Qyrym – orystyng da, ukrainning de jeri emes, týrki halyqtarynyng ishindegi qazaqqa jaqyn Qyrym tatarlarynyng jeri. Osman imperiyasynyng әlsirep, Orys patshalyghynyng dәuirleu shaghynda búl jerdi orystar basyp alghan. Kenes kezinde Qyrym tatarlary asqan qatygezdikpen óz jerinen alastalyp, sayda sany, qúmda izi qalmay tarap ketti. 1944 jyly mamyrda KSRO Memlekettik Qorghanys komiyteti Qyrym týbegining barlyq jergilikti túrghyndaryn basqa jaqqa kóshiru turaly qauly shygharghan bolatyn. Qyrym tatarlarynyng kópshiligi Ózbekstangha, bir bóligi Qazaqstangha qonystandyrylghan bolatyn.

Qyrym Reseyding qaramaghynda bolghan kezderde josparly jýrgizilgen «vodvoreniye» sayasatynyng saldarynan tolyq orystandyryldy. Aqyry orystardyng barlyq túrghyndar arasyndaghy ýlesi ⅔ bólikke juyqtady. Osydan orys imperiyasy ústanatyn eki tútqa payda boldy: birinshisi – Qyrym orys memleketining qaramaghynda bolghan; ekinshisi – Qyrym halqynyng basym kópshiligin orystar qúraydy.

Vladimir Putin Batystyng Qyrym ýshin soghysqa barmaytynyn, jalpy, qanday janjal bolsa da, kýsh kórsetuden bas tartatynyn jaqsy biledi. Orystyng «kýshi» Batystyng osy «әlsizdigin» biluinde jәne jymysqy sayasatpen әreket etuinde. Sonyng saldarynan, «úyatty syghyrdy úyatsyz sodyr jenip», Resey Qyrymdy qaytaryp alu ýshin jantalasty.

Resey býkil aqparat qúraldaryn Kiyevte biylikke kelgenderding basynan qara qoymaljyndy bóshkelep qúngha, Reseyge qosyludy jaqtaytyndardy meylinshe sýikimdi kórsetuge baghyttady. Búl baghytta jalghan aighaqtardy qisyndyryp soghudyng tendesi joq ýlgisin kórsetti. Onyng ýstine Qyrymnyng ishki isterine meylinshe aralasyp, jergilikti separatisterding qoltyghyna su býrke otyryp, olardyng jalaqysyn dereu birneshe ese arttyrugha uәde berip, iritki saludyng sheberligin kәsipqoy dengeyde kórsetti. Pogonsyz әskerdi qaptatyp jiberip, «bilmeymiz, biz Qyrymgha әsker jibergen joqpyz» dep, dýnie jýzi kórip, bilip otyrghan betbaqtyqty moyyndamay túryp aludan úyalmady.

Endi Batys sanksiya jariyalap jatyr. Týrli sayasi-ekonomikalyq, qúqyqtyq sharalargha barady. Áriyne, ol Reseyge jenil tiymeydi. Orystar onyng zardabyn tartady. Biraq «jylandy qyryq kesseng de, kesirtkelik jany bar» demekshi, ózin-ózi qamtamasyz ete alu kórsetkishi jaghynan joghary, alyp Resey ýshin ol sýrindirer shara bola almaydy.

Alayda órkeniyetti eldermen salauatty sayasat jýrgize bilmeytin Reseydi qatty sýrindiretin ózge faktorlardyng keri yqpaly arta týsedi. Qazir orys revanshisterining aldynda jalghan bedeli kóterilip qalghan Resey preziydentining tanauy deldiyip túr. Memlekettik duma tolyq qúramymen preziydentting qaltasyndaghy parlamentke ainalyp ketkeni belgili boldy. Búl jaghdaylar búdan bylayghy kezende orys totalitarizmining kýshengine tura yqpal etedi. Tiyisinshe, Resey damyghan demokratiyalyq qoghamdardan alystay týsedi. Kelesi saylauda V.Putinning jeke jospary boyynsha, preziydent kreslosyn ózining taghy da iyemdenuine, tipti bolmaghanda, biylikke onyng taghayyndaghan adamynyng (Medvedev siyaqty) – quyrshaq preziydentting keluin qamtamasyz etui mýmkin.

