Qazaqstan Últtyq banki (QÚB) tóraghasynyng orynbasary Aqyljan Baymaghambetovting mәlimdemesi el ekonomikasyndaghy bagha túraqtylyghy men aqsha-nesie sayasatynyng aldaghy baghytyn aiqyndap berdi.

Retteushi organnyng boljamy boyynsha, 2026 jyldyng sonyna deyin inflyasiya bir tanbaly dengeyde (10%-dan tómen) saqtalyp, 2027 jyly 6,5–8,5% dәlizine deyin bayaulaydy dep kýtilinip otyr.

Inflyasiyanyng bayaulauy men deflyasiyanyng arajigi

Qoghamda «inflyasiya tómendese, dýkendegi baghalar arzandaydy» degen jansaq týsinik jii kezdesedi. Alayda ekonomikalyq zandylyq túrghysynan búl eki týrli qúbylys bolyp tabylady. Atap aitar bolsaq:

Dezinflyasiya (inflyasiyanyng bayaulauy): Qazirgi Qazaqstan ekonomikasynda kýtilip otyrghan ýrdis. Búl baghanyng ósui toqtaydy degen sóz emes, tek onyng qymbattau qarqyny bәsendeydi degendi bildiredi. Yaghni, tauarlar men qyzmetter búrynghyday jyldam qymbattamaydy, al halyqtyng naqty tabysy men zeynetaqy, jalaqy ósimi inflyasiyany basyp oza bastaydy.

Deflyasiya (jalpy bagha dengeyining tómendeui): Últtyq bank ókili atap ótkendey, búl — ekonomika ýshin asa qauipti «depressivti» qúbylys bolyp tabylady. Eger jappay bagha tómendey bastasa, tútynushylar «erteng odan da arzandaydy» degen ýmitpen iri satyp alulardy keyinge shegeredi. Súranystyng qúldyrauy kәsiporyndardyng tabysyn azaytyp, óndiristing qysqaruyna, jalaqynyng tómendeuine jәne jappay júmyssyzdyqqa bastap alyp keledi. Sondyqtan kez kelgen ortalyq bankting basty maqsaty — baghany arzandatu emes, ony qalypty әri boljamdy dengeyde (targettelgen dәlizde) ústap túru.

Sonymen qatar, tengening nyghangy importtyq tauarlardyng qymbattauyn tejep, inflyasiyalyq qysymdy azaytugha tikeley septigin tiygizude.

Osy orayda, Ortalyq Aziya valutalarynyng inflyasiyagha yqpalyga zer sala keteyik. Ortalyq Aziya elderining ekonomikalary syrtqy saudagha, әsirese importqa jәne enbek migranttarynyng aqsha audarymdaryna tәueldi bolghandyqtan, últtyq valuta baghamy inflyasiyany anyqtaytyn basty faktorlardyng biri bolyp tabylady.

Qazaqstan (Tenge — KZT) Valuta baghamynyng rejiymi Erkin ózgermeli bagham (inflyasiyalyq targetteu). Inflyasiyagha әser etu mehanizmi men ereksheligi: Tenge baghamy múnay baghasyna, bazalyq mólsherlemege jәne Últtyq qordan bólinetin transfertterge tikeley tәueldi. Valutanyng nyghangy tútynu sebetindegi importtyq azyq-týlik pen tehnika baghasyn tejep, inflyasiyany 10%-dan tómen ústaugha mýmkindik beredi.

Ózbekstan (Sum — UZS) Valuta baghamynyng rejiymi Basqarylatyn ózgermeli bagham. Inflyasiyagha әser etu mehanizmi men ereksheligi: Songhy jyldary naryqtyq reformalar men energiya tarifterining liyberalizasiyasy inflyasiyagha qysym jasauda. Sumnyng birtindep әlsireui (devalivasiyalyq ýrdis) ishki naryqtaghy importtyq shiykizat pen tauarlardy qymbattatady. Degenmen, altyn eksporty men joghary payyzdyq mólsherleme sumdy kýrt qúldyraudan saqtap, inflyasiyany birtindep tejeuge kómektesude.

Qyrghyzstan (Som — KGS) Valuta baghamynyng rejiymi Erkin ózgermeli bagham (Ortalyq bankting intervensiyalarymen). Inflyasiyagha әser etu mehanizmi men ereksheligi: Qyrghyz ekonomikasy importqa óte joghary dengeyde tәueldi (tútynu tauarlarynyng basym bóligi shetelden keledi). Somnyng túraqtylyghy enbek migranttarynyng aqsha audarymdary men reeksport kólemine baylanysty. Som baghamy sәl әlsirese, ishki naryqtaghy baghalar birden kóteriledi, al songhy kezendegi somnyng salystyrmaly túraqtylyghy inflyasiyany bir tanbaly dengeyde ústap túrudyng negizgi kepiline ainaldy.

Týrikmenstan (Manat — TMT) Valuta baghamynyng rejiymi Qatang tirkelgen resmy bagham (jәne beyresmy «qara naryq» baghamy). Inflyasiyagha әser etu mehanizmi men ereksheligi: Týrikmen manatynyng resmy baghamy jyldar boyy ózgerissiz ústalyp túrghanymen, ishki naryqtaghy baghalar beyresmy naryqtaghy dollar baghamyna qaray qalyptasady. Resmy statistika inflyasiyany tómen kórsetkenimen, naqty ekonomikada valutalyq shekteuler men importtyq tauarlar tapshylyghy baghanyng qúbylmalylyghyn saqtap otyr.

Ortalyq Aziyadaghy makroekonomikalyq ahualdy salystyra kele, Qazaqstan men Qyrghyzstan inflyasiyany auyzdyqtauda naryqtyq qúraldar men valuta baghamynyng iykemdiligine sýiense, Ózbekstan qúrylymdyq reformalar men baghany yryqtandyru kezeninen ótude, al Týrikmenstan әkimshilik-retteushilik tetikterge basymdyq beredi. Qazaqstan ýshin aldaghy 2027 jylghy basty mindet — tengening túraqtylyghyn saqtay otyryp, ekonomikany deflyasiyalyq toqyraugha úryndyrmay, 6,5–8,5% aralyghyndaghy qalypty inflyasiyalyq dәlizge shygharu bolyp tabylady. Tenge baghamy: «Audy jyrtpay, balyqty da óltirmey» qara halyqtyng kәdesine jaray bersin dep tileyik!

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