Jankeldi Shymshyqov. Kedendik odaqtyng shyndyghy
Resey Federasiyasy, Belarusi jәne Qazaqstan Respublikasynyng Kedendik Odaghy men bolashaq Birtútas ekonomikalyq Kenistigining qabyl alugha bolmaytyn teris jaqtary:
1. Milliondaghan adamdardyng taghdyry sheshiletin, orasan zor sayasi, ekonomikalyq әleumettik manyzy bar, elimizding egemendigi men tәuelsizdigin anyqtaytyn, sayyp kelgende býkil halyqtyn, qazaq últy men onyng memlekettiligining keleshegin sheshetin mәselening jalpy halyqtyq talqylaugha (referendumgha) salynbay, at tóbelindey biyliktegi toptyng at-ýsti kelistire saluy - órkeniyettilik pen adamy ústanymdardy ayaq asty etu dep baghalaugha bolady.
2.Kedendik Odaqtyng (RF, BR, QR) Qazaqstan ekonomikasyna, Birtútas ekonomikalyq Kenistik onyn qarjy jәne sayasi jýiesine qanshalyqty paydaly jәne qanshalyqty ziyandy ekenine jan-jaqty ghylymi, qoghamdyq, teuelsiz saraptama jýrgizilip, onyng әleumettik, ekonomikalyq, qarjylyq jәne sayasy saldaryna bagha berilip, ong men soly jariyalanyp, qatardaghy azamattar týgili ghalymdar men mamandar pikiri esepke alynghan joq.
Resey Federasiyasy, Belarusi jәne Qazaqstan Respublikasynyng Kedendik Odaghy men bolashaq Birtútas ekonomikalyq Kenistigining qabyl alugha bolmaytyn teris jaqtary:
1. Milliondaghan adamdardyng taghdyry sheshiletin, orasan zor sayasi, ekonomikalyq әleumettik manyzy bar, elimizding egemendigi men tәuelsizdigin anyqtaytyn, sayyp kelgende býkil halyqtyn, qazaq últy men onyng memlekettiligining keleshegin sheshetin mәselening jalpy halyqtyq talqylaugha (referendumgha) salynbay, at tóbelindey biyliktegi toptyng at-ýsti kelistire saluy - órkeniyettilik pen adamy ústanymdardy ayaq asty etu dep baghalaugha bolady.
2.Kedendik Odaqtyng (RF, BR, QR) Qazaqstan ekonomikasyna, Birtútas ekonomikalyq Kenistik onyn qarjy jәne sayasi jýiesine qanshalyqty paydaly jәne qanshalyqty ziyandy ekenine jan-jaqty ghylymi, qoghamdyq, teuelsiz saraptama jýrgizilip, onyng әleumettik, ekonomikalyq, qarjylyq jәne sayasy saldaryna bagha berilip, ong men soly jariyalanyp, qatardaghy azamattar týgili ghalymdar men mamandar pikiri esepke alynghan joq.
3. Kedendik Odaqty (RF, BR, QR) ýsh ay ishinde qauyrt qúryp jariya etkende dýnie jýzinde әr kezende, әr dengeyde qýrylyp әreket etip jatqan halyqaralyq integrasiyalyq (ekonomikalyq odaqtyn (60-tan astam) )
qúrylu, qalyptastyru jәne damu tәjiriybesi esepke alynghan joq. Mysaly, Evropa Odaghy qúryluy men býgingi dengeyge jetuine 60 jyl qajet boldy.
Mәselen, 1951-57 jyldary alghashqy dayyndyq satysynda Europanyng kómir men bolat birlestigi qýrylyp, kómir men bolattyng jalpy rynogi iske asyryldy.
1958-1966 jyldary ekinshi satysynda Erkin sauda aimaghy (ESA) qú-rylyp, Europa qauymdastyq ishinde ESA-da kedendik tólemder joyylyp, ýshinshi eldermen birdey kedendik tarif engizip, birdey agrarlyq sayasat jýzege asyrylatyn boldy.
1968-1986 jyldary ýshinshi satyda Kedendik Odaq qýrylyp, GhZJ-ghylymy zertteu jýmystary, tehnologiyalyq damu men qorshaghan ortany qorghau salasynda biregey sayasat engizildi. Sonymen qatar valuta qarjy salasynda integrasiya bastalyp, EKU biregey eseptik birlik engizildi.