Reseydi myng jyl iyektep kele jatqan eki jalmauyz bar. Birinshisi – orys totalitarizmi. N.Berdyaev aitpaqshy, «totalitarlyq ruhta tәrbiyelengen orys halqy ýnemi biylikke totalitarlyq kýshterding keluine jaghday jasap otyrady». Ary qaray bәri týsinikti: ashyqtyq, demokratiyalylyq bolmaghan jerde korrupsiya tamyr jayady. Eldi tyghyryqqa aparyp tireytin birinshi faktor osy.

 Ekinshi faktor – orys slavyanofiliderining Batyspen óshigudi últtyq iydeya retinde tandap aluy. Óshigu bar jerde sheptesu bar. Kýlli aldynghy qatarly qoghamdarmen óshigumen basy qatqan orys biyligindegilerding qarulanudan basqany oilaugha múrshasy joq. Dýnie jýzindegi eng kóp qaru shygharatyn, meylinshe militarlanghan el – osy Resey.

Qanshalyqty bay el bolsa da, atalghan eki faktor el budjeti qapshyghynan eki tesik shygharyp, әleumettik-demografiyalyq mәselelerdi sheshuge, búqaranyng densaulyghyn jaqsartugha, bilimi men mәdeniyetin kóteruge mýmkindik bermeydi. Sonyng saldarynan Resey damushy elderding qatarynan eshqashan shygha almaydy. Kezinde alyp Kenes Odaghyn tyghyryqqa aparyp tiregen de osy faktorlar bolatyn.

Qazir Resey bilim beru salasy meylinshe formalylanghan, halqynyng mәdeniyeti tómen, demografiyalyq túldyrlyq mendegen elge ainalyp otyr. Songhy onjyldyqtarda Sibir men Qiyr Shyghysta ondaghan myng derevnyalar, jýzdegen qalalar joyylyp ketken. Qazirding ózinde orystar Qiyr Shyghys pen Sibirdi ústap túra alamyz ba, almaymyz ba degen súraqpen ómir sýrude. Batystan jaulap alghan bir Qyrymnyng ornyna Shyghysta myng Qyrymnan aiyrylu qaupimen kýn keship jatyr.

Ras, songhy jyldary orystar Qiyr Shyghys pen Sibirding tirshiligin jandandyrugha qatty kónil bólude. Putin ózi ýlgi kórsetip, jemqorlyqpen bayyghandardyng aqsha-qarajattaryn Qiyr Shyghys pen Sibir ekonomikasyna saldyrugha mәjbýrlemek. Búdan qanday nәtiyje shyghatyny turaly sóz qozghaugha әli erte. Búl tústa bir nәrseni este saqtau kerek: qanshalyqty júlymyr bolsa da, Putinning Qazaqstan biyliginde otyrghan kollaborasionisterden bir artyqshylyghy bar. Ol – memleketshil. Ol avtoritarlyq basqaru әdisimen, totalitarlyq oilauymen, imperiyashyl pighylymen, «týk kórmegen» tobyrdan shyqqandyghyna tәn qiytúrqy úsaqshyldyghymen, shpiongha tәn jymysqylyghymen orystyn, Reseyding qamyn oilaydy. Batystan tәuelsiz bolu ýshin baryn salyp jatyr.

Soghan qaramastan, Qazaqstannyng soltýstigi orystyng kókeyin tesuin qoyghan joq. Orys biyligining Baltyq jaghalauyndaghy, Zakavkaziedegi, Moldovadaghy, endi, mine, Ukrainadaghy sayasatynyng qoltanbasy qazaqqa tanys. Múny qazaqtardyng ýlken qauip retinde qabyldaytyn jóni bar. Osy jaghdaylar songhy túrghyndar sanaghynyng qorytyndylary tóniregindegi oqighalardy eriksiz eske týsiredi.

2009 jylghy sanaqtyng qorytyndylary boyynsha, respublika túrghyndarynyng ishindegi qazaqtardyng ýlesi aldymen 67%, artynan 65%, aqyry odan da tómendetilip, 63% boldy degen mólsher túraqtanghan bolatyn. Jergilikti últ ókilderining ýlesin kemitu әreketteri nege jasaldy? Respublikadaghy qazaqtardyng ýlesining jyl sayyn artyp, orys jәne ózge júrt ókilderining ýlesining azayyp ketui kimning mazasyn alyp otyr? Osy súraqtyng jauabyn tabu ýshin mandaydyng alty qarys boluy mindetti emes. Qarapayym logikalyq qorytyndy shyghara alatyn adamgha bәri týsinikti bolsa kerek.

