesin saqtaydy. Tipti Ortalyq Aziyadaghy eng jaqyn kórshisi Ózbekstannyng (342 mlrd dollar) jәne Ázerbayjan, Belarusi, Armeniya, Qyrghyzstan, Tәjikstan elderining jiyntyq JIÓ-sin (shamamen 769 mlrd dollar) eseptegende, Qazaqstannyng ekonomikalyq salmaghy aimaqta sheshushi ról atqara beredi.

Europalyq eldermen tenesu: Nominaldy kólem boyynsha Qazaqstannyng Chehiya, Portugaliya, Finlyandiya jәne Baltyq jaghalauy elderin basyp ozuy — ishki naryq kólemi men resurstyq-óndiristik әleuetting artuymen baylanysty. Alayda búl jerde nominaldy JIÓ men jan basyna shaqqandaghy JIÓ arasyndaghy aiyrmashylyqty eskeru manyzdy: halyq sanynyng ósuine baylanysty jalpy ekonomika kólemi úlghayghanymen, ómir sýru dengeyi men enbek ónimdiligi boyynsha damyghan europalyq elderge jetu ýshin qúrylymdyq reformalar qajet.

Jahandyq tensizdik jәne tәuekelder

Reytingting sonynda ornalasqan Tuvalu (100 mln dollar) nemese Nauru (300 mln dollar) siyaqty shaghyn aral memleketteri men alpauyt ekonomikalar arasyndaghy alshaqtyq әlemdik baylyqtyng birkelki bólinbeytinin kórsetedi.

Qazaqstan ýshin 650 mlrd dollarlyq mejege jetu — tek shiykizat baghasyna ghana emes, ekonomikany әrtaraptandyru, kólik-logistikalyq hab retindegi әleuetti iske asyru jәne investisiya tartu qarqynyna tikeley tәueldi. Eger elimiz osy boljamdy qarqyndy saqtay alsa, 2040 jylgha qaray Euraziya qúrlyghyndaghy orta dengeyli yqpaldy ekonomikalyq ortalyqqa ainalady.

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