1987-1992 jyldary tórtinshi satysynda Jalpy rynok qýrylyp, mýshe elder arasynda kapital men jýmys kýshining erkin qozghalysy, bólimsheler qúru erkindigi, qyzmetter saudasynyng erkindigi, basqasha aitsaq 4 erkindik (tauar, qyzmet, kapital, júmys kýshi) jýzege asyp energetika, kólik, әleumettik jәne aimaqtyq damuda biregey sayasat engizildi.
1993 jyldan besinshi satysynda Ekonomikalyq Europalyq Odaq qalyptasyp, ekonomika men sayasatta integrasiya kýsheyip, valuta men aqsha nesie sayasatynyng birtútas ortalyghy qýrylyp, 1999 jyldyng qantarynan esepteuge qajet euro, al 2003 jyldan qolma qol aqsha euro engizilip, Europalyq Valutalyq Odaq qúryldy.
Býl ýrdis Europa integrasiyasynda kelesi satyda Birtútas Europa konstitusiyasyn qabyldaugha jәne sayasy odaq qúrugha aparuy yqtimal. Búdan jasalatyn qorytyndy «asyqpaghan arbamen qoyangha jetedi». Osynday bayypty integrasiyalyq sayasatty ústanyp otyrghandardyng qataryna Europalyq Odaqtan basqa NAFTA-ny ( soltýstik amerikanyng erkin erkin sauda aimaghy, 1988j.), ASEAN-dy (Ontýstik Shyghys Aziya elderinining qauymdastyghy, 1967j.), LAIY-dy (latyn amerikalyq intergasiyalyq qauymdastyghy, 1960j.) jәne t.b. jatqyzugha bolady.
4. Ghylymy túrghydan ekonomikalyq intergasiyany anyqtasaq, onda ol halyqaralyq enbek bólisi negizinde eki nemese odan da kóp ýlttyq memleketterding birigu ýderisi jәne ózara túraqty óndiristik ekonomikalyq baylanystardyng qalyptasuy. Búl týrghydan alghanda Resey de, Qazaqstan da óte úqsas ekonomikalyq qúrylym qalyptasqan, negizinen, birdey shiykizat óndirisine tәueldi elder (múnay, gaz, metal, biday t.b.). Sóitip ekonomikalyq tiyimdilikke aparatyn әrtýrli enbek bólinisine say erekshe mamandandyrylyp, aiyryqsha ónim óndirip, absolutti nemese salystyrmaly óndiristik artyqshylyqtary alshaq, ekonomikalary ózara almasu arqyly zor paydalylyqqa qol jetkizetin memleketter (RF, QR) emes, kerisinshe, olar kóp rette bәsekelester. Ásirese, shiykizat óndiriletin salalarda ( uran, altyn, mýlay, gaz, qara metall, týrli týsti metall, auyl sharuashylyq ónimderi t.b.).
Endeshe, obektivtik ekonomikalyq zandylyq túrghysynan kelgende Kedendik Odaq kóleminde eki elding ekonomikasynda bәsekelestik bәsensiydi, Reseylik salalyq monopolizm oryn aldy. Qysqa merzimde Resey ekonomikasy paydagha shyghary sózsiz, óitkeni onyng shiykizat salasynyng bәsekege qabilettiligi QR ekonomikasynan joghary. Alayda úzaq merzim kezinde eki elding de bәsekening tejeluinen ekonomikasy zardap shegip, damu karqyny tómendep, tiyimdiligi azayady.
5. Kenester Odaghy ydyrap, tәuelsiz memleketter dostastyghy qúrylghaly 20-jylgha juyq uaqyt ótkende RF men QR ekonomikalarynda qýrylymdyq jaghynan alghanda pәlendey ong ózgerister bolghan joq. Kerisinshe, eki el de ekonomikalyq qýrylymdyq sheginis jasap, shiykizat tәueldiligin terendete týsti. Mәselen, Qazaqstan Respublikasynda 1990 jyly Jalpy Ishki Ónimning qúramynda ónerkәsipting ýlesi 17%, múnay-gaz - 4%, auyl sharuashylyghy-38% bolsa, qazirgi derekterge sýiensek ónerkәsip- 7%, auyl sharuashylyghy- 8%, al múnay-gaz - 63% bolghanyn moyyndau kerek. Áriyne, Belarusi ekonomikasynyng týtastyghyn saqtap qaldy. Alayda olar da jana innovasiyalyq tehnologiyalardy iygerip, onyng negizinde jana industriyalyq ekonomika qýra alghan joq. Endeshe kedendik odaq býrynghy eski Kenestik Odaqtyng tiyimsiz ekonomikasynyng shala jansar sýlbasy ghana bolary haq.