Qazaqstanda qalyptasyp otyrghan demografiyalyq ýderis Resey biyligining mazasyn aluda. Qazaqstannyng soltýstik oblystaryna әsker kirgizip, «orystildilerdi qorghap jatyrmyz-mys» degen basqynshylyghyn aqtau ýshin, Resey biyligine atalghan ónirlerde ghana emes, Qazaqstanda tútastay orystildilerding ýlesining qomaqty bolghany kerek. Mineki, shetelden tartylghan qazaq kóshin toqtatu jónindegi búiryqtyng da qay jaqtan tartylghan symmen kelip týskeni osy qisyndarmen anyqtalady.

Dýniyedegi eng kópsandy halqy bar, bizde alatyn óshi bar elmen qonsy qonyp otyryp, qyzdaryn ol elding shybyqtary syzdaghan boydaqtarynyng kóz salym obektisine ainaldyryp qoyyp, daliyp jatqan dalany qorghaytyn әskerge zәru bolar shaqqa tayap túrghanda, shetten kelmek oiy bar qandasty jolatpaumen ainalysuda qanday qisyn bar? Qarapayym qasyq jasay almay otyryp, ýdemeli innovasiyaly-industriyaly damu jolymen zymyrap bara jatyrmyz degen kópirmege kim senedi? Jantalasyp, halyq sanyn kóbeytuge tyrysudyng ornyna, búqarany әleumettik aurulargha mendetip, jastardyng basym kópshiligin әsker qatarynda qyzmet etuge jaramaytyn jarymjan kýige týsirip, suisidti, bala ólimin toqtata almay, әielderding zeynetke shyghar jasyn úzartyp, azabyn arttyryp qoyyp, «bir jerlerin qasyp otyrghan» sheneuniksymaqtargha dikendegen spektakli oinaytyn biylikting sanasyn mendegen ne ekenin angharar mezgil jetti?

2010 jyldyng mәlimetteri boyynsha, jalpy túrghyndardyng ishindegi orystardyng ýlesi Shyghys Qazaqstan oblysynda – 40,5%, Qostanay oblysynda – 40,6%, Pavlodar oblysynda – 38,25%, Soltýstik Qazaqstan oblysynda – 48,25% boldy. Eger qazaq kóshin toqtatpaghanda, shetelden tarihy otanyna kóship kelip jatqandardy osy oblystargha qonystandyryp, demografiyalyq balansty qanaghattanarlyq kýige qaray iykemdep jiberuge bolar edi.

Endi, mine, bayaghyday, «qazaq el bola ala ma, joq pa?» degen Shekspir diylemmasyna taghy tirelip otyrmyz. Halyqta ruh joq, biylikke senim joq. Qalyptasqan jaghdaylar sanasynda sanlauy bar azamatty kýndiz kýlkiden, týnde úiqydan aiyryp otyr.

Qarapayym qisyn Resey-Qazaqstan qatynastarynyng tómendegidey órbu núsqalaryn kóz aldygha әkeledi:

1-ssenariy: Qyrymdy qosyp alghanyna, oghan Batystyng is jýzinde qarym qaytara almaghanyna shabyttanghan Resey preziydentining tәbeti ashyla týsedi. Ol Qazaqstannyng soltýstik oblystaryn jaulap aludyng sәti keldi dep esepteydi, endi basqynshylyq baghytyn ontýstikke búrady.

Sonymen soltýstik oblystarda túratyn orys diasporasy arasynan shu shyghady. Olar alghashynda әleumettik tendikting ornauyn, enbekaqynyng kóteriluin, biylik basynda otyrghandar arasynda orystardyng ýlesining ј-den kem bolmauyn, orystar tyghyz qonystanghan oblystargha avtonomiya beriluin talap etedi. Kazak әskerleri at oinatady. Reseyden kelgen pogonsyz әsker qaptaydy. Soltýstikte olardy qoldap shyghatyn sayasiy-әskery úiymdar bar. Eng bastysy, «teristik angy» sharbaqty jyrtqanda, Qazaqstannyng marionet biyligining ózi oghan qol úshyn beruge dayyn otyr.

V.Putinning әkimshiligi «Qazaqstannyng ishki isterine aralaspaghanyn», «onda bolyp jatqan oqighalargha Reseyding qatysy joq ekenin», «eshqanday әsker kirgizbegenin», «Qazaq biyligine konstitusiyalyq zandylyqqa sýienip tәrtip ornatuy kerek ekenin»... dýnie jýzine jariyalaydy. Is jýzinde arandatudyng nebir las tehnologiyalaryn qoldana otyryp, belsendi әreketke kóshedi: aziyalyq últ ókilderi arasynan lang salushy top dayyndap, las әreketter úiymdastyrady. Olar orystardyng ýiin órtep, mashinalaryn býldirip ketedi. Elding tútastyghyn jaqtap jýrgen europalyq últ ókilderin arandatady. Osydan keyin Putin «Qazaqstandaghy orystildi azamattardy qorghau» missiyasyn jariyalaydy da, jartylay ashyq әreketterge kirisedi. Osy kezde qazaq biyligi «túraqtylyq» tuyn kóterip, separatisterge qarsy shyghyp jýrgenderding úiymdastyrushylary men belsendilerin tútqyndap, keyingilerge sabaq boluy ýshin «azdap qantógis» sharasyn jasaydy. Aqyry soltýstik oblystarda «referendum» jariyalanady. Onda basym kópshilik keng auqymdy avtonomiyany jaqtap shyghady. Osylay, keleshekte ol oblystardyng «beybit jolmen», «kópshilikting qalauy boyynsha ótkizilgen plebissitting qorytyndylaryna sýienip», Reseyge qosylu perspektivasy jasalady.

2-ssenariy: Ózin dýniyejýzilik qauymdastyqqa qarsy qoyyp, sayaq ketkenin, halyqaralyq arenada elding bedelin meylinshe týsirgenin, Qyrymdy qosyp alu aktisining ekonomikalyq, әleumettik-mәdeny keseldi saldarlaryn sezingen V.Putin kelesi bir sәti kelgenge deyin Soltýstik Qazaqstan mәselesin keyinge ysyra túrady.

3-ssenariy: Qazaqstan mәselesin V.Putin beybit jolmen, sonyng ózinde qazaq marionetkasynyng óz qolymen ot kósetip otyryp, bappen sheshedi. Ol ýshin Euraziyalyq odaq qúru júmysyn jandandyrady. Ekonomikalyq dep atalatyn odaq qúryla salysymen, onyng sayasy betperdesi aiqyn kórine bastaydy. Aldymen rubli alaby qúrylady. Sonan keyin Kremli núsqaushylary dayyndaghan ssenariy boyynsha Reseyding mýddesin kózdep shyghyp otyratyn adamdardy Aqordagha kóbirek ornalastyru sharalary iske asyrylady (búghan deyin de Qazaqstan sayasy kenistiginde jýzege asyrylyp kelgen polittehnologiyalardyng bәri Resey núsqaushylarynyng qolynan shyqqan bolatyn). Osylay, Qazaq biyligining sheshushi buyndaryna Reseyding mýddesinen shyghyp otyratyndar ornalasyp bolghan son, sayasi-ekonomikalyq qana emes, mәdeniy-әleumettik sharalar da tek Kremliding núsqauymen jýzege asyrylatyn bolady.

Qazirgi jaghdayda Putin ýshin Qazaqstan mәselesin ýshinshi ssenariy boyynsha sheshu tiyimdi. Eger qazaqtar EAO-nyng qúryluyna baylanysty egemendigine tóngen qauipke qarsy esh shara qoldanbay, ýiezdegen qoydyng mentaliytetin kórsetse, onda atalghan baghyt bayybymen jýzege asyrylady. Eger qazaq EAO-nyng qúryluyna úiymdasqan qarsylyqqa kóshse, onda Putin birinshi ssenariy boyynsha әreket etuge mәjbýr bolady.

Birinshi ssenariy boyynsha qúrylghan әreketke Putin bara ala ma, әlde, bara almay ma? Ol jaghy taghy Batys jariyalaghan sanksiyalardyng pәrmenine jәne olardyng yqpalymen tuyndaytyn Putinning kónil-kýiindegi ózgeristerge baylanysty.