6. Qazaqstanda jýrgizilgen jekeshelendiru saldarynan shet el kapitalyna teueldilik qalyptasty. Mysaly 2008 jyly tau-ken ónerkәsibinde 1871 kәsiporyn әreket etse, onyn 146-sy shet el kәsiporyndary, 1722 jeke, tek qana 3 memlekettik kәsiporyn, onyng ózinde 2-shaghyn, 1 -orta, bir-de bir iri kәsiporyn joq. Óndeu ónerkәsibinde 20 233 kәsiporyn bar. Memlekettik kәsiporyndardyng ýzyn sany 290 nemese bar joghy 1%-dan sәl joghary, onyng tek 4 -eui ghana iri kәsiporyn.
Qazaqstandaghy barlyq kesiporyndar ishindegi memlekettik menshiktegi kәsiporyndardyng ýlesi 11%-gha juyq ónerkesiptik óndiris qýrylymyndaghy memleket ýlesi 1%-dan tómen, al shet eldik kesiporyndardyng ónerkәsiptik óndiristegi ýlesi 25%-gha jaqyndaghan.
Eger shet el kapitalynyng aralasuymen qýrylghan qýqyqtyq jaghynan memlekettik emes menshikti nazargha alsaq, onda shet el menshigining ýlesi 43%-dan asyp jyghylady. Múnday jaghdayda kedendik odaqtaghy Qazaqstan biyligi ekonomikagha pәrmendi әser ete almaytyny belgili. Mysaly, Europa qauymdastyghyndaghy memlekettik kәsiporyndardyng janadan jasalghan qúngha ýlesi 12,5%, negizgi qorlargha salynghan kýrdeli qarjylardyng 20% juyghy jatady. Memleket defolt jaghdayynda. Syrtqy qaryzy -$111 mlrd. Búl elding Jalpy Ishki Ónimine ten. Dýniyege kelgen әrbir Qazaqstan azamatynyng shetelding aldyndaghy qaryzy $7,5 myn. Múnyng bәri «Qazaqmys», Euraziya toby, «Mittalstili» siyaqty oligarhiyalyq toptardyng 15 jyl boyy budjetke tólem tólemeuinen, ekonomikanyng 20%-yn qúraytyn múnay salasynan $78 mlrd-tyng budjetke týspeuinen jәne el ekonomikasyn sheteldik kompaniyalardyng basqaruynan tuyndap otyr.
Qoryta kelgende, Qazaqstan Respublikasynyn Ýkmeti RF nemese Belarusi siyaqty Kedendik Odaqtyn ekonomikalyq súraqtaryn sheshu barysynda basymdylyq tanyta almaydy, óitkeni ekonomikadaghy Qazaqstan memleketining ýlesi mýldem mardymsyz.
7. Kedendik Odaq (RF, BR, QR) teng odaqtastar birlestigi emes. Odaq bolghannan keyin teng qý-qyly, teng qabyrghaly, birdey dauys mólsheri, bar mýsheler birigui kerek edi. KO-nyng komissiyasyn alsaq, mýnda Reseyding dauys ýlesi 57%, al Br men QR 21,5 dauystan bólisken, ózinen on ese ýlken elmen teng qabyrghaly odaq qúrylmaytynyn 70 jyldyng tәjiriybesi kórsetti. Býl jerde týsiniksiz mәsele Belarusiyada 2010 jyly 9,5 mln adam meken etse, Qazaqstanda 16,5 mln. adam túrghyn bar. QR túrghyn sany BR-nan 1,8 ese artyq jalpy ishki ónim kólemi 2 eseden astam kóp bolsa da, dauys mólsheri birdey. Jaraydy, býl asa manyzdy emes delik, al Reseyding KO komissiyasynda 57% dauyspen eki elding qosylyp qarsy shyqsa da (57% > 43%) basymdylyq tanytyp, óz mýddesin jýzege asyratyny aidan anyq. Búnday birlestikti kim odaq dep aita alady? Logikalyq túrghydan kelgende múnday dauys arasalmaghy BR men QR-ding Resey Federasiyasyna bodandyqqa kirgenin aiqyn kórsetip túr. Aynalysqa týsetin tovarlar men qyzmetterding jalpy tarifterining 90% Resey tarifterining dengeyine keltiriluge tiyisti.
Sәuir aiynda (Kaz.pravda, 2 sәuir 2010j.) Qazaqstan tauarlar tarifterining 47,7% Resey tarifteri dengeyine keltirildi. Syrttan keletin tauarlargha bizding kedendik salyqtar men tólemder Resey Federasiyasynda ortasha eseppen alghanda tauar qýnynyng 10%- 16% qúrasa, bizde - 5%- 6% dengeyinde. Eger býkil importtyq tarifterdi Resey dengeyine kótersek, búl RF men BR basqa shet elden keletin import tauarlarynyng baghasy kem degende 5% -10% gha kóteriletinin kórsetip túr.
Áriyne, býl qysqa merzimde ýkimetting malaqayyn aspangha atyp quanghan 61 mlrd. tenge týsimin berui mýmkin. Alayda úzaq merzimde kóptegen ozyq elderding sapaly ónimi importqa keluden qalyp, Qazaqstan tútynushylar RF men BR eskirgen tehnologiyalarynyng sapasyz ónimine telmirip qalary sózsiz. Endeshe Kedendik Odaqtyng qarapayym tútynushygha bereri qymbatshylyq pen sapasyzdyq.
8. Qazaqstan Respublikasynda ashyq ekonomika qýryldy. Oghan dәlel jalpy ishki ónimmen syrtqy ekonomikalyq ainalym kólemining arasalmaghy, birdey, al key jyldary syrtqy ekonomikalyq ainalym kólemi JIÓ - 18,3 mlrd. $ qýrasa, syrtqy ekonomikalyq ainalym kólemi 19,31 mlrd. $ (eksport 10,34 mlrd. $, import 8,97 mlrd. $,) boldy. Al 2008 jyly syrtqy ekonomikalyq ainalym kólemi 124,9 mlrd. $ (eksport 76,35mlrd. $, import-48,55 mlrd. $) JIÓ kólemine para-par. Býl bizding ekonomikamyz ýshin Kedendik sayasattyn, syrtqy saudalyq, monetarlyq jәne tariftik retteushi tetikterding qanshalyqty manyzdy ekenin kórsetedi. Ekonomikany retteudegi osy aspaptar men tútqalardy RF -gha óz erkimizben beruimiz ekonomikalyq qauipsizdik pen tәuelsizdikke núqsan keltireri sózsiz.
Eksportqa shygharatyn Qazaqstan óndirisining 300 tarta tauary bolsa, olardyng 200 atauynyng jalpy týsimi 10 mln. $ gha da jetpeydi. Tek 10 týrli tauar milliard $ dan astam týsim berse, tek jalghyz eksporttaghy 45,51 mlrd $ týsim týsiretin tauar mýnay bolyp tabylady. Sóitip, býkil eksporttyng 61% mýnay men gaz qýraydy. Sondyqtan Kedendik Odaqqa kirgende Resey Federasiyasyna tәueldilik arta týseri jәne bәsekege qabilettiligi kemy týsui әbden anyq.
9. Resey Federasiyasy men Belarusi Respublikasynyn óndiristik mýmkindikteri óndeu ónerkәsibinde Qazaqstanmen salystyrghanda anaghýrlym joghary. Ásirese, shaghyn jәne orta bizneske kelsek, Qazaqstandyq shaghyn kәsiporyndardyng bәsekege qabilettiligi tómen. Sondyqtan Kedendik Odaq onsyz da túralap kóterile almay jatqan Qazaqstandyq shaghyn, orta bizneske qosymsha soqqy bereri sozsiz.
10. RF nyng auyl sharuashylyghy, әsirese egin sharuashylyghy Qazaqstan ekonomikasyna bәsekeles ekeni sózsiz. Sondyqtan kedendik, tariftik aspaptardy Resey óz qolynda ústap, qoldana otyryp Qazaqstannyng bәsekeles auyl sharuashylyghyna oisyrata soqqy bereri haq. Mәselen, et ónimderine kelsek. Maldy mindetti týrde boynyalarda soydy ereje týlyp, dәstýrlep soyylghan mal etine tosqauyl qoy arqyly, eldegi et ónimining baghasy 10% jogharlaghanyn tilge tiyek etsek te bolady.
Sonymen qoryta kelsek, Kedendik Odaq (RF, BR, QR) jan-jaqty oilastyrylyp, kópshiliktin, ghylymy sarapshylardyng baghasyn alghan úiym emes. Onyng ong әserinen sayasi, ekonomikalyq, qarjylyq, menedjmenttik zardaptary asyp týsedi.
2010 jylghy 20 jeltoqsanda Múhtar Shahanov aghamyzdyng tapsyrmasymen oryndalghan.
Oryndaushy: e.gh.k., professor Jankeldi Erdenúly Shymshyqov.