Aghylshyn filosofy T. Gobbs «әdette qoghamgha qauip shetten kelmeydi, kópshilik jaghdayda pighyly teris biylikting ózinen keledi» degen edi. Qúldyqty, tәueldilikke týsudi halyq ózi qalap alady degen maghynadaghy pikirlerdi Batys ekzistensialisteri de talay aitqan. Áleumettik minez, búqaranyng erkindikke belsendi úmtyluy nemese úmtylmauy, onyng sebepteri mәselelerin E.Fromm ashyp berdi. Zamanauy amerikalyq filosof qazirgi Shyghys elderinde asa keng taralyp otyrghan әleumettik-psihologiyalyq qúbylystardyng biri – búqaranyng basyn kóteruge múrshasyn keltirmey, ony ýkimetting túqyrta janship otyruy, búqaranyng óz ókimetine qarsy shygha almauynyn, ezgige tóze beruinin, tabighy erkindigin paydalana almauynyng sebepterin «Begstvo ot svobody» (enbekting ataluyna nazar salynyz!), t.b. enbekterinde kórsetip bergen bolatyn.

Qazirgi qazaqtyng qylyp jýrgen qylyghy men ezulerinen silekeyin aghyza kópirip jýrgenderi osy aitylghandardyng is jýzindegi kórinisi bolarlyqtay. Kezinde últ retinde joyylyp, «kenes halqyna» sinip ketudi masayray qoldaghan qazaq «tóbesi kókke jetpey túr az-aq» dep әn shyrqaghan edi. Endi, mine, tәuelsizdigin tәrik etip, Reseyge qosa salu әreketin ashyq jýrgizip otyrghan biylikti ýndemey qoldap otyr.

Týptep kelgende, Qazaq biyliginde otyrghandar – Putinning emes, óz qoldarymen jasaghan qylmystarynyng tútqyny. Putinning myqtylyghy onyng qolynda qazaq biyliginde otyrghandardyng jәne olardyng ainalasynda jýrgenderding jәne olardyng otbasy mýshelerining әrqaysysyna qatysty kompromattyng boluynda. Eger kimde-kim minez tanytpaq bolsa, sonyng ýstinen Reseyding Qazaqstanda taralatyn 500 BAQ-y kompromatty tonnalap tóge salghanda, onyng sol jerde túnshyghyp ólgennen basqa sharasy qalmaydy. Olardyng әrqaysysy Resey arnalarynan kórsetilgen «Krestnyy Batikany» esine týsirgende, túrghan jerin laysangha ainaldyrady.

***

Qazaqtyng arbasy da synbay, aty da aman qaluynyng bir ghana joly bar. Ol ýshin biylik birden parlamenttik-preziydenttik damu jolyna kóshkenin jariyalauy kerek. Dýniyejýzilik qauymdastyqtar ókilderin shaqyra otyryp, әdil saylau ótkizip, preziydenttikke jәne parlamentke qoly taza, tyng demokratiyalyq kýshterding keluin qamtamasyz etui kerek. Jana biylik әleumettik tendikting ornatyluyn, Qazaqstan túrghyndarynyng bәrining birdey erkindigin, materialdyq qamtamasyzdyghyn, joghary sapaly bilim men mәdeniyetke qol jetkizuin,.. qamtamasyz etui kerek. Qazaqstan túrghyndarynyng materialdyq jaghdayy Reseydegiden artyq boluy kerek. Barlyq qazaqstandyqtardyng orta jәne shaghyn biznes jýrgizui soltýstiktegi shaghyn qalalarda tamaq jәne jenil ónerkәsip oryndarynyng ashyluy, onda sapaly ónim óndirilui, shetten kelgen qazaqtardyng solargha kóptep ornalasuy qamtamasyz etilui kerek.

Osynday ózgerister dýniyejýzi halyqaralyq sayasy jәne qúqyq qorghau úiymdarynyng kózinshe jasaluy kerek. Solarmen, әsirese Batys qoghamdarymen, AQSh jәne NATO-men tyghyz baylanysta bolu kerek.

Resey–Ukraina janjalynan jәne onyng saldarlarynan tughan oy úshqyndary osynday. Búl – jeke adamnyng subektivti pikiri. Degenmen, ózin-ózi basqara almaghan qoghamda jeke oy aitugha da mýmkindik bolmay qalatyn jaghdaylar az bolmaghan. Pәrmendi әreket jasalmasa, satushy rólin atqaryp jýrgen biylikting ótimdi tauarynyng da tausylatyn uaqyty alys emes ekendigin әr ziyaly sanasynan shygharugha tiyisti emes.

Qanaghat JÝKEShEV

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